Language:English
Hartberg v Sturm Graz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hartberg (Local)
Prediction 20.68%4.84fair odd
EV +9.60%
Edge +1.81%
Kelly +2.23%
Growth +0.214%
assuming max odds 5.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.33%20.55%20.77%22.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.654.505.3025.00%21.51%22.22%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sturm Graz (Visit)
Prediction 54.61%1.83fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -4.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.61%54.68%54.58%58.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.651.671.7766.23%60.44%59.88%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.71%4.05fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.290%
Kelly -0.387%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.52%24.77%24.64%26.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.713.754.0029.85%26.98%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hartberg (Local): 20.68%; Sturm Graz (Visit): 54.61%; Draw: 24.71%. For Hartberg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.84. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.60%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.39%EV +9.60%E +1.81%K +2.23%G +0.214% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.35%EV -13.71%E -8.68%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-04 01:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV +9.60%E +1.81%K +2.23%G +0.214% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.50%EV -14.26%E -9.08%K -25.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-04 01:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV +9.60%E +1.81%K +2.23%G +0.214% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.50%EV -14.26%E -9.08%K -25.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-04 01:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV +9.60%E +1.81%K +2.23%G +0.214% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.50%EV -14.26%E -9.08%K -25.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-04 01:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV +9.60%E +1.81%K +2.23%G +0.214% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.50%EV -14.26%E -9.08%K -25.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-04 01:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV +9.60%E +1.81%K +2.23%G +0.214% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.50%EV -14.26%E -9.08%K -25.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-04 01:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV +9.60%E +1.81%K +2.23%G +0.214% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.50%EV -14.26%E -9.08%K -25.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-04 01:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV +9.60%E +1.81%K +2.23%G +0.214% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.50%EV -14.26%E -9.08%K -25.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-04 01:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV +9.60%E +1.81%K +2.23%G +0.214% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.50%EV -14.26%E -9.08%K -25.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-04 01:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.48%EV +7.53%E +1.45%K +1.79%G +0.135% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.28%EV -14.81%E -9.49%K -26.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-04 01:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.48%EV +7.53%E +1.45%K +1.79%G +0.135% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.28%EV -14.81%E -9.49%K -26.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-04 01:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.48%EV +7.53%E +1.45%K +1.79%G +0.135% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.28%EV -14.81%E -9.49%K -26.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-04 01:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.54%EV +3.40%E +0.679%K +0.849%G +0.029% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 58.09%EV -17.54%E -11.61%K -34.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-04 01:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.91I 20.37%NM 19.69%EV +1.53%E +0.312%K +0.392%G +0.006% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.61%EV -3.34%E -1.89%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.71%EV -7.09%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-08 17:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV +1.33%E +0.271%K +0.340%G +0.005% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.12%EV -7.71%E -4.56%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-08 17:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -0.740%E -0.154%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.95%EV -8.80%E -5.27%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 16:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -1.77%E -0.374%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.86%EV -8.25%E -4.91%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -4.87%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-07 21:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -4.88%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.07%EV -6.62%E -3.87%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -4.87%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 16:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -4.88%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -7.16%E -4.21%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 16:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -4.88%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.34%EV -8.80%E -5.27%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -13.52%E -3.86%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-08 17:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.56I 21.93%NM 20.54%EV -5.70%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.14%EV -5.52%E -3.19%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.57%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-08 17:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -6.94%E -1.54%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.97%EV -7.16%E -4.21%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -4.87%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 16:38 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -6.94%E -1.54%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.16%E -4.21%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-08 05:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -6.94%E -1.54%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.16%E -4.21%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-08 05:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -6.94%E -1.54%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.16%E -4.21%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-08 05:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -6.94%E -1.54%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.16%E -4.21%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-08 05:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -6.94%E -1.54%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.20%EV -9.35%E -5.63%K -14.16%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-07 21:05 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%EV -6.94%E -1.54%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 53.81%EV -7.71%E -4.56%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -13.52%E -3.86%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-08 17:06 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -7.98%E -1.79%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -6.07%E -3.53%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -8.57%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 17:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -7.98%E -1.79%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -6.07%E -3.53%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -8.57%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 17:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -9.01%E -2.05%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.02%EV -7.71%E -4.56%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -3.63%E -0.931%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-08 16:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -9.01%E -2.05%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.21%EV -6.62%E -3.87%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 16:14 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -9.01%E -2.05%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -8.80%E -5.27%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -9.81%E -2.69%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-08 16:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.01%EV -9.01%E -2.05%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 53.70%EV -10.44%E -6.36%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.29%EV -17.22%E -5.14%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-08-08 17:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.55%EV -10.46%E -2.42%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.28%EV -8.80%E -5.27%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.17%EV -15.99%E -4.70%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-08 17:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.24%EV -11.08%E -2.58%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.40%EV -6.62%E -3.87%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-08 16:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -11.08%E -2.58%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.86%EV -9.35%E -5.63%K -14.16%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-08 16:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -11.08%E -2.58%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 52.99%EV -7.71%E -4.56%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 26.18%EV -15.49%E -4.53%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-08 17:03 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.41%EV -11.08%E -2.58%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 54.86%EV -12.62%E -7.89%K -21.04%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.73%EV -12.28%E -3.46%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-08 17:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -13.15%E -3.13%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.07%EV -4.98%E -2.86%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -1.16%E -0.290%K -0.387%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-08 17:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -13.15%E -3.13%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.07%EV -4.98%E -2.86%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -1.16%E -0.290%K -0.387%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-08 17:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -13.15%E -3.13%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.61%EV -6.07%E -3.53%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -13.52%E -3.86%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-08 17:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -13.15%E -3.13%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -9.89%E -5.99%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -8.57%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-08 08:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -13.15%E -3.13%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -9.89%E -5.99%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -8.57%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-07 21:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -13.15%E -3.13%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -9.89%E -5.99%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -8.57%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-07 21:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -13.15%E -3.13%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.53%EV -10.44%E -6.36%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.17%EV -8.57%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-08 16:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.01%EV -13.15%E -3.13%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.47%EV -11.53%E -7.12%K -18.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.51%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-05 15:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -17.28%E -4.32%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -5.52%E -3.19%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-08 17:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.27% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70% | 1.1% | 2026-08-08 17:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.27% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70% | 1.1% | 2026-08-08 17:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.27% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70% | 1.1% | 2026-08-08 17:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.90% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.23% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.87% | 1.7% | 2026-08-08 17:20 |
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