Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Genk v Charleroi

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 18:30 UTC

Final: Genk 1–1 Charleroi

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Genk (Local)

Prediction 52.92%1.89fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -3.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.95%52.91%52.89%54.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.741.751.8360.98%57.45%57.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Charleroi (Visit)

Prediction 21.42%4.67fair odd
EV +0.660%
Edge +0.140%
Kelly +0.178%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.47%21.45%21.37%22.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.374.404.7026.67%22.87%22.73%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.66%3.90fair odd
EV +1.35%
Edge +0.342%
Kelly +0.458%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.48%25.63%25.74%27.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.633.653.9533.33%27.55%27.40%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Genk (Local): 52.92%; Charleroi (Visit): 21.42%; Draw: 25.66%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.90. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.80%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%EV +0.660%E +0.140%K +0.178%G +0.001%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.56%EV +1.35%E +0.342%K +0.458%G +0.006%3.1%2026-04-21 18:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.80%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%EV +0.660%E +0.140%K +0.178%G +0.001%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.56%EV +1.35%E +0.342%K +0.458%G +0.006%3.1%2026-04-21 18:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.64%EV -7.91%E -4.55%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -1.48%E -0.322%K -0.412%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -1.21%E -0.315%K -0.426%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-21 18:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.64%EV -7.91%E -4.55%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -1.48%E -0.322%K -0.412%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -1.21%E -0.315%K -0.426%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-21 18:20
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -3.62%E -0.805%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.50%E -0.657%K -0.892%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-21 17:40
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%EV -8.97%E -5.22%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -1.48%E -0.322%K -0.412%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -2.50%E -0.657%K -0.892%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 18:20
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%EV -8.97%E -5.22%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -1.48%E -0.322%K -0.412%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -2.50%E -0.657%K -0.892%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 18:20
LeoVegas🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%EV -8.97%E -5.22%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -1.48%E -0.322%K -0.412%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -2.50%E -0.657%K -0.892%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 18:20
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.99%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -10.05%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -2.50%E -0.657%K -0.892%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 17:30
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -9.50%E -5.56%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -3.62%E -0.805%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -2.50%E -0.657%K -0.892%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 18:10
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -10.03%E -5.90%K -14.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -3.62%E -0.805%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -2.50%E -0.657%K -0.892%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 18:20
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -10.03%E -5.90%K -14.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -3.62%E -0.805%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -2.50%E -0.657%K -0.892%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 18:20
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -10.03%E -5.90%K -14.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -3.62%E -0.805%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -2.50%E -0.657%K -0.892%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.89%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -3.62%E -0.805%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -3.78%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 17:40
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.89%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -3.62%E -0.805%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -3.78%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 17:40
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.03%EV -7.91%E -4.55%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -3.62%E -0.805%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -3.78%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 17:38
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.67%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -10.05%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -3.78%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 17:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.24%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -8.98%E -2.11%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -3.78%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 17:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -11.09%E -6.60%K -16.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -5.76%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -3.78%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-21 18:15
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.01%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 21.04%EV -1.27%E -0.275%K -0.351%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.94%EV -4.04%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-21 18:20
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.33%EV -4.21%E -2.32%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.58%EV +0.446%E +0.095%K +0.121%G +0.001%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.09%EV -5.06%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-21 18:25
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.58%EV -5.76%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -5.06%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 17:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -5.76%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.06%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-21 17:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.06%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -8.98%E -2.11%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -5.06%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-21 17:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.77%EV -12.15%E -7.32%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -5.76%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.57%EV -5.06%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-21 18:20
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.99%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -5.76%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -6.35%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 18:25
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.99%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -5.76%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -6.35%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 18:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.89%EV -8.97%E -5.22%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -12.19%E -2.97%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -6.35%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-21 17:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.75%EV -13.20%E -8.05%K -20.63%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.64%EV -6.84%E -1.57%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.60%EV -6.35%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-21 18:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.75%EV -13.20%E -8.05%K -20.63%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.64%EV -6.84%E -1.57%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.60%EV -6.35%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-21 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.02%EV -6.85%E -3.89%K -9.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -5.76%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.78%EV -7.12%E -1.97%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 18:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -5.76%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -7.63%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 17:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -5.76%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -7.63%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -5.76%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -7.63%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 17:25
BetAnything🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -5.76%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -7.63%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 17:55
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -3.62%E -0.805%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.63%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 18:18
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -3.62%E -0.805%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.63%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 17:54
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -10.05%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -7.63%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-21 17:30
Suprabets🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.15%EV -6.85%E -3.89%K -9.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -3.62%E -0.805%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.06%EV -7.89%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-21 17:58
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.93%EV -8.97%E -5.22%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%EV -8.98%E -2.11%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -8.91%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-21 18:00
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -3.68%E -2.02%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -5.76%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -10.19%E -2.91%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 18:25
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -3.68%E -2.02%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -5.76%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -10.19%E -2.91%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 18:25
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.46%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -10.05%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -10.19%E -2.91%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-21 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.61%EV -8.97%E -5.22%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -10.05%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -10.19%E -2.91%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-21 18:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.33%EV -11.09%E -6.60%K -16.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.54%EV -16.47%E -4.22%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%EV -10.19%E -2.91%K -4.08%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-21 17:25
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -7.26%E -1.68%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -12.76%E -3.75%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-21 17:55
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -7.26%E -1.68%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -12.76%E -3.75%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-21 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -7.26%E -1.68%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -12.76%E -3.75%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-21 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -7.26%E -1.68%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -12.76%E -3.75%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-21 17:55
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.22%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -12.19%E -2.97%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -12.76%E -3.75%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-21 18:25
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.06%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%EV -10.05%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -12.76%E -3.75%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-21 18:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.95%EV -10.03%E -5.90%K -14.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.08%EV -14.33%E -3.58%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -12.76%E -3.75%K -5.32%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-21 18:15
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.65%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -10.05%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -15.33%E -4.64%K -6.66%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-21 18:25
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.41%EV -12.15%E -7.32%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.22%EV -12.19%E -2.97%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -15.33%E -4.64%K -6.66%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-21 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 49.95%EV -11.62%E -6.96%K -17.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.24%EV -19.69%E -5.25%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.81%EV -23.02%E -7.67%K -11.51%G +0.000%19.9%2026-04-21 18:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.87I 53.48%NM 53.32%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.77%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.90%0.3%2026-04-21 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 53.32%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.77%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.90%0.3%2026-04-21 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 53.32%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.77%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.90%0.3%2026-04-21 18:25
Matchbook1.87I 53.48%NM 53.14%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.15%0.6%2026-04-21 18:10
Smarkets1.86I 53.76%NM 52.86%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.92%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.22%1.7%2026-04-21 18:20
Kalshi1.79I 55.87%NM 54.32%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.43%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.25%2.8%2026-04-21 17:55