Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charleroi v Westerlo

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 14:04 UTC

Final: Charleroi 0–1 Westerlo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charleroi (Local)

Prediction 53.64%1.86fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -3.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.59%53.60%53.66%55.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.731.741.8161.73%57.75%57.47%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Westerlo (Visit)

Prediction 23.09%4.33fair odd
EV +1.84%
Edge +0.417%
Kelly +0.539%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 4.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.00%23.15%23.05%24.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.004.004.4127.40%24.98%25.00%22.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.27%4.30fair odd
EV -0.657%
Edge -0.154%
Kelly -0.201%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.92%23.25%23.29%26.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.903.904.2731.25%25.65%25.64%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Charleroi (Local): 53.64%; Westerlo (Visit): 23.09%; Draw: 23.27%. For Westerlo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.33. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.41, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.84%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.21%EV -3.98%E -2.22%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 22.00%EV +1.84%E +0.417%K +0.539%G +0.010%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.78%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-16 13:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.69%EV -2.91%E -1.61%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.60%EV -0.701%E -0.163%K -0.212%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.70%EV -4.61%E -1.12%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-16 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.69%EV -2.91%E -1.61%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.60%EV -0.701%E -0.163%K -0.212%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.70%EV -4.61%E -1.12%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-16 14:00
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.93%EV -5.05%E -2.86%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%EV -0.701%E -0.163%K -0.212%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.87%EV -6.94%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-16 14:00
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -5.59%E -3.18%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.68%EV -1.86%E -0.437%K -0.571%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.57%EV -0.657%E -0.154%K -0.201%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-16 13:59
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.91%EV -3.44%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -3.01%E -0.717%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.26%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-16 14:00
Suprabets🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -3.01%E -0.717%K -0.941%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -2.29%E -0.544%K -0.714%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -3.01%E -0.717%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -9.26%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -3.01%E -0.717%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -9.26%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 13:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -7.20%E -4.16%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -3.01%E -0.717%K -0.941%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -6.94%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 14:00
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -3.01%E -0.717%K -0.941%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -4.61%E -1.12%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 13:59
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -5.32%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.61%E -1.12%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 14:00
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -5.32%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.61%E -1.12%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 14:00
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.34%EV -5.59%E -3.18%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -5.32%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -8.10%E -2.05%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 13:57
BetUS🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.34%EV -5.59%E -3.18%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -5.32%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -8.10%E -2.05%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 13:58
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -5.05%E -2.86%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -5.32%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -9.26%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 14:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.32%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -9.26%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 13:59
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.01%EV -5.59%E -3.18%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.32%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -10.43%E -2.71%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.01%EV -5.59%E -3.18%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.32%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -10.43%E -2.71%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.01%EV -5.59%E -3.18%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.32%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -10.43%E -2.71%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 14:00
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.01%EV -5.59%E -3.18%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.32%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -10.43%E -2.71%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -8.27%E -4.84%K -11.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -5.32%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -4.61%E -1.12%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 13:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.12%EV -9.88%E -5.88%K -14.53%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.45%EV -6.47%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.43%EV -9.73%E -2.51%K -3.38%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 13:54
Everygame🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -7.20%E -4.16%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -7.63%E -1.91%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -2.29%E -0.544%K -0.714%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 13:59
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.78%EV -6.66%E -3.83%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -7.63%E -1.91%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -4.61%E -1.12%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 14:00
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.63%E -1.91%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.94%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 13:58
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.63%E -1.91%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -9.26%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 13:59
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -7.20%E -4.16%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.63%E -1.91%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -9.26%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 14:00
LeoVegas🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.83%EV -6.66%E -3.83%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -7.63%E -1.91%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -11.59%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 14:00
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -7.20%E -4.16%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -7.63%E -1.91%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -12.75%E -3.40%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 13:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.15%EV -11.49%E -6.96%K -17.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -7.63%E -1.91%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -11.59%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-16 13:59
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.33%EV -5.05%E -2.86%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -9.94%E -2.55%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -2.29%E -0.544%K -0.714%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 14:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -4.52%E -2.54%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -9.94%E -2.55%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -9.26%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 13:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -4.52%E -2.54%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -9.94%E -2.55%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -9.26%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 14:00
BetAnything🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -4.52%E -2.54%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -9.94%E -2.55%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -9.26%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 13:59
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -9.94%E -2.55%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -11.59%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-16 13:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -9.94%E -2.55%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -11.59%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-16 13:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -9.94%E -2.55%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -11.59%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-16 13:59
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.35%EV -6.66%E -3.83%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -9.94%E -2.55%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -12.75%E -3.40%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 13:51
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.32%EV -7.20%E -4.16%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -9.94%E -2.55%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -13.92%E -3.76%K -5.15%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-16 14:00
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.32%EV -7.20%E -4.16%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -9.94%E -2.55%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -13.92%E -3.76%K -5.15%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-16 14:00
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.32%EV -7.20%E -4.16%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -9.94%E -2.55%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -13.92%E -3.76%K -5.15%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-16 14:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.84%EV -11.49%E -6.96%K -17.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -9.94%E -2.55%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.38%EV -11.59%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-16 14:00
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.58%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -11.09%E -2.88%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -10.43%E -2.71%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-16 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.46%EV -8.27%E -4.84%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.30%EV -11.09%E -2.88%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -13.92%E -3.76%K -5.15%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-16 14:00
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.85%EV -10.42%E -6.24%K -15.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -12.25%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -6.94%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 14:00
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.22%EV -10.42%E -6.24%K -15.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.25%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -11.59%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-16 14:00
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.06%EV -10.42%E -6.24%K -15.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -12.25%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.63%EV -12.75%E -3.40%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-16 14:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.57%EV -9.88%E -5.88%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -12.25%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.19%EV -15.08%E -4.13%K -5.69%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-16 14:00
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.36%EV -11.49%E -6.96%K -17.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.17%EV -12.25%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.48%EV -12.75%E -3.40%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-16 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.54%EV -10.42%E -6.24%K -15.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -12.25%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -16.24%E -4.51%K -6.25%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-16 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.54%EV -10.42%E -6.24%K -15.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -12.25%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -16.24%E -4.51%K -6.25%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-16 14:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.53%EV -7.74%E -4.50%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -13.40%E -3.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -2.29%E -0.544%K -0.714%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 14:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 51.59%EV -13.10%E -8.09%K -21.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.29%EV -13.40%E -3.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.12%EV -25.55%E -7.98%K -11.61%G +0.000%19.6%2026-05-16 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.18%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -15.71%E -4.30%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -4.61%E -1.12%K -1.49%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.77I 56.50%NM 55.92%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%1.0%2026-05-16 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.13%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.93%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%1.3%2026-05-16 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.77I 56.50%NM 55.67%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.42%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.91%1.5%2026-05-16 14:00
Matchbook1.77I 56.50%NM 55.36%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.30%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.33%2.0%2026-05-16 14:00
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 55.96%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.52%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.51%2.1%2026-05-16 14:00
Smarkets1.76I 56.82%NM 54.97%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.04%3.4%2026-05-16 14:00