Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Club Brugge v KV Mechelen

Kickoff: 2026-04-22 18:30 UTC

Final: Club Brugge 6–1 KV Mechelen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Club Brugge (Local)

Prediction 75.76%1.32fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -10.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.91%75.83%75.85%78.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.221.221.2886.21%82.10%81.97%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KV Mechelen (Visit)

Prediction 9.60%10.42fair odd
EV +20.00%
Edge +1.60%
Kelly +1.74%
Growth +0.348%

assuming max odds 12.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.77%9.57%9.57%11.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.7510.079.6012.5012.90%9.93%10.42%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.64%6.83fair odd
EV +4.23%
Edge +0.595%
Kelly +0.692%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 7.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.46%14.60%14.59%17.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.366.407.1220.00%15.72%15.63%14.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Club Brugge (Local): 75.76%; KV Mechelen (Visit): 9.60%; Draw: 14.64%. For KV Mechelen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.42. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 78.35%EV -6.06%E -4.88%K -25.24%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.77%EV +20.00%E +1.60%K +1.74%G +0.348%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.88%EV +2.48%E +0.354%K +0.413%G +0.010%2.9%2026-04-22 18:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 78.35%EV -6.06%E -4.88%K -25.24%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.77%EV +20.00%E +1.60%K +1.74%G +0.348%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.88%EV +2.48%E +0.354%K +0.413%G +0.010%2.9%2026-04-22 18:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.71%EV -7.57%E -6.21%K -34.42%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.24%EV +10.40%E +0.904%K +0.990%G +0.103%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.05%EV -1.18%E -0.175%K -0.206%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-22 18:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.71%EV -7.57%E -6.21%K -34.42%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.24%EV +10.40%E +0.904%K +0.990%G +0.103%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.05%EV -1.18%E -0.175%K -0.206%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-22 18:24
Betsson🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.61%EV -6.81%E -5.54%K -29.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV +10.40%E +0.904%K +0.990%G +0.103%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.20%EV -9.23%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-22 18:14
NordicBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.61%EV -6.81%E -5.54%K -29.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV +10.40%E +0.904%K +0.990%G +0.103%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.20%EV -9.23%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-22 18:14
LeoVegas🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -8.33%E -6.88%K -39.67%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV +10.40%E +0.904%K +0.990%G +0.103%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -1.18%E -0.175%K -0.206%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 18:24
Casumo🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -8.33%E -6.88%K -39.67%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV +10.40%E +0.904%K +0.990%G +0.103%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -1.18%E -0.175%K -0.206%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 18:24
betPARX🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -8.33%E -6.88%K -39.67%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV +10.40%E +0.904%K +0.990%G +0.103%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -1.18%E -0.175%K -0.206%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 18:24
BetRivers🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.26%EV -8.33%E -6.88%K -39.67%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.13%EV +10.40%E +0.904%K +0.990%G +0.103%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.61%EV -6.31%E -0.985%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 17:49
Unibet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.58%EV -9.09%E -7.57%K -45.44%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +10.40%E +0.904%K +0.990%G +0.103%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -4.84%E -0.745%K -0.880%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 18:24
TABtouch🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.58%EV -9.09%E -7.57%K -45.44%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +10.40%E +0.904%K +0.990%G +0.103%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -4.84%E -0.745%K -0.880%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 18:24
Grosvenor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.58%EV -9.09%E -7.57%K -45.44%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +10.40%E +0.904%K +0.990%G +0.103%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -4.84%E -0.745%K -0.880%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 18:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.87%EV -10.60%E -8.99%K -58.90%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.99%EV +10.40%E +0.904%K +0.990%G +0.103%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.14%EV -4.84%E -0.745%K -0.880%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-22 18:24
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.57%EV -5.30%E -4.24%K -21.20%G +0.000%11.20I 8.93%NM 8.66%EV +7.52%E +0.671%K +0.737%G +0.055%7.04I 14.20%NM 13.77%EV +3.06%E +0.435%K +0.507%G +0.016%3.1%2026-04-22 18:24
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -7.57%E -6.21%K -34.42%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +5.60%E +0.509%K +0.560%G +0.031%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -4.84%E -0.745%K -0.880%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 18:22
PMU (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.57%EV -11.36%E -9.71%K -66.82%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV +5.60%E +0.509%K +0.560%G +0.031%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.18%EV -6.31%E -0.985%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-22 18:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 77.46%EV -12.12%E -10.45%K -75.74%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV +5.60%E +0.509%K +0.560%G +0.031%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.38%EV -8.50%E -1.36%K -1.62%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-22 18:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 77.46%EV -12.12%E -10.45%K -75.74%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV +5.60%E +0.509%K +0.560%G +0.031%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.38%EV -8.50%E -1.36%K -1.62%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-22 18:24
Pinnacle🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.27%EV -6.06%E -4.88%K -25.24%G +0.000%10.33I 9.68%NM 9.28%EV -0.835%E -0.081%K -0.090%G +0.000%7.12I 14.04%NM 13.46%EV +4.23%E +0.595%K +0.692%G +0.029%4.4%2026-04-22 18:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.53%EV -7.57%E -6.21%K -34.42%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 9.11%EV -1.60%E -0.156%K -0.173%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -4.84%E -0.745%K -0.880%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 18:09
Fanatics🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.86%EV -6.06%E -4.88%K -25.24%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.53%EV -4.00%E -0.400%K -0.445%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV +2.48%E +0.354%K +0.413%G +0.010%4.9%2026-04-22 18:24
theScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.06%EV -6.06%E -4.88%K -25.24%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -4.00%E -0.400%K -0.445%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -4.84%E -0.745%K -0.880%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 18:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.30%E -4.24%K -21.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -4.00%E -0.400%K -0.445%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -12.16%E -2.03%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 18:24
Coolbet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -6.81%E -5.54%K -29.63%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -4.00%E -0.400%K -0.445%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -8.50%E -1.36%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-22 18:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -6.81%E -5.54%K -29.63%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -4.00%E -0.400%K -0.445%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -8.50%E -1.36%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-22 18:24
