Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gent v Union Saint-Gilloise

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 18:30 UTC

Final: Gent 0–0 Union Saint-Gilloise

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gent (Local)

Prediction 23.18%4.31fair odd
EV +10.10%
Edge +2.13%
Kelly +2.69%
Growth +0.272%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.45%23.12%23.16%24.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.094.054.7526.67%24.44%24.69%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Saint-Gilloise (Visit)

Prediction 50.23%1.99fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -3.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.42%50.28%50.19%53.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.821.851.9360.24%55.09%54.05%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.59%3.76fair odd
EV +1.04%
Edge +0.274%
Kelly +0.372%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.90%26.60%26.64%27.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.483.503.8033.33%28.76%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gent (Local): 23.18%; Union Saint-Gilloise (Visit): 50.23%; Draw: 26.59%. For Gent (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.31. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.45%EV +10.10%E +2.13%K +2.69%G +0.272%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.98%EV -9.58%E -5.32%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.57%EV +1.04%E +0.274%K +0.372%G +0.004%2.9%2026-05-21 17:50
ATG (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.45%EV +10.10%E +2.13%K +2.69%G +0.272%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.98%EV -9.58%E -5.32%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.57%EV +1.04%E +0.274%K +0.372%G +0.004%2.9%2026-05-21 17:50
Unibet (NL)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV +4.30%E +0.956%K +1.23%G +0.053%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -12.09%E -6.91%K -16.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-21 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV +4.30%E +0.956%K +1.23%G +0.053%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -12.09%E -6.91%K -16.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-21 18:00
Casumo🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV +4.30%E +0.956%K +1.23%G +0.053%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -12.09%E -6.91%K -16.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-21 18:00
betPARX🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV +4.30%E +0.956%K +1.23%G +0.053%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -12.09%E -6.91%K -16.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-21 18:00
LeoVegas🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.10%EV +0.825%E +0.190%K +0.246%G +0.002%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.05%EV -13.10%E -7.57%K -17.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -5.61%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-21 18:19
Unibet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.15%EV -0.334%E -0.078%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.87%EV -13.60%E -7.91%K -18.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-21 18:20
BetRivers🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.15%EV -0.334%E -0.078%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.87%EV -13.60%E -7.91%K -18.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-21 17:50
TABtouch🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.15%EV -0.334%E -0.078%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.87%EV -13.60%E -7.91%K -18.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-21 18:20
Grosvenor🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.08%EV -0.334%E -0.078%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.02%EV -14.10%E -8.25%K -19.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-21 17:50
Pinnacle🎯4.29I 23.31%NM 22.55%EV -0.566%E -0.132%K -0.172%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.12%EV -3.05%E -1.58%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.33%EV -5.87%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-21 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.13%EV -1.49%E -0.351%K -0.459%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -14.61%E -8.59%K -20.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.03%EV -8.26%E -2.40%K -3.37%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-21 17:50
1xBet🎯4.22I 23.70%NM 22.99%EV -2.19%E -0.519%K -0.680%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.79%EV -4.06%E -2.12%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%EV -1.62%E -0.437%K -0.599%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-21 18:20
PMU (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -2.65%E -0.631%K -0.829%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.80%EV -15.61%E -9.29%K -22.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-21 18:00
Marathon Bet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.48%EV -3.81%E -0.918%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.71%EV -7.57%E -4.12%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.81%EV -7.47%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-21 18:10
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -4.97%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.62%EV -6.07%E -3.24%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-21 18:20
Fanatics🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -4.97%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.62%EV -6.07%E -3.24%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-21 17:50
Everygame🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.97%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.45%EV -4.56%E -2.40%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-21 18:09
Suprabets🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -4.97%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.50%EV -5.06%E -2.68%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.68%EV -10.13%E -3.00%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-21 18:08
BetOnline.ag🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -4.97%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -5.56%E -2.96%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-21 18:10
LowVig.ag🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -4.97%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -5.56%E -2.96%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-21 18:10
BetAnything🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -4.97%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -5.56%E -2.96%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-21 18:10
Virgin Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.30%EV -4.97%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 52.62%EV -16.61%E -10.01%K -25.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.07%EV -10.92%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%14.5%2026-05-21 18:20
LiveScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.30%EV -4.97%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 52.62%EV -16.61%E -10.01%K -25.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.07%EV -10.92%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%14.5%2026-05-21 18:20
Betclic (FR)🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.26%EV -6.13%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -7.07%E -3.82%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -2.95%E -0.807%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-21 17:50
NordicBet🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.13%EV -6.13%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -4.56%E -2.40%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-21 18:09
Betsson🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.13%EV -6.13%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -4.56%E -2.40%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-21 18:10
DraftKings🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.61%EV -4.06%E -2.12%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -5.61%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-21 18:00
BetUS🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.14%EV -6.07%E -3.24%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -5.61%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-21 18:10
Coolbet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -7.07%E -3.82%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-21 17:50
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -7.07%E -3.82%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-21 18:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -7.07%E -3.82%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-21 17:50
Betr (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -7.07%E -3.82%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-21 17:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -7.07%E -3.82%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-21 17:50
Bovada🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -6.07%E -3.24%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-21 18:19
Bet Victor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -6.07%E -3.24%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-21 18:19
theScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -8.08%E -4.41%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-21 17:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -7.07%E -3.82%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-21 17:50
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.07%E -3.82%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-21 18:00
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.07%E -3.82%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-21 18:10
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.07%E -3.82%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-21 18:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.07%E -3.82%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-21 18:00
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.58%E -5.32%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.33%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-21 18:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -9.61%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -4.56%E -2.40%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-21 17:49
Sky Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -9.61%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -9.58%E -5.32%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -13.58%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-21 18:10
Winamax (DE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -10.76%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -9.58%E -5.32%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -1.62%E -0.437%K -0.599%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-21 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -11.92%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.58%E -5.32%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.15%EV -8.26%E -2.40%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-21 18:10
BoyleSports🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -11.92%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.11%EV -8.08%E -4.41%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-21 18:10
NetBet (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.13%EV -11.92%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.23%EV -12.09%E -6.91%K -16.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.33%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-21 18:10
SportsBet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 22.94%EV -11.92%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 49.82%EV -12.09%E -6.91%K -16.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.24%EV -14.91%E -4.66%K -6.78%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-21 18:10
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -13.08%E -3.49%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -8.08%E -4.41%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-21 17:50
PlayUp🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -13.08%E -3.49%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.42%EV -6.07%E -3.24%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.33%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-21 18:10
Winamax (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -13.08%E -3.49%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.78%EV -10.59%E -5.95%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-21 17:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 22.24%EV -13.08%E -3.49%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 49.95%EV -16.11%E -9.65%K -24.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.81%EV -20.23%E -6.74%K -10.12%G +0.000%19.9%2026-05-21 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.94%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.43%1.3%2026-05-21 18:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.94%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.43%1.3%2026-05-21 18:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.94%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.43%1.3%2026-05-21 18:20
Matchbook4.50I 22.22%NM 21.94%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.43%1.3%2026-05-21 18:20
Smarkets4.50I 22.22%NM 21.80%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.57%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.63%1.9%2026-05-21 18:20
Kalshi4.35I 22.99%NM 22.30%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.53%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.17%3.1%2026-05-21 18:20