Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.76
assuming max odds 5.30
assuming max odds 4.10
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Charleroi (Local): 56.68%; KV Mechelen (Visit): 19.42%; Draw: 23.89%. For KV Mechelen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.15. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.95%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.06%EV -4.77%E -2.84%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV +2.95%E +0.556%K +0.685%G +0.020% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -13.99%E -3.88%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.06%EV -4.77%E -2.84%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV +2.95%E +0.556%K +0.685%G +0.020% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -13.99%E -3.88%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.21%E -2.49%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.11%EV -1.91%E -0.378%K -0.472%G +0.000% | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.77%EV -2.99%E -0.738%K -0.979%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-22 15:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -2.88%E -0.576%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -4.43%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-22 15:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -8.17%E -5.04%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -2.88%E -0.576%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -2.04%E -0.497%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -9.31%E -5.82%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -2.88%E -0.576%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -2.04%E -0.497%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.64%EV -8.74%E -5.43%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -2.88%E -0.576%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.64%EV -8.74%E -5.43%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -2.88%E -0.576%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-22 15:18 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.51%EV -4.21%E -2.49%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 4.96I 20.16%NM 19.25%EV -3.66%E -0.738%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.24%EV -5.86%E -1.49%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.23%EV -7.61%E -4.67%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.85%EV -3.85%E -0.778%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.36%EV -9.31%E -5.82%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.59%EV -5.80%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -13.99%E -3.88%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -3.64%E -2.14%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.01%EV -4.21%E -2.49%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.30%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.72%EV -7.61%E -4.67%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.26%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -8.01%E -2.08%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-22 15:18 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.71%EV -0.237%E -0.135%K -0.312%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.27%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01%EV -8.01%E -2.08%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-22 11:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.71%EV -0.237%E -0.135%K -0.312%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.27%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01%EV -8.01%E -2.08%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-22 11:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.71%EV -0.237%E -0.135%K -0.312%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.27%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01%EV -8.01%E -2.08%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-22 11:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.38%EV -4.77%E -2.84%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.94%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -4.43%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.19%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -4.43%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.21%E -2.42%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.48%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -10.40%E -2.77%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -10.40%E -2.77%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -10.40%E -2.77%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -10.40%E -2.77%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.18%EV -7.04%E -4.29%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.95%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -2.04%E -0.497%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -5.91%E -3.56%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 23.79%EV -6.10%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-22 11:21 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -7.04%E -4.29%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.43%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -7.04%E -4.29%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.43%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -7.04%E -4.29%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.43%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.44%EV -8.74%E -5.43%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.23%EV -10.40%E -2.77%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.55%EV -12.14%E -7.83%K -22.07%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.98%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -9.21%E -2.42%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -2.50%E -1.46%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -10.65%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -11.60%E -3.13%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -2.50%E -1.46%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -10.65%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -11.60%E -3.13%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -2.50%E -1.46%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -10.65%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -11.60%E -3.13%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -2.50%E -1.46%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -10.65%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -11.60%E -3.13%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.35%EV -9.31%E -5.82%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.60%EV -10.65%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -10.40%E -2.77%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -12.59%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -8.17%E -5.04%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -12.59%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -8.01%E -2.08%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.98%EV -8.17%E -5.04%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -12.59%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -9.21%E -2.42%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-22 11:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.93%EV -9.31%E -5.82%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -12.59%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.19%EV -11.60%E -3.13%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -9.31%E -5.82%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.75%EV -12.59%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -13.99%E -3.88%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.02%EV -11.01%E -7.01%K -19.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.55%EV -12.59%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.43%EV -13.99%E -3.88%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.61%EV -3.64%E -2.14%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -14.54%E -3.30%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -15.18%E -4.28%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -9.31%E -5.82%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -14.54%E -3.30%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -10.40%E -2.77%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.97%EV -4.77%E -2.84%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.84%EV -15.51%E -3.56%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -13.99%E -3.88%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-21 15:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.78%EV -4.77%E -2.84%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.77%EV -15.51%E -3.56%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -15.18%E -4.28%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.78%EV -4.77%E -2.84%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.77%EV -15.51%E -3.56%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -15.18%E -4.28%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.64%E -2.14%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -15.90%E -3.67%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -10.40%E -2.77%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-22 14:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.60%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.82%EV -16.48%E -3.83%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -16.37%E -4.68%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.58%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.80%EV -17.45%E -4.11%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.62%EV -17.57%E -5.09%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.58%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.80%EV -17.45%E -4.11%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.62%EV -17.57%E -5.09%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.49% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.80% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.71% | 1.1% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.82% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.20% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97% | 1.7% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.82% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.20% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97% | 1.7% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.82% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.20% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97% | 1.7% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.97% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.14% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.89% | 2.1% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.08% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.66% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26% | 3.1% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |