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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Gent v Standard Liege

Inicio: 2026-09-18 18:45 UTC

Final: Gent 2–1 Standard Liege

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Gent (Local)

Predicción 53.27%1.88momio equitativo
EV -3.05%
Ventaja -1.67%
Kelly -3.72%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.80%53.19%53.35%54.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.651.751.751.8260.61%57.12%57.14%54.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Standard Liege (Visitante)

Predicción 20.63%4.85momio equitativo
EV +2.10%
Ventaja +0.425%
Kelly +0.532%
Crecimiento +0.011%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.50%20.64%20.64%22.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.504.504.9525.00%22.23%22.22%20.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.10%3.83momio equitativo
EV -2.90%
Ventaja -0.779%
Kelly -1.07%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.23%26.17%26.02%27.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.493.503.7230.30%28.64%28.57%26.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Gent (Local): 53.27%; Standard Liege (Visitante): 20.63%; Empate: 26.10%. Para Standard Liege (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.85. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.95, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.10%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.54%EV -5.71%E -3.23%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.50%EV +2.10%E +0.425%K +0.532%G +0.011%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.95%EV -2.90%E -0.779%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-18 15:25
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.86%EV -3.05%E -1.67%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.04%EV -0.992%E -0.207%K -0.261%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-18 10:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.86%EV -3.05%E -1.67%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.04%EV -0.992%E -0.207%K -0.261%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-18 10:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.86%EV -3.05%E -1.67%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.04%EV -0.992%E -0.207%K -0.261%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-18 10:20
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.14%EV -7.31%E -4.20%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.04%EV -3.05%E -0.650%K -0.826%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.73%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 15:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -9.44%E -5.55%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -3.05%E -0.650%K -0.826%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -3.42%E -0.925%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 15:25
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.96%EV -4.11%E -2.28%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.12%EV -4.09%E -0.879%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -12.56%E -3.75%K -5.34%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 15:29
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.96%EV -4.11%E -2.28%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.12%EV -4.09%E -0.879%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -12.56%E -3.75%K -5.34%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 15:30
1xBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.82%EV -3.58%E -1.98%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.69%EV -4.70%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.48%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-18 12:48
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.78%E -3.87%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -5.12%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -3.42%E -0.925%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 15:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.43%EV -6.24%E -3.55%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -5.12%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.03%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-18 15:30
BetAnything🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.43%EV -6.24%E -3.55%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -5.12%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.03%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-18 15:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -5.71%E -3.23%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -5.12%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 15:25
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -7.31%E -4.20%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -5.12%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.03%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 15:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.69%EV -5.71%E -3.23%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -5.12%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.95%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 07:55
Casumo🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.69%EV -5.71%E -3.23%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -5.12%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.95%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 08:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.69%EV -5.71%E -3.23%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -5.12%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.95%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 07:55
betPARX🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.69%EV -5.71%E -3.23%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -5.12%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.95%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 07:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.31%E -4.20%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -5.12%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.29%EV -7.60%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-18 15:29
Suprabets🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.81%EV -8.37%E -4.87%K -11.63%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -5.12%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 15:22
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.11%E -2.28%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.18%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.03%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 11:10
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.11%E -2.28%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.18%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.03%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 11:09
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.11%E -2.28%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.18%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.03%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 10:49
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.78%E -3.87%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.18%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.03%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 15:30
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.78%E -3.87%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.18%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.03%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 15:30
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.78%E -3.87%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.18%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.03%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 15:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.78%E -3.87%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.18%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.03%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 15:30
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -6.78%E -3.87%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.18%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.25%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 15:20
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -6.78%E -3.87%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.18%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.25%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 15:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -6.78%E -3.87%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.18%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.25%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 15:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -6.78%E -3.87%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.18%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.25%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 15:25
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.66%EV -9.44%E -5.55%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -7.18%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -8.64%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-18 15:29
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.25%EV -9.44%E -5.55%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.12%EV -7.18%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.25%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-18 15:20
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.64%EV -11.57%E -6.97%K -17.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.79%EV -7.18%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.58%EV -12.56%E -3.75%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 15:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.11%E -2.28%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -9.24%E -2.10%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -6.03%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 11:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.18%E -2.91%K -6.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -9.24%E -2.10%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -6.03%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 11:10
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.41%EV -7.31%E -4.20%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.12%EV -9.24%E -2.10%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.46%EV -4.73%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 15:30
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.22%EV -7.31%E -4.20%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -9.24%E -2.10%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.12%EV -12.56%E -3.75%K -5.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 07:55
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.87%EV -6.78%E -3.87%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -9.24%E -2.10%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -13.86%E -4.20%K -6.03%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 15:29
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.15%EV -7.84%E -4.53%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -9.24%E -2.10%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -13.86%E -4.20%K -6.03%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-18 10:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.15%EV -7.84%E -4.53%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -9.24%E -2.10%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -13.86%E -4.20%K -6.03%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-18 10:20
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.15%EV -7.84%E -4.53%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -9.24%E -2.10%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -13.86%E -4.20%K -6.03%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-18 10:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.30%EV -8.37%E -4.87%K -11.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -9.24%E -2.10%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.26%EV -13.86%E -4.20%K -6.03%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-18 10:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.30%EV -8.37%E -4.87%K -11.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -9.24%E -2.10%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.26%EV -13.86%E -4.20%K -6.03%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-18 10:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.30%EV -8.37%E -4.87%K -11.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -9.24%E -2.10%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.26%EV -13.86%E -4.20%K -6.03%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-18 10:20
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.19%EV -7.84%E -4.53%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -10.69%E -2.47%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -6.03%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-18 15:30
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.42%EV -9.44%E -5.55%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.58%EV -10.69%E -2.47%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -13.86%E -4.20%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 15:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.71%EV -12.10%E -7.34%K -18.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.61%EV -11.31%E -2.63%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.69%EV -9.95%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-18 15:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%EV -7.31%E -4.20%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -12.34%E -2.90%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.24%EV -9.42%E -2.72%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-18 12:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.99%EV -8.37%E -4.87%K -11.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -13.37%E -3.18%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -6.03%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-18 15:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 52.65%EV -9.97%E -5.90%K -14.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.18%EV -13.37%E -3.18%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.17%EV -11.25%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-18 12:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.80%EV -4.11%E -2.28%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -15.43%E -3.76%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.25%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-17 05:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.76%EV -7.31%E -4.20%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%EV -17.49%E -4.37%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -8.64%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-18 12:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.68%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%0.5%2026-09-18 15:30
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.44%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09%0.9%2026-09-18 15:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.44%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09%0.9%2026-09-18 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.44%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09%0.9%2026-09-18 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.44%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09%0.9%2026-09-18 15:30
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.88%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-09-18 15:10