Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gent v Leuven

Kickoff: 2026-09-03 18:30 UTC

Final: Gent 1–0 Leuven

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gent (Local)

Prediction 56.60%1.77fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -5.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.69%56.59%56.44%58.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.641.641.7064.10%61.14%60.98%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leuven (Visit)

Prediction 18.37%5.44fair odd
EV +7.11%
Edge +1.22%
Kelly +1.47%
Growth +0.105%

assuming max odds 5.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.65%18.31%18.49%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.125.005.8321.74%19.52%20.00%17.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.03%4.00fair odd
EV -2.14%
Edge -0.547%
Kelly -0.734%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.49%25.10%25.06%26.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.643.633.9129.41%27.51%27.59%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gent (Local): 56.60%; Leuven (Visit): 18.37%; Draw: 25.03%. For Leuven (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.44. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.83, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.83I 17.15%NM 16.65%EV +7.11%E +1.22%K +1.47%G +0.105%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.55%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-03 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.79%EV +5.64%E +0.980%K +1.19%G +0.067%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -6.14%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-03 18:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.79%EV +5.64%E +0.980%K +1.19%G +0.067%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -6.14%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-03 18:25
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.10%EV -6.05%E -3.64%K -9.16%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.93%EV +2.88%E +0.515%K +0.627%G +0.018%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.97%EV -8.64%E -2.37%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -9.44%E -5.90%K -15.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV +1.04%E +0.190%K +0.232%G +0.002%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 17:55
Casumo🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.84%EV -7.18%E -4.38%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -0.792%E -0.147%K -0.180%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 18:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.84%EV -7.18%E -4.38%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -0.792%E -0.147%K -0.180%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 18:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.84%EV -7.18%E -4.38%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -0.792%E -0.147%K -0.180%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 18:25
betPARX🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.84%EV -7.18%E -4.38%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -0.792%E -0.147%K -0.180%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 18:25
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.31%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 18.06%EV -2.08%E -0.390%K -0.480%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.62%EV -2.14%E -0.547%K -0.734%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-03 18:20
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.06%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV -2.63%E -0.496%K -0.612%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 17:35
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.06%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV -2.63%E -0.496%K -0.612%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 17:35
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.90%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -3.55%E -0.676%K -0.835%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.26%EV -7.74%E -4.75%K -12.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -3.55%E -0.676%K -0.835%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.96%EV -6.39%E -1.71%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 18:25
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.79%EV -8.88%E -5.51%K -14.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -3.55%E -0.676%K -0.835%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 18:24
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.79%EV -8.88%E -5.51%K -14.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -3.55%E -0.676%K -0.835%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 18:24
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -6.61%E -4.01%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -4.47%E -0.859%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 18:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.24%EV -7.18%E -4.38%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.05%EV -4.47%E -0.859%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.24%EV -7.18%E -4.38%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.05%EV -4.47%E -0.859%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:25
BetAnything🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.24%EV -7.18%E -4.38%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.05%EV -4.47%E -0.859%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:25
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.99%EV -7.74%E -4.75%K -12.29%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.55%EV -4.47%E -0.859%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -13.65%E -3.96%K -5.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 18:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.11%EV -8.88%E -5.51%K -14.55%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.71%EV -6.30%E -1.24%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -13.65%E -3.96%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 18:25
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.11%EV -8.88%E -5.51%K -14.55%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.71%EV -6.30%E -1.24%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -13.65%E -3.96%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 18:25
TABtouch🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.11%EV -8.88%E -5.51%K -14.55%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.71%EV -6.30%E -1.24%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -13.65%E -3.96%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 18:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.04%EV -9.44%E -5.90%K -15.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.58%EV -6.30%E -1.24%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -14.90%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-03 17:35
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.76%EV -3.78%E -2.22%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -6.14%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 16:14
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.91%EV -4.35%E -2.57%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -6.14%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 16:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.57%EV -3.78%E -2.22%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 15:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.57%EV -3.78%E -2.22%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 16:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.05%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -6.14%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 17:55
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 18:04
Coolbet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.14%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 17:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 16:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.31%EV -6.61%E -4.01%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 17:55
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.31%EV -6.61%E -4.01%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 17:55
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -8.31%E -5.13%K -13.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -6.14%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 18:00
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.37%EV -8.31%E -5.13%K -13.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-03 17:55
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -8.31%E -5.13%K -13.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-03 18:25
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.12%EV -8.88%E -5.51%K -14.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.12%EV -8.88%E -5.51%K -14.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.12%EV -8.88%E -5.51%K -14.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 18:25
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -9.44%E -5.90%K -15.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-03 18:15
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -11.14%E -7.09%K -19.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-03 17:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -11.14%E -7.09%K -19.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-03 18:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.16%EV -10.57%E -6.69%K -18.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.75%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -14.90%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 18:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.16%EV -10.57%E -6.69%K -18.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.75%EV -8.14%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -14.90%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 18:25
Suprabets🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.13%EV -6.61%E -4.01%K -10.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.90%EV -9.98%E -2.04%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 24.96%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 18:01
Betclic (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -8.31%E -5.13%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -9.98%E -2.04%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 18:10
SportsBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.48%EV -11.71%E -7.50%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.98%EV -9.98%E -2.04%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.54%EV -13.65%E -3.96%K -5.57%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-03 18:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.21%EV -7.18%E -4.38%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -11.82%E -2.46%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.14%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-03 15:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.56%EV -10.57%E -6.69%K -18.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -11.82%E -2.46%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-03 18:25
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -9.44%E -5.90%K -15.74%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -11.82%E -2.46%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-03 18:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.68%EV -8.31%E -5.13%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -15.49%E -3.37%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV -8.64%E -2.37%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-03 15:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.69%EV -8.31%E -5.13%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -15.49%E -3.37%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.90%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.71I 58.48%NM 58.52%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.14%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.34%-0.1%2026-09-03 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.72I 58.14%NM 58.07%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.65%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.29%0.1%2026-09-03 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.71I 58.48%NM 58.21%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%0.5%2026-09-03 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 58.21%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%0.5%2026-09-03 18:25
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%NM 58.17%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.48%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.35%1.1%2026-09-03 18:25
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-09-03 18:20