Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Gent v Leuven

2026-09-03 18:30 UTC — Belgium First Div

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Gent (Local)

Predicción 57.80%1.73momio equitativo
EV -3.47%
Ventaja -2.08%
Kelly -5.17%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.67

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.76%57.76%57.75%59.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.531.601.601.6765.36%62.40%62.50%59.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Leuven (Visitante)

Predicción 18.74%5.34momio equitativo
EV -0.323%
Ventaja -0.061%
Kelly -0.075%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.68%18.70%18.79%19.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.404.884.905.3222.73%20.49%20.41%18.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.46%4.26momio equitativo
EV -3.82%
Ventaja -0.931%
Kelly -1.23%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.82%23.54%23.46%24.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.893.904.1027.78%25.73%25.64%24.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Gent (Local): 57.80%; Leuven (Visitante): 18.74%; Empate: 23.46%. Para Leuven (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 5.34. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 5.32, con un valor esperado de -0.323%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.64%EV -3.47%E -2.08%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.88%EV -4.44%E -0.872%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.48%EV -3.82%E -0.931%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-31 05:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.64%EV -3.47%E -2.08%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.88%EV -4.44%E -0.872%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.48%EV -3.82%E -0.931%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-31 05:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.64%EV -3.47%E -2.08%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.88%EV -4.44%E -0.872%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.48%EV -3.82%E -0.931%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-31 05:05
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -4.62%E -2.80%K -7.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -6.32%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -6.16%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-31 02:03
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -4.62%E -2.80%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -11.00%E -2.32%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -13.20%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-31 02:15
William Hill🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -4.62%E -2.80%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -11.00%E -2.32%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -13.20%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-31 02:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -4.62%E -2.80%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -11.00%E -2.32%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -13.20%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-31 02:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -4.62%E -2.80%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -11.00%E -2.32%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -13.20%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-31 02:15
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.65%EV -5.78%E -3.55%K -9.17%G +0.000%5.32I 18.80%NM 17.97%EV -0.323%E -0.061%K -0.075%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.38%EV -4.05%E -0.991%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-31 01:54
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.14%EV -5.78%E -3.55%K -9.17%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.40%EV -3.51%E -0.681%K -0.845%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.46%EV -5.23%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 02:25
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.30%EV -5.78%E -3.55%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.06%EV -8.19%E -1.67%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -7.34%E -1.86%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 05:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.30%EV -5.78%E -3.55%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.06%EV -8.19%E -1.67%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -7.34%E -1.86%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 05:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.30%EV -5.78%E -3.55%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.06%EV -8.19%E -1.67%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -7.34%E -1.86%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 05:05
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.30%EV -5.78%E -3.55%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.06%EV -8.19%E -1.67%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -7.34%E -1.86%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 05:05
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.70%EV -6.36%E -3.92%K -10.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -1.63%E -0.311%K -0.385%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -3.82%E -0.931%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 01:35
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -6.36%E -3.92%K -10.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -6.32%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.82%E -0.931%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-31 02:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.36%E -3.92%K -10.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -6.32%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -6.16%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 02:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.36%E -3.92%K -10.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -6.32%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -6.16%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 02:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.05%EV -6.36%E -3.92%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -10.07%E -2.10%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -8.51%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-31 03:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.05%EV -6.36%E -3.92%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -10.07%E -2.10%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -8.51%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-31 03:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -6.93%E -4.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -6.32%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.16%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 02:04
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.62%EV -6.93%E -4.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -11.94%E -2.54%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.99%EV -10.86%E -2.86%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-31 05:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.00%EV -7.51%E -4.70%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -1.63%E -0.311%K -0.385%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -3.82%E -0.931%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 05:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -7.51%E -4.70%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -6.32%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -3.82%E -0.931%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-31 04:40
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -7.51%E -4.70%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -6.32%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.86%E -2.86%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 01:53
betano_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -7.51%E -4.70%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -6.32%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.86%E -2.86%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 01:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.77%EV -7.51%E -4.70%K -12.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -11.94%E -2.54%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -10.86%E -2.86%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-31 05:05
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.77%EV -7.51%E -4.70%K -12.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -11.94%E -2.54%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -10.86%E -2.86%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-31 05:05
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.77%EV -7.51%E -4.70%K -12.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -11.94%E -2.54%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -10.86%E -2.86%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-31 05:05
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.52%EV -7.51%E -4.70%K -12.52%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -11.00%E -2.32%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -13.20%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-31 01:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.71%EV -8.09%E -5.09%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -2.57%E -0.494%K -0.612%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.16%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 01:45
Suprabets🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.59%EV -8.09%E -5.09%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.69%EV -8.19%E -1.67%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 23.72%EV -9.45%E -2.45%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-31 04:06
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -8.67%E -5.49%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -1.63%E -0.311%K -0.385%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -6.16%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-31 05:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.12%EV -9.25%E -5.89%K -16.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -1.63%E -0.311%K -0.385%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -6.16%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-31 05:09
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -9.25%E -5.89%K -16.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -6.32%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -6.16%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-31 01:19
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -9.25%E -5.89%K -16.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -6.32%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -10.86%E -2.86%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 01:20
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.35%EV -9.25%E -5.89%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -11.00%E -2.32%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -10.86%E -2.86%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-31 06:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.82%EV -9.25%E -5.89%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -13.81%E -3.00%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -12.03%E -3.21%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-31 05:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.25%EV -9.82%E -6.30%K -17.54%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.80%EV -11.00%E -2.32%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.94%EV -12.50%E -3.35%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-31 02:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.25%EV -9.82%E -6.30%K -17.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -15.69%E -3.49%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -8.51%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-31 02:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.79%EV -9.82%E -6.30%K -17.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -13.81%E -3.00%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.95%EV -13.20%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-31 05:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.79%EV -9.82%E -6.30%K -17.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -13.81%E -3.00%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.95%EV -13.20%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-31 05:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.55%EV -10.40%E -6.71%K -18.91%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.98%EV -11.94%E -2.54%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -10.86%E -2.86%K -3.88%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-31 02:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.11%EV -10.98%E -7.13%K -20.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.12%EV -13.81%E -3.00%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.77%EV -13.20%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-31 02:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 56.97%EV -10.98%E -7.13%K -20.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.94%EV -17.56%E -3.99%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -10.86%E -2.86%K -3.88%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-31 02:05
SportsBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.09%EV -11.56%E -7.55%K -21.81%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -10.07%E -2.10%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -10.86%E -2.86%K -3.88%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-31 01:25
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.66%EV -11.56%E -7.55%K -21.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.26%EV -15.69%E -3.49%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.08%EV -15.55%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-31 01:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%4.9%2026-08-31 07:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.77%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.69%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%8.7%2026-08-31 06:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.77%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.69%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%8.7%2026-08-31 06:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.77%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.69%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%8.7%2026-08-31 06:40
Smarkets1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%10.3%2026-08-31 07:05