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.95%EV -7.57%E -6.21%K -34.42%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -4.00%E -0.400%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -15.82%E -2.75%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-22 18:14
Suprabets🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.08%EV -6.81%E -5.54%K -29.63%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.75%EV -7.84%E -0.817%K -0.912%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.18%EV -3.38%E -0.512%K -0.603%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 18:08
Unibet (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.30%E -4.24%K -21.20%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -8.80%E -0.927%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -4.84%E -0.745%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-22 18:09
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -6.06%E -4.88%K -25.24%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -8.80%E -0.927%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.84%E -0.745%K -0.880%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 18:19
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.25%EV -6.06%E -4.88%K -25.24%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -8.80%E -0.927%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -8.50%E -1.36%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-22 18:08
BetUS🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.25%EV -6.06%E -4.88%K -25.24%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -8.80%E -0.927%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -8.50%E -1.36%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-22 18:24
Everygame🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -7.57%E -6.21%K -34.42%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -8.80%E -0.927%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -4.84%E -0.745%K -0.880%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 18:10
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -7.57%E -6.21%K -34.42%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -8.80%E -0.927%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -12.16%E -2.03%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 18:24
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -7.57%E -6.21%K -34.42%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -8.80%E -0.927%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -12.16%E -2.03%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 18:24
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -7.57%E -6.21%K -34.42%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -8.80%E -0.927%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -12.16%E -2.03%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 18:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -7.57%E -6.21%K -34.42%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -8.80%E -0.927%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -12.16%E -2.03%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 18:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -7.57%E -6.21%K -34.42%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -8.80%E -0.927%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -12.16%E -2.03%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 18:24
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.86%EV -11.36%E -9.71%K -66.82%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.34%EV -8.80%E -0.927%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -12.16%E -2.03%K -2.43%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-22 18:24
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.04%EV -3.78%E -2.98%K -14.01%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.30%EV -11.20%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.66%EV -4.84%E -0.745%K -0.880%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 18:09
NetBet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.86%EV -11.36%E -9.71%K -66.82%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.59%EV -11.20%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.55%EV -10.70%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-22 18:19
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.67%EV -3.03%E -2.36%K -10.81%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.62%EV -13.60%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.71%EV -4.84%E -0.745%K -0.880%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-22 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.12%EV -5.30%E -4.24%K -21.20%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -13.60%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -4.84%E -0.745%K -0.880%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-22 18:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.05%EV -7.57%E -6.21%K -34.42%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -13.60%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.64%EV -0.450%E -0.066%K -0.078%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-22 18:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.05%EV -7.57%E -6.21%K -34.42%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -13.60%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.64%EV -0.450%E -0.066%K -0.078%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-22 18:19
BetAnything🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.05%EV -7.57%E -6.21%K -34.42%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -13.60%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.64%EV -0.450%E -0.066%K -0.078%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-22 18:14
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -7.57%E -6.21%K -34.42%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -13.60%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -12.16%E -2.03%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 18:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.03%EV -8.33%E -6.88%K -39.67%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.09%EV -13.60%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.88%EV -10.70%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-22 18:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.03%EV -8.33%E -6.88%K -39.67%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.09%EV -13.60%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.88%EV -10.70%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-22 18:13
SportsBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 74.64%EV -12.12%E -10.45%K -75.74%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.62%EV -13.60%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.74%EV -19.48%E -3.54%K -4.33%G +0.000%15.5%2026-04-22 15:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.73%EV -5.30%E -4.24%K -21.20%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.68%EV -16.00%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.60%EV -6.31%E -0.985%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 18:09
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.08%EV -9.09%E -7.57%K -45.44%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.46%EV -18.40%E -2.17%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.46%EV -15.82%E -2.75%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-22 15:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 72.91%EV -11.36%E -9.71%K -66.82%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.04%EV -18.40%E -2.17%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.06%EV -26.80%E -5.36%K -6.70%G +0.000%17.2%2026-04-22 18:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.20%EV -7.57%E -6.21%K -34.42%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.32%EV -23.20%E -2.90%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.48%EV -8.50%E -1.36%K -1.62%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-22 18:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 73.63%EV -9.09%E -7.57%K -45.44%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.40%EV -25.60%E -3.30%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.97%EV -13.63%E -2.31%K -2.78%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-22 18:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.67%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.93%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.40%0.9%2026-04-22 18:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.67%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.93%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.40%0.9%2026-04-22 18:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.67%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.93%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.40%0.9%2026-04-22 18:24
Matchbook1.26I 79.37%NM 78.67%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.93%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.40%0.9%2026-04-22 18:19
Smarkets1.25I 80.00%NM 77.96%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.12%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.92%2.6%2026-04-22 18:24
Kalshi1.25I 80.00%NM 76.93%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.66%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.42%4.0%2026-04-22 18:14