The School of Odds

Charleroi v Leuven

2026-08-08 14:00 UTC — Belgium First Div

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Charleroi (Local)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -49.02%
Kelly -96.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.78%0.00%0.00%49.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.781.881.852.0456%53%54%49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Leuven (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -23.92%
Kelly -31.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.72%0.00%0.00%23.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.753.893.804.1827%26%26%24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -29.41%
Kelly -41.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.31%0.00%0.00%30.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.203.4033%32%31%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.04I 49.02%NM 46.78%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.83%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.39%4.8%2026-07-14 18:18
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%5.7%2026-07-14 18:18
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%9.6%2026-07-14 19:04
Paddy Power1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%10.7%2026-07-14 18:18
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%10.7%2026-07-14 18:19
SportsBet1.81I 55.25%NM 49.03%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.66%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.31%12.7%2026-07-14 18:15
Unibet (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 48.50%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.72%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.78%15.8%2026-07-14 18:54
Betclic (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 48.44%3.78I 26.46%NM 22.81%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.74%16.0%2026-07-14 18:28
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.81I 55.25%NM 47.60%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.29%2.96I 33.78%NM 29.11%16.1%2026-07-14 18:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-14 18:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-14 18:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-14 18:20