Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ried v Rapid Wien

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 17:30 UTC

Final: Ried 2–1 Rapid Wien

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ried (Local)

Prediction 38.71%2.58fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -2.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.19%38.61%38.87%40.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.402.402.4846.51%41.63%41.67%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rapid Wien (Visit)

Prediction 31.84%3.14fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.519%
Kelly -0.768%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.91%31.93%31.75%33.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.832.803.0938.02%35.34%35.71%32.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.44%3.40fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.587%
Kelly -0.840%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.46%29.46%29.38%30.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.103.103.3335.71%32.26%32.26%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ried (Local): 38.71%; Rapid Wien (Visit): 31.84%; Draw: 29.44%. For Rapid Wien (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.09, with an expected value of -1.60%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -3.99%E -1.61%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -12.43%E -4.52%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-22 16:00
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -3.99%E -1.61%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -12.43%E -4.52%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-22 16:00
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -3.99%E -1.61%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -12.43%E -4.52%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-22 16:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -3.99%E -1.61%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -12.43%E -4.52%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-22 16:00
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -3.99%E -1.61%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -12.43%E -4.52%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-22 16:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -3.99%E -1.61%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -12.43%E -4.52%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-22 16:00
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -3.99%E -1.61%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -12.43%E -4.52%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-22 16:01
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -3.99%E -1.61%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -12.43%E -4.52%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-22 16:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -3.99%E -1.61%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -12.43%E -4.52%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-22 16:01
1xBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.86%EV -4.38%E -1.77%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.06%EV -1.60%E -0.519%K -0.768%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.09%EV -6.08%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-22 17:20
Pinnacle🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.33%EV -4.76%E -1.94%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.62%EV -2.56%E -0.837%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.05%EV -1.96%E -0.587%K -0.840%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-22 17:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.18%EV -4.76%E -1.94%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.52%EV -5.11%E -1.71%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.30%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-22 17:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.18%EV -4.76%E -1.94%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.52%EV -5.11%E -1.71%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.30%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-22 17:10
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -5.15%E -2.10%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -4.47%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.98%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:00
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -5.15%E -2.10%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.84%EV -6.06%E -2.06%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-22 17:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -5.15%E -2.10%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -9.25%E -3.24%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.78%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-22 17:00
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -5.15%E -2.10%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -9.25%E -3.24%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.78%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-22 17:00
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -5.15%E -2.10%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -9.25%E -3.24%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-22 17:09
LeoVegas🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -5.92%E -2.44%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -14.02%E -5.19%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-22 16:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -5.92%E -2.44%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -14.02%E -5.19%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-22 16:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -5.92%E -2.44%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -14.02%E -5.19%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-22 16:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -5.92%E -2.44%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -14.02%E -5.19%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-22 16:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -7.09%E -2.95%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -6.06%E -2.06%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.78%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-22 15:40
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -7.09%E -2.95%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -4.47%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-22 17:09
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -7.09%E -2.95%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.06%E -2.06%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-22 15:39
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -7.09%E -2.95%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.26%EV -8.29%E -2.88%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -5.78%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-22 17:10
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -7.09%E -2.95%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-22 17:00
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.09%E -2.95%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.65%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-22 17:00
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.09%E -2.95%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.65%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-22 17:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.09%E -2.95%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.65%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-22 17:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.09%E -2.95%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.65%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-22 17:00
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -7.09%E -2.95%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -14.02%E -5.19%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-22 17:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -7.09%E -2.95%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -14.02%E -5.19%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-22 17:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -7.09%E -2.95%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -14.02%E -5.19%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-22 17:10
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -7.09%E -2.95%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -14.02%E -5.19%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-22 17:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.61%EV -7.86%E -3.30%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -3.83%E -1.27%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.18%EV -4.90%E -1.52%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-22 15:39
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -7.86%E -3.30%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -5.11%E -1.71%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -5.78%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-22 17:10
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -7.86%E -3.30%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -5.11%E -1.71%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -5.78%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-22 17:20
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -7.86%E -3.30%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -12.43%E -4.52%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-22 17:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.36%EV -9.02%E -3.84%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.38%EV -16.25%E -6.18%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.26%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-22 16:00
Suprabets🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.02%EV -9.80%E -4.20%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 31.46%EV -7.97%E -2.76%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.52%EV -9.32%E -3.02%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-22 17:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.59%EV -10.96%E -4.76%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -9.25%E -3.24%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -5.78%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-22 15:40
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -10.96%E -4.76%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.65%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-22 17:10
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -10.96%E -4.76%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -14.02%E -5.19%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-22 17:10
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.25%EV -10.96%E -4.76%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.42%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.33%EV -14.62%E -5.04%K -7.69%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-22 17:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -10.96%E -4.76%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -14.02%E -5.19%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.73%EV -17.56%E -6.27%K -9.76%G +0.000%16.2%2026-05-22 17:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.13%EV -12.89%E -5.73%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.01%EV -12.43%E -4.52%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.86%EV -10.20%E -3.34%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-22 15:40
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.43%EV -12.89%E -5.73%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.44%EV -12.43%E -4.52%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.13%EV -15.50%E -5.40%K -8.29%G +0.000%15.7%2026-05-22 17:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.25%EV -16.76%E -7.80%K -14.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-22 17:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.54I 39.37%NM 38.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.88%1.4%2026-05-22 17:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.54I 39.37%NM 38.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.88%1.4%2026-05-22 17:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.54I 39.37%NM 38.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.88%1.4%2026-05-22 17:10
Matchbook2.54I 39.37%NM 38.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.88%1.4%2026-05-22 17:20
Smarkets2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.06%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11%2.2%2026-05-22 17:00