Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gent v Standard Liege

2026-09-18 18:45 UTC — Belgium First Div

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gent (Local)

Prediction 42.59%2.35fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.889%
Kelly -1.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.27%42.59%42.59%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.182.182.3050.00%45.95%45.87%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Standard Liege (Visit)

Prediction 28.22%3.54fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -0.680%
Kelly -0.957%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.58%28.22%28.22%28.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.203.153.4632.79%31.20%31.75%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.19%3.43fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.85%29.19%29.19%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.113.073.3033.33%32.11%32.57%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Gent (Local): 42.59%; Standard Liege (Visit): 28.22%; Draw: 29.19%. For Gent (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.35. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.30, with an expected value of -2.04%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.04%E -0.889%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.68%EV -5.46%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.56%EV -5.14%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.04%E -0.889%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.68%EV -5.46%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.56%EV -5.14%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.04%E -0.889%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.68%EV -5.46%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.56%EV -5.14%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -4.17%E -1.85%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.06%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -4.17%E -1.85%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.06%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -4.17%E -1.85%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.06%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -4.17%E -1.85%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.06%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
1xBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.43%EV -6.30%E -2.87%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.62%EV -2.35%E -0.680%K -0.957%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.95%EV -3.68%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-12 14:20
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -6.30%E -2.87%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -11.10%E -3.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -10.97%E -3.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.55%EV -7.15%E -3.28%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -11.10%E -3.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.70%EV -10.97%E -3.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.55%EV -7.15%E -3.28%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -11.10%E -3.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.70%EV -10.97%E -3.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 14:20
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.55%EV -7.15%E -3.28%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -11.10%E -3.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.70%EV -10.97%E -3.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.27%EV -7.58%E -3.49%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -12.51%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -12.43%E -4.14%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.27%EV -7.58%E -3.49%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -12.51%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -12.43%E -4.14%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.27%EV -7.58%E -3.49%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -12.51%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -12.43%E -4.14%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.86%EV -14.82%E -7.41%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -12.51%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -8.06%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.85%EV -14.82%E -7.41%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 27.58%EV -10.26%E -3.22%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 28.57%EV -10.39%E -3.38%K -5.02%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-12 14:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -14.82%E -7.41%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.72%EV -11.10%E -3.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.63%EV -10.97%E -3.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-12 18:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.26%EV -14.82%E -7.41%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.37%EV -13.92%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.37%EV -10.97%E -3.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.