Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anderlecht v Genk

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 16:30 UTC

Final: Anderlecht 0–0 Genk

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anderlecht (Local)

Prediction 41.01%2.44fair odd
EV +1.28%
Edge +0.520%
Kelly +0.874%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.27%41.18%40.96%42.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.242.252.4747.62%44.68%44.44%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Genk (Visit)

Prediction 33.16%3.02fair odd
EV +2.80%
Edge +0.903%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.92%33.05%33.10%35.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.842.813.1038.17%35.25%35.59%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.83%3.87fair odd
EV -2.09%
Edge -0.552%
Kelly -0.750%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.71%25.78%25.94%27.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.543.603.7930.77%28.28%27.78%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Anderlecht (Local): 41.01%; Genk (Visit): 33.16%; Draw: 25.83%. For Genk (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.80%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.22%EV -6.51%E -2.85%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.05%EV +2.80%E +0.903%K +1.33%G +0.037%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-06 16:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.22%EV -6.51%E -2.85%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.05%EV +2.80%E +0.903%K +1.33%G +0.037%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-06 16:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.22%EV -6.51%E -2.85%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.05%EV +2.80%E +0.903%K +1.33%G +0.037%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-06 16:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -8.56%E -3.84%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -0.518%E -0.173%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -10.88%E -3.15%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 15:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -8.56%E -3.84%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -0.518%E -0.173%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -10.88%E -3.15%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 15:55
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -8.56%E -3.84%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -0.518%E -0.173%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -10.88%E -3.15%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 15:55
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -8.56%E -3.84%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -0.518%E -0.173%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -10.88%E -3.15%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 15:55
Pinnacle🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.39%EV -4.05%E -1.73%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.72%EV -1.84%E -0.623%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.89%EV -3.38%E -0.905%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-06 16:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -7.74%E -3.44%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -2.18%E -0.738%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -9.58%E -2.74%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 16:25
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.85%EV -10.61%E -4.87%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -2.18%E -0.738%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.23%EV -13.46%E -4.02%K -5.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 15:55
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -11.84%E -5.51%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -3.83%E -1.32%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.58%E -2.74%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 13:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -11.84%E -5.51%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -3.83%E -1.32%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.58%E -2.74%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -11.84%E -5.51%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -3.83%E -1.32%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.58%E -2.74%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 13:35
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.74%EV -11.02%E -5.08%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -3.83%E -1.32%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -13.46%E -4.02%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 16:25
TABtouch🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.74%EV -11.02%E -5.08%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -3.83%E -1.32%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -13.46%E -4.02%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 16:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.74%EV -11.02%E -5.08%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -3.83%E -1.32%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -13.46%E -4.02%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 16:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -11.84%E -5.51%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -4.50%E -1.56%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -14.75%E -4.47%K -6.41%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-06 15:55
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.49%E -1.93%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 15:44
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.49%E -1.93%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 15:45
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -7.74%E -3.44%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -5.49%E -1.93%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 16:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.73%EV -13.07%E -6.16%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.04%EV -5.49%E -1.93%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -16.04%E -4.94%K -7.13%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 15:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.73%EV -13.07%E -6.16%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.04%EV -5.49%E -1.93%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -16.04%E -4.94%K -7.13%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 15:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.63%EV -4.87%E -2.10%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.19%EV -5.82%E -2.05%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 16:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.10%EV -6.92%E -3.05%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.85%EV -5.82%E -2.05%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -7.52%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 16:25
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.74%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.23%EV -6.49%E -2.30%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 16:10
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.74%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.23%EV -6.49%E -2.30%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 16:09
Suprabets🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -7.74%E -3.44%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.84%EV -6.49%E -2.30%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.01%EV -8.03%E -2.26%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 16:23
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -3.13%E -0.833%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 16:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.23%EV -4.05%E -1.73%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 16:25
BetAnything🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.23%EV -4.05%E -1.73%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 16:25
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.79%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -5.71%E -1.56%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 16:20
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:45
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -11.84%E -5.51%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.17%E -3.58%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 16:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -11.84%E -5.51%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.17%E -3.58%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 16:20
1xBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.27%EV +1.28%E +0.520%K +0.874%G +0.011%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.14%EV -8.48%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.59%EV -2.09%E -0.552%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-06 16:20
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -4.42%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 16:24
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -4.42%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 16:25
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -7.74%E -3.44%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -3.13%E -0.833%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 16:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.22%EV -7.74%E -3.44%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -4.42%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 16:25
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.07%EV -7.74%E -3.44%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -5.71%E -1.56%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 16:05
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.74%E -3.44%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 16:05
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -12.17%E -3.58%K -5.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 16:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -7.74%E -3.44%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.12%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -10.88%E -3.15%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 16:22
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -9.79%E -4.45%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -9.58%E -2.74%K -3.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 16:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.36%EV -11.02%E -5.08%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.01%EV -10.88%E -3.15%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-06 16:25
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -11.84%E -5.51%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -14.75%E -4.47%K -6.41%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-06 16:20
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.44%EV -13.07%E -6.16%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.94%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -14.75%E -4.47%K -6.41%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-06 16:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.63%EV -11.84%E -5.51%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.15%EV -10.47%E -3.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -8.29%E -2.34%K -3.25%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 16:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -9.79%E -4.45%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -12.12%E -4.58%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -5.71%E -1.56%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.96%EV -9.79%E -4.45%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.01%EV -12.12%E -4.58%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 15:45
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.35%EV -13.89%E -6.61%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.94%EV -13.12%E -5.01%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.71%EV -3.13%E -0.833%K -1.14%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-06 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%0.6%2026-09-06 16:20
Matchbook2.40I 41.67%NM 41.42%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%0.6%2026-09-06 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.62%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42%0.9%2026-09-06 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-09-06 16:25
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 41.60%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.68%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%1.0%2026-09-06 16:25
Smarkets2.38I 42.02%NM 41.41%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.28%1.5%2026-09-06 16:25