Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.95
assuming max odds 4.10
assuming max odds 3.90
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: LASK (Local): 49.77%; Rapid Wien (Visit): 24.94%; Draw: 25.29%. For Rapid Wien (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.25%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.86%EV -5.43%E -2.86%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57%EV +2.25%E +0.549%K +0.725%G +0.016% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.57%EV -4.41%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-04 18:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -10.41%E -5.78%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -0.245%E -0.061%K -0.082%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.44%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 18:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.07%EV -6.43%E -3.42%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -2.74%E -0.702%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -7.70%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-04 18:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.07%EV -6.43%E -3.42%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -2.74%E -0.702%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -7.70%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-04 18:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.49%EV -5.43%E -2.86%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.92%EV -3.99%E -1.04%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.60%EV -1.38%E -0.353%K -0.475%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-04 18:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.84%EV -2.94%E -1.51%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -7.70%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-04 15:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -6.92%E -3.70%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -3.91%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-04 18:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.23%EV -6.92%E -3.70%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -5.17%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-04 18:18 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.92%E -4.28%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-04 18:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.92%E -4.28%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-04 18:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.92%E -4.28%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-04 18:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.92%E -4.28%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-04 18:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.93%EV -6.43%E -3.42%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.17%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-04 18:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.55%EV -6.92%E -3.70%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-04 18:14 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -10.41%E -5.78%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.02%E -4.12%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -6.43%E -3.42%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -6.44%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 17:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -6.43%E -3.42%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -6.44%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 17:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.35%EV -14.39%E -8.37%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.41%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.24%EV -16.55%E -5.02%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-05-04 18:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -6.92%E -3.70%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.44%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 18:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.32%EV -5.43%E -2.86%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -3.91%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -3.91%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-04 18:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.32%EV -6.92%E -3.70%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -14.02%E -4.12%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.04%EV -4.43%E -2.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -11.47%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -10.23%E -2.88%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.04%EV -4.43%E -2.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -11.47%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -10.23%E -2.88%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.04%EV -4.43%E -2.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -11.47%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -10.23%E -2.88%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.04%EV -4.43%E -2.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -11.47%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -10.23%E -2.88%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.04%EV -4.43%E -2.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -11.47%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -10.23%E -2.88%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.04%EV -4.43%E -2.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -11.47%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -10.23%E -2.88%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.04%EV -4.43%E -2.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -11.47%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -10.23%E -2.88%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.04%EV -4.43%E -2.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -11.47%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -10.23%E -2.88%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.04%EV -4.43%E -2.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -11.47%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -10.23%E -2.88%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 49.82%EV -10.91%E -6.09%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 25.26%EV -11.97%E -3.39%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 24.91%EV -9.47%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-04 18:07 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.73%EV -6.43%E -3.42%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -7.70%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.08%EV -5.93%E -3.14%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.08%EV -5.93%E -3.14%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.87%EV -9.41%E -5.17%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -5.17%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-04 18:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.21%EV -6.43%E -3.42%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.21%EV -6.43%E -3.42%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -14.02%E -4.12%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-04 18:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -14.02%E -4.12%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-04 18:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -14.02%E -4.12%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-04 18:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -14.02%E -4.12%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-04 18:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.46%EV -13.89%E -8.03%K -19.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.94%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.59%EV -10.23%E -2.88%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-05-04 18:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -15.21%E -4.47%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.16%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -15.21%E -4.47%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -14.02%E -4.12%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 49.64%EV -12.90%E -7.37%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.55%EV -15.21%E -4.47%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.82%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-04 17:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.36%EV -11.40%E -6.41%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.23%EV -16.46%E -4.91%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-04 18:10 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.58% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39% | 1.0% | 2026-05-04 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.58% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39% | 1.0% | 2026-05-04 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.58% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39% | 1.0% | 2026-05-04 18:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.58% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39% | 1.0% | 2026-05-04 18:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.26% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.31% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.43% | 2.1% | 2026-05-04 18:20 |