Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Charleroi v Leuven

Inicio: 2026-08-09 14:00 UTC

Final: Charleroi 3–1 Leuven

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Charleroi (Local)

Predicción 52.93%1.89momio equitativo
EV -3.14%
Ventaja -1.72%
Kelly -3.78%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.78%52.98%52.86%55.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.651.751.751.8360.61%57.11%56.98%54.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Leuven (Visitante)

Predicción 21.65%4.62momio equitativo
EV -0.404%
Ventaja -0.088%
Kelly -0.112%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.34%21.63%21.75%22.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.954.244.204.6025.32%23.56%23.81%21.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.42%3.93momio equitativo
EV -2.14%
Ventaja -0.555%
Kelly -0.750%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.62%25.39%25.39%26.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.643.653.8529.41%27.48%27.40%25.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Charleroi (Local): 52.93%; Leuven (Visitante): 21.65%; Empate: 25.42%. Para Leuven (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.62. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 4.60, con un valor esperado de -0.404%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.93%EV -3.14%E -1.72%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.72%EV -3.43%E -0.770%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.36%EV -2.90%E -0.759%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-09 13:50
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.15%EV -4.20%E -2.32%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.86%EV -4.73%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.99%EV -2.14%E -0.555%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-09 13:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.15%EV -4.20%E -2.32%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.86%EV -4.73%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.99%EV -2.14%E -0.555%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-09 13:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.15%EV -4.20%E -2.32%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.86%EV -4.73%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.99%EV -2.14%E -0.555%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-09 13:54
Pinnacle🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.34%EV -4.73%E -2.63%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 21.06%EV -1.27%E -0.278%K -0.357%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-09 13:55
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -4.73%E -2.63%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.93%EV -6.25%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 13:35
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -4.73%E -2.63%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.93%EV -6.25%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 13:34
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.73%E -2.63%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.57%E -0.571%K -0.734%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-09 13:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -4.73%E -2.63%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 13:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -4.73%E -2.63%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 13:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.53%EV -5.26%E -2.94%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 13:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.53%EV -5.26%E -2.94%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 13:39
BetAnything🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.53%EV -5.26%E -2.94%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 13:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.95%EV -5.79%E -3.25%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -6.90%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 13:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.90%EV -5.79%E -3.25%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV -5.82%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 13:35
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.72%EV -5.79%E -3.25%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.57%EV -5.82%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 13:40
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.72%EV -5.79%E -3.25%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.57%EV -5.82%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 13:35
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -5.79%E -3.25%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -6.90%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 13:35
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.24%EV -6.31%E -3.57%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -2.57%E -0.571%K -0.734%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 13:30
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.64%EV -6.31%E -3.57%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 13:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -6.31%E -3.57%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -7.98%E -1.88%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-09 13:30
Suprabets🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.17%EV -6.84%E -3.89%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -4.73%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.57%EV -6.97%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 13:55
BetUS🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.05%EV -6.84%E -3.89%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -6.90%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 13:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.92%EV -6.84%E -3.89%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -7.98%E -1.88%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 13:55
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.92%EV -6.84%E -3.89%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -7.98%E -1.88%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 13:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.92%EV -6.84%E -3.89%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -7.98%E -1.88%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 13:55
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.92%EV -6.84%E -3.89%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -7.98%E -1.88%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 13:55
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -7.37%E -4.21%K -9.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -4.73%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 13:54
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -7.37%E -4.21%K -9.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -4.73%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 13:55
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.37%E -4.21%K -9.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 11:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.37%E -4.21%K -9.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 11:35
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.37%E -4.21%K -9.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 11:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.37%E -4.21%K -9.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 11:35
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -7.37%E -4.21%K -9.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -13.58%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-09 13:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.62%EV -7.90%E -4.54%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -6.90%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.68%EV -3.92%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 13:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.31%EV -7.90%E -4.54%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 13:34
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -8.43%E -4.87%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-09 13:35
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.65%EV -8.43%E -4.87%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.69%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 13:34
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.38%EV -8.43%E -4.87%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -11.23%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-09 13:55
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.38%EV -8.43%E -4.87%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -11.23%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-09 13:55
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -8.43%E -4.87%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-09 13:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.38%EV -9.49%E -5.55%K -13.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-09 13:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -10.02%E -5.89%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -0.404%E -0.088%K -0.112%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 13:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.39%EV -10.02%E -5.89%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.00%EV -7.73%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 13:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.09%EV -10.02%E -5.89%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.49%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-09 13:34
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.90%EV -10.02%E -5.89%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 13:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.56%EV -10.02%E -5.89%K -14.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.62%EV -14.48%E -3.67%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-09 13:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -10.02%E -5.89%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-09 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -10.02%E -5.89%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-09 13:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -10.02%E -5.89%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-09 13:55
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -11.61%E -6.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-09 13:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -11.61%E -6.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-09 13:45
SportsBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.67%EV -11.61%E -6.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.45%EV -11.23%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.87%EV -13.58%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-09 13:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.83%EV -12.67%E -7.68%K -19.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.02%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-09 13:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 54.38%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%0.5%2026-08-09 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.83I 54.64%NM 54.38%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%0.5%2026-08-09 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 54.38%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%0.5%2026-08-09 13:55
Matchbook1.84I 54.35%NM 54.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.84%0.6%2026-08-09 13:55
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-08-09 12:00
Smarkets1.83I 54.64%NM 53.98%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.02%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.01%1.2%2026-08-09 13:55