Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anderlecht v Sint Truiden

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 18:30 UTC

Final: Anderlecht 3–1 Sint Truiden

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anderlecht (Local)

Prediction 51.24%1.95fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -4.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.61%51.33%51.28%53.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.801.821.8860.24%55.48%54.95%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sint Truiden (Visit)

Prediction 23.69%4.22fair odd
EV +1.37%
Edge +0.321%
Kelly +0.418%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.35%23.66%23.66%24.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.913.904.2828.57%25.60%25.64%23.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.07%3.99fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -0.571%
Kelly -0.767%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.66%25.01%25.06%26.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.653.703.9032.26%27.40%27.03%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Anderlecht (Local): 51.24%; Sint Truiden (Visit): 23.69%; Draw: 25.07%. For Sint Truiden (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.22. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.52%EV -5.71%E -3.10%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.58%EV +1.37%E +0.321%K +0.418%G +0.006%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.91%EV -2.73%E -0.703%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-21 18:20
BetUS🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.26%EV -5.20%E -2.81%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.69%EV +0.899%E +0.211%K +0.276%G +0.002%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.05%EV -3.23%E -0.836%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-21 18:19
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.81%EV -6.22%E -3.40%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -0.522%E -0.124%K -0.163%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -7.24%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-21 18:20
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.81%EV -6.22%E -3.40%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -0.522%E -0.124%K -0.163%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -7.24%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-21 18:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -6.22%E -3.40%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -0.522%E -0.124%K -0.163%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -9.75%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-21 18:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -6.74%E -3.70%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -0.522%E -0.124%K -0.163%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -9.75%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-21 18:20
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.12%EV -6.22%E -3.40%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.04%EV -1.94%E -0.469%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.84%EV -3.73%E -0.971%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-21 18:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.53%EV -3.66%E -1.95%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -2.89%E -0.705%K -0.933%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.84%EV -2.23%E -0.571%K -0.767%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-21 18:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.53%EV -3.66%E -1.95%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -2.89%E -0.705%K -0.933%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.84%EV -2.23%E -0.571%K -0.767%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-21 18:10
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.87%EV -6.22%E -3.40%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -2.89%E -0.705%K -0.933%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -4.73%E -1.25%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-21 18:20
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.48%EV -6.74%E -3.70%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -2.89%E -0.705%K -0.933%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -8.49%E -2.33%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-21 18:10
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.48%EV -6.74%E -3.70%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -2.89%E -0.705%K -0.933%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -8.49%E -2.33%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-21 18:09
Suprabets🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.18%EV -8.27%E -4.62%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -2.89%E -0.705%K -0.933%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.04%EV -6.49%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-21 18:18
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.07%EV -8.27%E -4.62%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -2.89%E -0.705%K -0.933%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.24%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-21 18:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.07%EV -8.27%E -4.62%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -2.89%E -0.705%K -0.933%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.24%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-21 18:20
BetAnything🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.07%EV -8.27%E -4.62%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -2.89%E -0.705%K -0.933%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.24%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-21 18:19
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -6.22%E -3.40%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -5.26%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -4.73%E -1.25%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-21 18:10
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.54%EV -6.74%E -3.70%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.26%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -5.99%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-21 18:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.87%EV -14.93%E -9.00%K -22.63%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.47%EV -5.73%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.66%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-21 18:18
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.25%EV -6.74%E -3.70%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.67%EV -6.68%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.07%EV -6.74%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-21 18:20
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -4.17%E -2.23%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -7.63%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -7.24%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-21 18:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.96%EV -5.71%E -3.10%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -7.63%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.99%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-21 18:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -6.22%E -3.40%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -7.63%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.24%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-21 18:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -6.22%E -3.40%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -7.63%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.24%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-21 18:10
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -6.22%E -3.40%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -7.63%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.24%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-21 18:10
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -6.22%E -3.40%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -7.63%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.24%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-21 18:10
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -6.22%E -3.40%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -7.63%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-21 18:10
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -6.22%E -3.40%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -7.63%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-21 18:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -6.22%E -3.40%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -7.63%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-21 18:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -6.22%E -3.40%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -7.63%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-21 18:10
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.66%EV -5.20%E -2.81%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.81%E -2.29%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -5.99%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-21 18:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -5.20%E -2.81%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -10.00%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.24%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-21 18:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -5.20%E -2.81%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -10.00%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.24%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-21 18:10
LeoVegas🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.70%EV -7.25%E -4.00%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -10.00%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -8.49%E -2.33%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-21 18:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.55%EV -10.32%E -5.90%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -10.00%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV -8.49%E -2.33%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-21 18:19
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -10.32%E -5.90%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -10.00%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-21 18:10
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -10.32%E -5.90%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -10.00%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-21 18:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.39%EV -13.91%E -8.28%K -20.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.16%EV -10.00%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.45%EV -9.75%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-21 18:20
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.35%EV -12.88%E -7.58%K -18.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.97%EV -10.00%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.68%EV -14.76%E -4.34%K -6.15%G +0.000%14.6%2026-05-21 18:10
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.90%EV -4.17%E -2.23%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -11.18%E -2.98%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -7.24%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-21 18:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.76%E -4.31%K -9.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -11.18%E -2.98%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -4.73%E -1.25%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-21 18:19
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -6.22%E -3.40%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -11.18%E -2.98%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -9.75%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-21 18:10
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -7.76%E -4.31%K -9.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -11.18%E -2.98%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -9.75%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-21 18:10
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.47%EV -8.27%E -4.62%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.09%EV -11.18%E -2.98%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -11.00%E -3.10%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-21 18:10
Grosvenor🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.47%EV -8.27%E -4.62%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.09%EV -11.18%E -2.98%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -11.00%E -3.10%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-21 18:10
TABtouch🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.47%EV -8.27%E -4.62%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.09%EV -11.18%E -2.98%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -11.00%E -3.10%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-21 18:10
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.93%EV -9.30%E -5.25%K -12.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -11.18%E -2.98%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -9.75%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-21 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.96%EV -8.78%E -4.94%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -12.36%E -3.34%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -7.24%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-21 18:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.58%EV -9.30%E -5.25%K -12.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -12.36%E -3.34%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.22%EV -11.00%E -3.10%K -4.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-21 18:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.52%EV -10.32%E -5.90%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.22%EV -13.55%E -3.71%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-21 18:10
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -10.32%E -5.90%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -14.73%E -4.09%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -5.99%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-21 18:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.31%EV -10.83%E -6.23%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.32%EV -14.73%E -4.09%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.37%EV -13.51%E -3.92%K -5.51%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-21 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.31%EV -10.83%E -6.23%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.32%EV -14.73%E -4.09%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.37%EV -13.51%E -3.92%K -5.51%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-21 18:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 49.61%EV -14.42%E -8.64%K -21.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.67%EV -17.10%E -4.89%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.72%EV -22.28%E -7.19%K -10.61%G +0.000%20.7%2026-05-21 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.89I 52.91%NM 52.67%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.12%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%0.4%2026-05-21 18:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.81%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.13%0.7%2026-05-21 18:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.81%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.13%0.7%2026-05-21 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.81%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.13%0.7%2026-05-21 18:20
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 52.51%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.32%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.18%1.8%2026-05-21 18:20
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 52.97%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-05-21 18:20