Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rapid Wien v RB Salzburg

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 12:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rapid Wien (Local)

Prediction 27.46%3.64fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -0.714%
Kelly -0.994%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.71%27.52%27.43%29.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.253.203.5533.33%30.72%31.25%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RB Salzburg (Visit)

Prediction 46.58%2.15fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -3.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%46.50%46.60%47.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.841.992.002.0754.35%50.37%50.00%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.97%3.85fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -0.698%
Kelly -0.952%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.93%25.98%25.97%27.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.483.453.7532.26%28.71%28.99%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rapid Wien (Local): 27.46%; RB Salzburg (Visit): 46.58%; Draw: 25.97%. For Rapid Wien (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.55, with an expected value of -2.53%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%EV -2.53%E -0.714%K -0.994%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.60%EV -6.85%E -3.42%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.59%EV -3.40%E -0.913%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 12:39
Pinnacle🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 26.93%EV -3.08%E -0.873%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.30%EV -6.38%E -3.17%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.77%EV -4.18%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 07:24
1xBet🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 27.09%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.87%EV -6.85%E -3.42%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -6.51%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-24 03:00
Betsson🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -7.78%E -3.93%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -7.81%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 07:19
NordicBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -7.78%E -3.93%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -7.81%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 07:19
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.40%EV -5.92%E -2.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.51%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 12:34
Bovada🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -6.85%E -3.42%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -5.22%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 13:41
DraftKings🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.85%E -3.42%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.51%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 12:34
LowVig.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -5.92%E -2.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -9.11%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 11:29
BetOnline.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -5.92%E -2.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -9.11%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 11:29
theScore Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -6.85%E -3.42%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -7.81%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 14:14
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -9.18%E -4.71%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -3.92%E -1.06%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 07:28
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.18%E -4.71%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.71%E -3.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 12:29
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.18%E -4.71%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.71%E -3.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 12:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.18%E -4.71%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.71%E -3.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 12:30
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.18%E -4.71%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.71%E -3.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 12:30
Betr (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -6.85%E -3.42%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -2.62%E -0.698%K -0.952%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 19:09
Betway🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -6.85%E -3.42%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -6.51%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-22 18:04
BetMGM🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -6.85%E -3.42%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -6.51%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 15:45
PlayUp🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -9.18%E -4.71%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.71%E -3.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 07:20
Sky Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -10.77%E -3.31%K -4.79%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -11.04%E -5.78%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -9.11%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-23 12:35
SportsBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -10.77%E -3.31%K -4.79%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.00%EV -11.50%E -6.06%K -12.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.52%EV -9.11%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-23 07:30
Suprabets🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -10.77%E -3.31%K -4.79%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.62%EV -11.50%E -6.06%K -12.78%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 26.13%EV -11.97%E -3.53%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-24 03:10
Bet Right🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.63%EV -12.14%E -3.79%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.27%EV -7.78%E -3.93%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -5.22%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 19:10
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -12.14%E -3.79%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.18%E -4.71%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.71%E -3.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 15:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -12.14%E -3.79%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.18%E -4.71%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.71%E -3.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 15:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -12.14%E -3.79%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.18%E -4.71%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.71%E -3.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 15:44
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -12.14%E -3.79%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.18%E -4.71%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.71%E -3.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 15:44
Betclic (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.41%EV -12.14%E -3.79%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 46.65%EV -12.44%E -6.61%K -14.13%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 25.95%EV -12.23%E -3.62%K -5.14%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-22 23:34
Unibet (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.24%EV -12.14%E -3.79%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.12%EV -13.83%E -7.48%K -16.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.64%EV -11.71%E -3.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%14.7%2026-04-22 23:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 26.97%EV -12.14%E -3.79%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.19%EV -11.04%E -5.78%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.84%EV -19.50%E -6.29%K -9.28%G +0.000%15.9%2026-04-23 07:29
TABtouch🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -13.52%E -4.29%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.30%EV -3.59%E -1.73%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -10.41%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-20 11:15
BetRivers🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -13.52%E -4.29%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.30%EV -3.59%E -1.73%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -10.41%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-20 11:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -13.52%E -4.29%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.30%EV -3.59%E -1.73%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -10.41%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-20 11:15
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -13.52%E -4.29%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.30%EV -3.59%E -1.73%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -10.41%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-20 11:14
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -13.52%E -4.29%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.30%EV -3.59%E -1.73%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -10.41%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-20 11:15
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -13.52%E -4.29%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.30%EV -3.59%E -1.73%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -10.41%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-20 11:15
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -13.52%E -4.29%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.30%EV -3.59%E -1.73%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -10.41%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-20 11:15
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -13.52%E -4.29%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.30%EV -3.59%E -1.73%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -10.41%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-20 11:14
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -13.52%E -4.29%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.30%EV -3.59%E -1.73%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -10.41%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-20 11:14
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.24%EV -13.52%E -4.29%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.34%EV -10.57%E -5.51%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -9.11%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-22 23:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -14.89%E -4.80%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -4.52%E -2.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -10.41%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-20 11:15
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -14.89%E -4.80%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -4.52%E -2.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -10.41%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-20 11:14
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -14.89%E -4.80%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -4.52%E -2.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -10.41%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-20 11:14
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -14.89%E -4.80%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -4.52%E -2.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -10.41%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-20 11:15
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -14.89%E -4.80%K -7.09%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -9.18%E -4.71%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -6.51%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-23 19:10
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.29%EV -14.89%E -4.80%K -7.09%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.92%EV -11.04%E -5.78%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -11.71%E -3.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-22 16:44
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.25%EV -17.63%E -5.88%K -8.82%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.55%EV -8.24%E -4.18%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -13.01%E -3.88%K -5.53%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-20 11:15
Winamax (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.25%EV -17.63%E -5.88%K -8.82%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 46.06%EV -14.30%E -7.77%K -17.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.68%EV -14.30%E -4.33%K -6.22%G +0.000%18.0%2026-04-22 23:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%11.5%2026-04-23 12:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.08%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.55%12.4%2026-04-24 03:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.08%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.55%12.4%2026-04-24 03:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.70%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.73%13.4%2026-04-23 21:35