Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Charleroi v KV Mechelen

Inicio: 2026-08-22 16:15 UTC

Final: Charleroi 2–0 KV Mechelen

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Charleroi (Local)

Predicción 56.68%1.76momio equitativo
EV -0.237%
Ventaja -0.135%
Kelly -0.312%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.76

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.58%56.60%56.73%58.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.551.661.651.7664.52%60.34%60.61%56.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

KV Mechelen (Visitante)

Predicción 19.42%5.15momio equitativo
EV +2.95%
Ventaja +0.556%
Kelly +0.685%
Crecimiento +0.020%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.77%19.41%19.44%21.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.254.694.725.3023.53%21.30%21.16%18.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.89%4.19momio equitativo
EV -2.04%
Ventaja -0.497%
Kelly -0.658%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.82%23.99%23.84%26.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.453.803.804.1028.99%26.32%26.32%24.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Charleroi (Local): 56.68%; KV Mechelen (Visitante): 19.42%; Empate: 23.89%. Para KV Mechelen (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.15. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.30, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.95%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.06%EV -4.77%E -2.84%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV +2.95%E +0.556%K +0.685%G +0.020%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -13.99%E -3.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 15:19
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.06%EV -4.77%E -2.84%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV +2.95%E +0.556%K +0.685%G +0.020%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -13.99%E -3.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 15:19
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.21%E -2.49%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 19.11%EV -1.91%E -0.378%K -0.472%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.77%EV -2.99%E -0.738%K -0.979%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-22 15:10
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -2.88%E -0.576%K -0.720%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -4.43%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-22 15:00
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -8.17%E -5.04%K -13.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -2.88%E -0.576%K -0.720%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -2.04%E -0.497%K -0.658%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 15:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -9.31%E -5.82%K -15.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -2.88%E -0.576%K -0.720%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -2.04%E -0.497%K -0.658%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 15:19
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.64%EV -8.74%E -5.43%K -14.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -2.88%E -0.576%K -0.720%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 15:20
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.64%EV -8.74%E -5.43%K -14.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -2.88%E -0.576%K -0.720%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 15:18
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.51%EV -4.21%E -2.49%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.96I 20.16%NM 19.25%EV -3.66%E -0.738%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.24%EV -5.86%E -1.49%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 15:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.23%EV -7.61%E -4.67%K -12.07%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.85%EV -3.85%E -0.778%K -0.975%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 15:20
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.36%EV -9.31%E -5.82%K -15.51%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.59%EV -5.80%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -13.99%E -3.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-22 15:19
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -3.64%E -2.14%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 11:14
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.01%EV -4.21%E -2.49%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 11:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.30%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 11:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.72%EV -7.61%E -4.67%K -12.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.26%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -8.01%E -2.08%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 15:18
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.71%EV -0.237%E -0.135%K -0.312%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.27%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01%EV -8.01%E -2.08%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-22 11:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.71%EV -0.237%E -0.135%K -0.312%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.27%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01%EV -8.01%E -2.08%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-22 11:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.71%EV -0.237%E -0.135%K -0.312%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.27%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01%EV -8.01%E -2.08%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-22 11:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.38%EV -4.77%E -2.84%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.94%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -4.43%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 15:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.19%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 11:14
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -4.43%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 15:19
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.21%E -2.42%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 11:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.48%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-22 15:19
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -10.40%E -2.77%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-22 15:20
William Hill🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -10.40%E -2.77%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-22 15:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -10.40%E -2.77%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-22 15:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -10.40%E -2.77%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-22 15:19
BetAnything🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.18%EV -7.04%E -4.29%K -11.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.95%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -2.04%E -0.497%K -0.658%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 15:19
Suprabets🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -5.91%E -3.56%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.79%EV -6.10%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 11:21
LowVig.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -7.04%E -4.29%K -11.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.43%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-22 15:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -7.04%E -4.29%K -11.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.43%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-22 15:19
BetUS🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -7.04%E -4.29%K -11.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.43%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-22 15:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.44%EV -8.74%E -5.43%K -14.33%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.23%EV -10.40%E -2.77%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-22 11:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.55%EV -12.14%E -7.83%K -22.07%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.98%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -9.21%E -2.42%K -3.29%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 15:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -2.50%E -1.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -10.65%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -11.60%E -3.13%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 15:19
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -2.50%E -1.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -10.65%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -11.60%E -3.13%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 15:20
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -2.50%E -1.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -10.65%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -11.60%E -3.13%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 15:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -2.50%E -1.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -10.65%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -11.60%E -3.13%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 15:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.35%EV -9.31%E -5.82%K -15.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.60%EV -10.65%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -10.40%E -2.77%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-22 15:19
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -12.59%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -6.82%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -8.17%E -5.04%K -13.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -12.59%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -8.01%E -2.08%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 11:15
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.98%EV -8.17%E -5.04%K -13.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -12.59%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -9.21%E -2.42%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 11:49
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.93%EV -9.31%E -5.82%K -15.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -12.59%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.19%EV -11.60%E -3.13%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-22 15:20
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -9.31%E -5.82%K -15.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.75%EV -12.59%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -13.99%E -3.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-22 15:19
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.02%EV -11.01%E -7.01%K -19.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.55%EV -12.59%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.43%EV -13.99%E -3.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-22 15:19
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.61%EV -3.64%E -2.14%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -14.54%E -3.30%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -15.18%E -4.28%K -5.95%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-22 15:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -9.31%E -5.82%K -15.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -14.54%E -3.30%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -10.40%E -2.77%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-22 11:14
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.97%EV -4.77%E -2.84%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.84%EV -15.51%E -3.56%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -13.99%E -3.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 15:35
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.78%EV -4.77%E -2.84%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.77%EV -15.51%E -3.56%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -15.18%E -4.28%K -5.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-22 15:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.78%EV -4.77%E -2.84%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.77%EV -15.51%E -3.56%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -15.18%E -4.28%K -5.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-22 15:19
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.64%E -2.14%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -15.90%E -3.67%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -10.40%E -2.77%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.60%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.82%EV -16.48%E -3.83%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -16.37%E -4.68%K -6.55%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-22 15:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.58%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.80%EV -17.45%E -4.11%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.62%EV -17.57%E -5.09%K -7.17%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-22 15:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.58%EV -6.47%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.80%EV -17.45%E -4.11%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.62%EV -17.57%E -5.09%K -7.17%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-22 15:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.49%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.80%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.71%1.1%2026-08-22 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.82%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.20%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97%1.7%2026-08-22 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.82%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.20%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97%1.7%2026-08-22 15:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.82%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.20%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97%1.7%2026-08-22 15:20
Matchbook◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.97%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.14%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.89%2.1%2026-08-22 15:20
Smarkets◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.08%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.66%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%3.1%2026-08-22 15:20