Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Anderlecht v Genk

Inicio: 2026-09-06 16:30 UTC

Final: Anderlecht 0–0 Genk

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Anderlecht (Local)

Predicción 41.01%2.44momio equitativo
EV +1.28%
Ventaja +0.520%
Kelly +0.874%
Crecimiento +0.011%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.47

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.27%41.18%40.96%42.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.242.252.4747.62%44.68%44.44%40.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Genk (Visitante)

Predicción 33.16%3.02momio equitativo
EV +2.80%
Ventaja +0.903%
Kelly +1.33%
Crecimiento +0.037%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.92%33.05%33.10%35.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.622.842.813.1038.17%35.25%35.59%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.83%3.87momio equitativo
EV -2.09%
Ventaja -0.552%
Kelly -0.750%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.79

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.71%25.78%25.94%27.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.543.603.7930.77%28.28%27.78%26.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Anderlecht (Local): 41.01%; Genk (Visitante): 33.16%; Empate: 25.83%. Para Genk (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.02. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.10, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.80%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.22%EV -6.51%E -2.85%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.05%EV +2.80%E +0.903%K +1.33%G +0.037%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-06 16:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.22%EV -6.51%E -2.85%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.05%EV +2.80%E +0.903%K +1.33%G +0.037%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-06 16:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.22%EV -6.51%E -2.85%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.05%EV +2.80%E +0.903%K +1.33%G +0.037%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-06 16:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -8.56%E -3.84%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -0.518%E -0.173%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -10.88%E -3.15%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 15:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -8.56%E -3.84%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -0.518%E -0.173%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -10.88%E -3.15%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 15:55
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -8.56%E -3.84%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -0.518%E -0.173%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -10.88%E -3.15%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 15:55
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -8.56%E -3.84%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -0.518%E -0.173%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -10.88%E -3.15%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 15:55
Pinnacle🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.39%EV -4.05%E -1.73%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.72%EV -1.84%E -0.623%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.89%EV -3.38%E -0.905%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-06 16:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -7.74%E -3.44%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -2.18%E -0.738%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -9.58%E -2.74%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 16:25
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.85%EV -10.61%E -4.87%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -2.18%E -0.738%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.23%EV -13.46%E -4.02%K -5.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 15:55
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -11.84%E -5.51%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -3.83%E -1.32%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.58%E -2.74%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 13:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -11.84%E -5.51%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -3.83%E -1.32%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.58%E -2.74%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -11.84%E -5.51%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -3.83%E -1.32%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.58%E -2.74%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 13:35
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.74%EV -11.02%E -5.08%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -3.83%E -1.32%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -13.46%E -4.02%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 16:25
TABtouch🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.74%EV -11.02%E -5.08%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -3.83%E -1.32%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -13.46%E -4.02%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 16:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.74%EV -11.02%E -5.08%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -3.83%E -1.32%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -13.46%E -4.02%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 16:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -11.84%E -5.51%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -4.50%E -1.56%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -14.75%E -4.47%K -6.41%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-06 15:55
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.49%E -1.93%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 15:44
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.49%E -1.93%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 15:45
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -7.74%E -3.44%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -5.49%E -1.93%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 16:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.73%EV -13.07%E -6.16%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.04%EV -5.49%E -1.93%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -16.04%E -4.94%K -7.13%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 15:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.73%EV -13.07%E -6.16%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.04%EV -5.49%E -1.93%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -16.04%E -4.94%K -7.13%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 15:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.63%EV -4.87%E -2.10%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.19%EV -5.82%E -2.05%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 16:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.10%EV -6.92%E -3.05%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.85%EV -5.82%E -2.05%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -7.52%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 16:25
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.74%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.23%EV -6.49%E -2.30%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 16:10
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.74%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.23%EV -6.49%E -2.30%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 16:09
Suprabets🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -7.74%E -3.44%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.84%EV -6.49%E -2.30%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.01%EV -8.03%E -2.26%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 16:23
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -3.13%E -0.833%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 16:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.23%EV -4.05%E -1.73%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 16:25
BetAnything🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.23%EV -4.05%E -1.73%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 16:25
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.79%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -5.71%E -1.56%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 16:20
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:45
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -11.84%E -5.51%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.17%E -3.58%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 16:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -11.84%E -5.51%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.17%E -3.58%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 16:20
1xBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.27%EV +1.28%E +0.520%K +0.874%G +0.011%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.14%EV -8.48%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.59%EV -2.09%E -0.552%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-06 16:20
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -4.42%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 16:24
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -4.42%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 16:25
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -7.74%E -3.44%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -3.13%E -0.833%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 16:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.22%EV -7.74%E -3.44%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -4.42%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 16:25
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.07%EV -7.74%E -3.44%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -5.71%E -1.56%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 16:05
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.74%E -3.44%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 16:05
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -5.69%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -12.17%E -3.58%K -5.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 16:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -7.74%E -3.44%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.12%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -10.88%E -3.15%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 16:22
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -9.79%E -4.45%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -9.58%E -2.74%K -3.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 16:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.36%EV -11.02%E -5.08%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.01%EV -10.88%E -3.15%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-06 16:25
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -11.84%E -5.51%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -14.75%E -4.47%K -6.41%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-06 16:20
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.44%EV -13.07%E -6.16%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.94%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -14.75%E -4.47%K -6.41%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-06 16:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.63%EV -11.84%E -5.51%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.15%EV -10.47%E -3.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -8.29%E -2.34%K -3.25%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 16:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -9.79%E -4.45%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -12.12%E -4.58%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -5.71%E -1.56%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.96%EV -9.79%E -4.45%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.01%EV -12.12%E -4.58%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -7.00%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 15:45
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.35%EV -13.89%E -6.61%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.94%EV -13.12%E -5.01%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.71%EV -3.13%E -0.833%K -1.14%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-06 16:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%0.6%2026-09-06 16:20
Matchbook◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.42%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%0.6%2026-09-06 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.62%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42%0.9%2026-09-06 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-09-06 16:25
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.60%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.68%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%1.0%2026-09-06 16:25
Smarkets◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.41%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.28%1.5%2026-09-06 16:25