La escuela de los momios

Sturm Graz v RB Salzburg

Inicio: 2026-03-20 18:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Sturm Graz (Local)

Predicción 27.33%3.66momio equitativo
EV +1.12%
Ventaja +0.304%
Kelly +0.416%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.15%27.43%27.36%29.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.293.253.7032.26%30.37%30.77%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

RB Salzburg (Visitante)

Predicción 46.13%2.17momio equitativo
EV -4.04%
Ventaja -1.94%
Kelly -3.74%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.08

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.77%46.07%46.14%46.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.802.002.002.0855.56%50.04%50.00%48.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.54%3.77momio equitativo
EV -1.82%
Ventaja -0.492%
Kelly -0.674%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.18%26.51%26.51%28.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.453.503.7033.33%28.96%28.57%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag3.70I 27.03%NM 26.15%EV +1.12%E +0.304%K +0.416%G +0.005%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.97%EV -4.96%E -2.41%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.88%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 18:15
BetOnline.ag3.70I 27.03%NM 26.15%EV +1.12%E +0.304%K +0.416%G +0.005%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.97%EV -4.96%E -2.41%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.88%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 18:14
Pinnacle3.65I 27.40%NM 26.49%EV -0.243%E -0.067%K -0.092%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.49%EV -4.04%E -1.94%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.01%EV -5.00%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-20 18:20
Coolbet3.58I 27.93%NM 26.61%EV -2.16%E -0.602%K -0.836%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.93%EV -6.35%E -3.13%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-20 18:18
FanDuel3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.73%E -3.87%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.13%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 18:20
1xBet3.46I 28.90%NM 27.71%EV -5.44%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.09%EV -4.04%E -1.94%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.20%EV -2.88%E -0.787%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 18:24
Bovada3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.66%EV -7.73%E -3.87%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -5.80%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 18:23
NordicBet3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -6.81%E -3.37%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -8.45%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-20 18:14
Betsson3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -6.81%E -3.37%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -8.45%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-20 18:15
Suprabets3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.48%EV -9.58%E -4.89%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.11%EV -10.84%E -3.23%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-20 18:17
DraftKings3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.43%E -2.65%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 18:20
BetMGM3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -7.73%E -3.87%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.13%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-20 17:59
Betr (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -7.73%E -3.87%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -1.82%E -0.492%K -0.674%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 18:20
Bet Right3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.64%EV -9.12%E -4.63%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-20 18:20
PlayUp3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -7.73%E -3.87%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -12.43%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-20 18:15
Neds3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -10.04%E -5.15%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -12.43%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-20 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -10.04%E -5.15%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -12.43%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-20 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -10.04%E -5.15%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -12.43%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-20 18:00
Coral3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -10.04%E -5.15%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -12.43%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-20 18:00
Sky Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -10.04%E -5.15%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -13.76%E -4.23%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-20 18:25
SportsBet3.30I 30.30%NM 26.65%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.29%EV -12.35%E -6.50%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.06%EV -13.76%E -4.23%K -6.12%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-20 18:20
Betclic (FR)3.27I 30.58%NM 27.31%EV -10.63%E -3.25%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.27%EV -10.96%E -5.68%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.42%EV -10.31%E -3.05%K -4.33%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-20 18:10
Betway3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -11.18%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -5.43%E -2.65%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.13%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-20 18:20
Winamax (DE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -11.18%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.15%EV -8.65%E -4.37%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -5.80%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-20 17:55
888sport3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -11.18%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -7.73%E -3.87%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.78%E -2.88%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 18:25
888sport (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -11.18%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -7.73%E -3.87%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.78%E -2.88%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 18:24
Mr Green (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -11.18%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -7.73%E -3.87%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.78%E -2.88%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 18:25
William Hill3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -11.18%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -7.73%E -3.87%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.78%E -2.88%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 18:25
Parions Sport (FR)3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -12.54%E -3.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.96%EV -11.88%E -6.22%K -13.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -12.43%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-20 18:15
BoyleSports3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -12.54%E -3.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.96%EV -11.88%E -6.22%K -13.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -12.43%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-20 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 26.72%EV -12.54%E -3.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.77%EV -11.88%E -6.22%K -13.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.50%EV -20.39%E -6.80%K -10.20%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-20 18:20
Unibet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -5.43%E -2.65%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -5.80%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-13 18:39
Grosvenor3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -5.43%E -2.65%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -5.80%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-13 18:40
Unibet (SE)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -5.43%E -2.65%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -5.80%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-16 12:14
BetRivers3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -5.43%E -2.65%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -5.80%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-13 18:40
Unibet (NL)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -5.43%E -2.65%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -5.80%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-13 18:40
Casumo3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -5.43%E -2.65%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -5.80%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-13 18:40
TABtouch3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -5.43%E -2.65%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -5.80%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-13 18:40
ATG (SE)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -5.43%E -2.65%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -5.80%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-13 18:40
Svenska Spel3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -5.43%E -2.65%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -5.80%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-13 18:40
LiveScore Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 28.91%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.08%EV -6.81%E -3.37%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.13%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-13 18:40
LeoVegas3.15I 31.75%NM 28.91%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.08%EV -6.81%E -3.37%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.13%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-13 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)3.15I 31.75%NM 28.91%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.08%EV -6.81%E -3.37%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.13%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-13 18:40
Virgin Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 28.91%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.08%EV -6.81%E -3.37%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.13%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-13 18:40
PMU (FR)3.15I 31.75%NM 26.55%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 46.47%EV -16.96%E -9.42%K -21.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.98%EV -17.74%E -5.72%K -8.45%G +0.000%19.6%2026-03-20 18:20
Winamax (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -15.27%E -4.93%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.79%EV -11.42%E -5.95%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.86%EV -9.78%E -2.88%K -4.07%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-20 17:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.17%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42%1.0%2026-03-20 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.17%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42%1.0%2026-03-20 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.75I 26.67%NM 26.32%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.00%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.68%1.3%2026-03-20 18:15
Matchbook3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.99%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.04%1.3%2026-03-20 18:25
Smarkets3.70I 27.03%NM 26.37%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.90%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73%2.5%2026-03-20 18:25