La escuela de los momios

RB Salzburg v Rapid Wien

Inicio: 2026-03-15 13:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

RB Salzburg (Local)

Predicción 55.10%1.82momio equitativo
EV -3.58%
Ventaja -2.05%
Kelly -4.78%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.61%55.40%55.19%60.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.521.651.651.7565.79%60.51%60.61%57.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Rapid Wien (Visitante)

Predicción 20.45%4.89momio equitativo
EV +16.58%
Ventaja +2.91%
Kelly +3.53%
Crecimiento +0.585%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.70%20.22%20.48%21.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.104.514.505.7024.39%22.16%22.22%17.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.45%4.09momio equitativo
EV +2.70%
Ventaja +0.642%
Kelly +0.843%
Crecimiento +0.023%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.67%24.38%24.34%26.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.253.753.804.2030.77%26.66%26.32%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.63%EV -13.50%E -8.60%K -23.68%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.70%EV +16.58%E +2.91%K +3.53%G +0.585%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV +2.70%E +0.642%K +0.843%G +0.023%5.0%2026-03-15 10:25
Pinnacle1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -4.13%E -2.38%K -5.59%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.59%EV +0.628%E +0.128%K +0.160%G +0.001%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.03%EV -5.86%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-15 13:20
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.48%EV -5.79%E -3.38%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.19%EV -3.87%E -0.824%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.33%EV -4.64%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 13:15
FanDuel1.69I 59.17%NM 55.42%EV -6.89%E -4.08%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -3.87%E -0.824%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -7.08%E -1.86%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-15 13:15
Betr (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -7.44%E -4.43%K -10.94%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -3.87%E -0.824%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.08%E -1.86%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 13:20
Unibet1.61I 62.11%NM 56.97%EV -11.30%E -7.02%K -18.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.87%E -0.824%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.52%EV -4.64%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-15 13:15
Unibet (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.97%EV -11.30%E -7.02%K -18.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.87%E -0.824%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.52%EV -4.64%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-15 13:15
Casumo1.61I 62.11%NM 56.97%EV -11.30%E -7.02%K -18.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.87%E -0.824%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.52%EV -4.64%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-15 13:15
TABtouch1.61I 62.11%NM 56.97%EV -11.30%E -7.02%K -18.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.87%E -0.824%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.52%EV -4.64%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-15 13:15
BetRivers1.61I 62.11%NM 56.97%EV -11.30%E -7.02%K -18.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.87%E -0.824%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.52%EV -4.64%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-15 13:15
Svenska Spel1.61I 62.11%NM 56.97%EV -11.30%E -7.02%K -18.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.87%E -0.824%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.52%EV -4.64%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-15 13:15
ATG (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.97%EV -11.30%E -7.02%K -18.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.87%E -0.824%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.52%EV -4.64%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-15 13:15
Grosvenor1.61I 62.11%NM 56.97%EV -11.30%E -7.02%K -18.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.87%E -0.824%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.52%EV -4.64%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-15 13:15
Unibet (NL)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.97%EV -11.30%E -7.02%K -18.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.87%E -0.824%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.52%EV -4.64%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-15 13:15
1xBet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.84%EV -3.58%E -2.05%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.68%EV -5.10%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.48%EV -4.15%E -1.06%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-15 13:20
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.34%E -3.73%K -9.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -4.64%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 13:25
Bet Right1.65I 60.61%NM 55.60%EV -9.09%E -5.51%K -13.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -8.31%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-15 13:20
Virgin Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 56.71%EV -11.85%E -7.40%K -19.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -5.86%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-15 13:15
LiveScore Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 56.71%EV -11.85%E -7.40%K -19.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -5.86%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-15 13:15
LeoVegas1.60I 62.50%NM 56.71%EV -11.85%E -7.40%K -19.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -5.86%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-15 13:15
LeoVegas (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 56.71%EV -11.85%E -7.40%K -19.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -5.86%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-15 13:15
LowVig.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 55.94%EV -6.89%E -4.08%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.06%EV +0.251%E +0.061%K +0.081%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-15 13:15
BetOnline.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 55.94%EV -6.89%E -4.08%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.06%EV +0.251%E +0.061%K +0.081%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-15 13:15
Bovada1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%EV -5.24%E -3.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -7.08%E -1.86%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-15 13:20
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 54.94%EV -6.89%E -4.08%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.43%EV -7.08%E -1.86%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-15 13:15
Betway1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.68%E -2.71%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -11.97%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-15 13:15
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.34%E -3.73%K -9.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.97%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 13:20
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.34%E -3.73%K -9.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.97%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 13:20
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.34%E -3.73%K -9.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.97%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 13:25
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.34%E -3.73%K -9.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.97%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 13:25
Suprabets1.67I 59.88%NM 54.46%EV -7.99%E -4.78%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 25.33%EV -12.22%E -3.40%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-15 13:18
NordicBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -5.24%E -3.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -8.98%E -2.02%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -9.53%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 13:15
Betsson1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -5.24%E -3.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -8.98%E -2.02%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -9.53%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 13:15
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 54.68%EV -6.89%E -4.08%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -10.01%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.08%E -1.86%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 13:25
Betclic (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 55.17%EV -10.75%E -6.63%K -17.33%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.55%EV -11.03%E -2.54%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.29%EV -10.02%E -2.72%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-15 13:22
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 54.44%EV -10.75%E -6.63%K -17.33%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.37%EV -11.44%E -2.64%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%EV -14.42%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-15 13:14
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.33%EV -9.64%E -5.88%K -15.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.10%EV -12.05%E -2.80%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -5.86%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-15 13:25
Parions Sport (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 54.92%EV -11.85%E -7.40%K -19.75%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.67%EV -13.08%E -3.08%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -11.97%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-15 13:25
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 52.61%EV -5.24%E -3.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -14.10%E -3.36%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -14.42%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-15 13:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 54.02%EV -9.09%E -5.51%K -13.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -14.10%E -3.36%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.76%EV -11.97%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-15 13:15
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 54.02%EV -9.09%E -5.51%K -13.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -14.10%E -3.36%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.76%EV -11.97%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-15 13:15
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 54.02%EV -9.09%E -5.51%K -13.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -14.10%E -3.36%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.76%EV -11.97%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-15 13:15
Neds1.65I 60.61%NM 54.02%EV -9.09%E -5.51%K -13.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -14.10%E -3.36%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.76%EV -11.97%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-15 13:15
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -7.99%E -4.78%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -14.10%E -3.36%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -14.42%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-15 13:15
SportsBet1.61I 62.11%NM 54.25%EV -11.30%E -7.02%K -18.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.80%EV -14.10%E -3.36%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.95%EV -14.42%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000%14.5%2026-03-15 13:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 53.07%EV -10.75%E -6.63%K -17.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.47%EV -14.10%E -3.36%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.46%EV -20.53%E -6.32%K -9.13%G +0.000%16.3%2026-03-15 13:15
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 54.86%EV -11.85%E -7.40%K -19.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -16.14%E -3.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.73%EV -9.53%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-15 13:24
PMU (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 54.81%EV -16.25%E -10.69%K -31.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.32%EV -16.14%E -3.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.87%EV -18.09%E -5.40%K -7.70%G +0.000%20.0%2026-03-15 13:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.78I 56.18%NM 55.64%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.15%1.0%2026-03-15 13:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.30%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.09%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%1.6%2026-03-15 13:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.30%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.09%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%1.6%2026-03-15 13:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.30%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.09%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%1.6%2026-03-15 13:20
Smarkets1.76I 56.82%NM 55.58%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.96%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.46%2.2%2026-03-15 13:25