Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hartberg v Austria Wien

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 15:00 UTC

Final: Hartberg 0–2 Austria Wien

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hartberg (Local)

Prediction 32.72%3.06fair odd
EV -0.852%
Edge -0.281%
Kelly -0.420%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.11%32.68%32.72%34.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.792.753.0338.17%35.87%36.36%33.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Austria Wien (Visit)

Prediction 38.46%2.60fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%38.55%38.46%39.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.362.382.5144.44%42.33%42.02%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.81%3.47fair odd
EV -0.301%
Edge -0.087%
Kelly -0.123%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.45%28.77%28.83%29.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.153.4633.33%31.58%31.75%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hartberg (Local): 32.72%; Austria Wien (Visit): 38.46%; Draw: 28.81%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.47. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.46, with an expected value of -0.301%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 31.94%EV -0.852%E -0.281%K -0.420%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.56%EV -3.46%E -1.38%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.50%EV -5.49%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-16 14:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -1.83%E -0.611%K -0.917%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -9.61%E -4.09%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -7.79%E -2.44%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 14:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.82%EV -3.14%E -1.06%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.28%EV -5.38%E -2.19%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 14:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.82%EV -3.14%E -1.06%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.28%EV -5.38%E -2.19%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 14:50
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -3.47%E -1.18%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -7.69%E -3.20%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -7.79%E -2.44%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 14:53
1xBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.89%EV -4.45%E -1.52%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.36%EV -6.15%E -2.52%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.75%EV -0.301%E -0.087%K -0.123%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-16 14:50
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -5.11%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.48%EV -5.77%E -2.35%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 14:34
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.11%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -7.69%E -3.20%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 14:49
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -5.11%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -9.61%E -4.09%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.91%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 14:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -6.74%E -2.37%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -5.77%E -2.35%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 06:04
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -6.74%E -2.37%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.21%EV -6.92%E -2.86%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.35%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 14:54
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -6.74%E -2.37%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.21%EV -6.92%E -2.86%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.35%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 14:55
Suprabets🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 32.03%EV -7.07%E -2.49%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.71%EV -9.61%E -4.09%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 29.25%EV -10.39%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-16 14:48
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -8.38%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -7.69%E -3.20%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 14:45
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -8.38%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -8.46%E -3.55%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.67%E -3.44%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-16 14:55
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -8.38%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -8.46%E -3.55%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.67%E -3.44%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-16 14:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -8.38%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -8.46%E -3.55%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.67%E -3.44%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-16 14:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -8.38%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -8.46%E -3.55%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.67%E -3.44%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-16 14:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -8.38%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -11.53%E -5.02%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -10.67%E -3.44%K -5.08%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 14:54
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.84%E -1.54%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -4.91%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 13:19
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -7.69%E -3.20%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -7.79%E -2.44%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 08:29
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.02%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.15%EV -8.46%E -3.55%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-15 11:49
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.02%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.15%EV -8.46%E -3.55%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-15 11:49
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.02%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.15%EV -8.46%E -3.55%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-15 11:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.02%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.15%EV -8.46%E -3.55%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-15 11:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.02%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.15%EV -8.46%E -3.55%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-15 11:50
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.02%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.15%EV -8.46%E -3.55%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-15 11:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.02%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.15%EV -8.46%E -3.55%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-15 11:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.02%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.15%EV -8.46%E -3.55%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-15 11:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.25%EV -8.84%E -3.73%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-16 06:09
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -9.61%E -4.09%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-16 14:44
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.71%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.28%EV -9.61%E -4.09%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -10.67%E -3.44%K -5.08%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-15 11:50
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.45%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.66%EV -13.46%E -5.98%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -7.79%E -2.44%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-16 14:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.45%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.66%EV -13.46%E -5.98%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -7.79%E -2.44%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-16 14:50
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.45%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.66%EV -13.46%E -5.98%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -7.79%E -2.44%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-16 14:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.45%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.66%EV -13.46%E -5.98%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -7.79%E -2.44%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-16 14:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.45%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.66%EV -13.46%E -5.98%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -7.79%E -2.44%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-16 14:34
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -11.53%E -5.02%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -13.56%E -4.52%K -6.78%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-16 14:54
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.94%EV -13.46%E -5.98%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -13.56%E -4.52%K -6.78%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-16 14:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 32.69%EV -10.67%E -3.91%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.53%E -5.02%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.51%EV -9.81%E -3.13%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-16 14:33
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -11.65%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -5.77%E -2.35%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 13:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -11.65%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -9.61%E -4.09%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-16 06:04
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.41%EV -11.65%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.39%EV -9.61%E -4.09%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -7.79%E -2.44%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-16 06:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.80%EV -11.65%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.17%EV -10.77%E -4.64%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.03%EV -12.12%E -3.97%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 11:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.80%EV -11.65%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.17%EV -10.77%E -4.64%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.03%EV -12.12%E -3.97%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 11:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.80%EV -11.65%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.17%EV -10.77%E -4.64%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.03%EV -12.12%E -3.97%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 11:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.80%EV -11.65%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.17%EV -10.77%E -4.64%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.03%EV -12.12%E -3.97%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 11:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.55%EV -13.29%E -5.01%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.66%EV -11.53%E -5.02%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -7.79%E -2.44%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-16 06:04
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.52%EV -14.27%E -5.45%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.03%EV -13.46%E -5.98%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.45%EV -7.79%E -2.44%K -3.54%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-16 14:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.38%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.58%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.05%1.3%2026-08-16 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.38%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.58%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.05%1.3%2026-08-16 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.38%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.58%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.05%1.3%2026-08-16 14:55
Smarkets3.05I 32.79%NM 32.14%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.60%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.26%2.0%2026-08-16 14:55