Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charleroi v Leuven

2026-08-09 14:00 UTC — Belgium First Div

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charleroi (Local)

Prediction 52.57%1.90fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -4.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.57%52.48%52.60%54.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.751.751.8360.61%57.03%57.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leuven (Visit)

Prediction 21.24%4.71fair odd
EV +1.97%
Edge +0.410%
Kelly +0.518%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.01%21.30%21.26%23.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.374.334.8026.32%22.89%23.09%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.19%3.82fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -0.840%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.28%26.21%26.14%27.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.503.503.7030.77%28.60%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Charleroi (Local): 52.57%; Leuven (Visit): 21.24%; Draw: 26.19%. For Leuven (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.71. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.80, producing a positive expected value of +1.97%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Grosvenor1.79I 55.87%NM 53.67%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.01%EV +1.97%E +0.410%K +0.518%G +0.010%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.32%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-04 11:29
ATG (SE)1.79I 55.87%NM 53.67%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.01%EV +1.97%E +0.410%K +0.518%G +0.010%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.32%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-04 11:30
Svenska Spel1.79I 55.87%NM 53.67%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.01%EV +1.97%E +0.410%K +0.518%G +0.010%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.32%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-04 11:29
Betr (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 53.15%EV -6.43%E -3.61%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -2.28%E -0.496%K -0.634%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-04 14:50
NordicBet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.76%EV -6.43%E -3.61%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -2.28%E -0.496%K -0.634%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 14:35
Betsson1.78I 56.18%NM 52.76%EV -6.43%E -3.61%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -2.28%E -0.496%K -0.634%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 14:39
Tipico (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -9.58%E -5.57%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -2.28%E -0.496%K -0.634%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 23:25
Unibet (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.38%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -2.28%E -0.496%K -0.634%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 05:09
Casumo1.75I 57.14%NM 53.38%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -2.28%E -0.496%K -0.634%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 05:05
Unibet (NL)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.38%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -2.28%E -0.496%K -0.634%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 05:09
betPARX1.75I 57.14%NM 53.38%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -2.28%E -0.496%K -0.634%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 05:05
1xBet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.06%EV -5.37%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.99%EV -3.34%E -0.735%K -0.942%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.95%EV -3.63%E -0.987%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 04:39
Pinnacle1.78I 56.18%NM 53.29%EV -6.43%E -3.61%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 20.94%EV -3.77%E -0.832%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.77%EV -3.63%E -0.987%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 23:25
Fanatics1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -5.37%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -4.41%E -0.979%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-03 05:25
Coolbet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -4.41%E -0.979%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 14:49
PointsBet (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -4.41%E -0.979%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 14:50
theScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -8.53%E -4.90%K -11.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -4.41%E -0.979%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-04 14:49
betfred_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -9.05%E -5.23%K -12.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -4.41%E -0.979%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-04 14:49
Marathon Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 53.07%EV -7.48%E -4.25%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -5.47%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 04:33
Paddy Power1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -6.53%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-04 14:46
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -6.53%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-04 14:50
BetRivers1.72I 58.14%NM 52.72%EV -9.58%E -5.57%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -6.53%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-04 11:30
TABtouch1.71I 58.48%NM 52.87%EV -10.11%E -5.91%K -14.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.55%EV -6.53%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-04 11:29
Unibet1.71I 58.48%NM 52.87%EV -10.11%E -5.91%K -14.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.55%EV -6.53%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-04 11:30
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 51.74%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.82%EV -7.59%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-04 14:39
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 52.68%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.19%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.59%EV -7.59%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-04 11:30
Coral1.83I 54.64%NM 51.79%EV -3.80%E -2.08%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.89%EV -8.02%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 16:35
Ladbrokes (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.79%EV -3.80%E -2.08%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.89%EV -8.02%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 16:34
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 51.79%EV -3.80%E -2.08%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.89%EV -8.02%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 16:40
betano_uk1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -8.02%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-04 11:59
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -8.02%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-04 11:59
Suprabets1.74I 57.47%NM 52.78%EV -8.53%E -4.90%K -11.53%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.21%EV -8.02%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.01%EV -7.56%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 23:27
DraftKings1.77I 56.50%NM 52.35%EV -6.95%E -3.93%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.55%EV -8.65%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.10%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 23:24
SportsBet1.68I 59.52%NM 53.06%EV -11.68%E -6.95%K -17.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.73%EV -8.65%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-04 14:49
PMU (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 52.85%EV -11.68%E -6.95%K -17.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.65%EV -8.65%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-04 11:30
Virgin Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 52.85%EV -11.68%E -6.95%K -17.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.65%EV -8.65%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-04 11:29
LiveScore Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 52.85%EV -11.68%E -6.95%K -17.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.65%EV -8.65%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-04 11:29
Unibet (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.19%EV -3.80%E -2.08%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -9.72%E -2.29%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-04 14:05
Ladbrokes (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.33%EV -4.32%E -2.38%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -9.72%E -2.29%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-04 16:34
BetOnline.ag1.78I 56.18%NM 51.94%EV -6.43%E -3.61%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -10.78%E -2.57%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-03 05:30
LowVig.ag1.78I 56.18%NM 51.94%EV -6.43%E -3.61%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -10.78%E -2.57%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-03 05:29
Bovada1.80I 55.56%NM 51.27%EV -5.37%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.97%EV -10.78%E -2.57%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -9.65%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-04 16:36
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -5.37%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.78%E -2.57%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-03 00:15
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -5.37%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.78%E -2.57%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-03 00:15
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -5.37%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.78%E -2.57%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-03 00:15
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -5.37%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.78%E -2.57%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-03 00:15
BoyleSports1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -10.78%E -2.57%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-03 05:20
Unibet (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 52.28%EV -10.11%E -5.91%K -14.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.81%EV -12.90%E -3.15%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -9.65%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-03 14:05
Betclic (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 52.43%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.74%EV -12.90%E -3.15%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.83%EV -9.65%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-03 00:20
NetBet (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 52.97%EV -13.26%E -8.04%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.32%EV -12.90%E -3.15%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.71%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-04 18:29
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 51.78%EV -12.21%E -7.31%K -18.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.62%EV -15.03%E -3.76%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.61%EV -14.89%E -4.58%K -6.62%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-04 14:50
Winamax (DE)1.76I 56.82%NM 50.98%EV -7.48%E -4.25%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.01%EV -17.15%E -4.40%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.01%EV -9.65%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-03 20:14
Winamax (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 50.57%EV -8.53%E -4.90%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.16%EV -19.28%E -5.07%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.27%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-03 20:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 52.94%5.00I 20.00%NM 20.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.04%-0.1%2026-08-04 22:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.42%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.93%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%11.4%2026-08-04 22:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.42%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.93%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%11.4%2026-08-04 22:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.42%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.93%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%11.4%2026-08-04 22:45
Smarkets1.75I 57.14%NM 50.17%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.45%13.9%2026-08-04 22:50