Language:English
Austria Wien v Sturm Graz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Austria Wien (Local)
Prediction 29.46%3.39fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -0.844%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.36%29.42%29.51%30.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.133.103.3034.48%31.98%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sturm Graz (Visit)
Prediction 43.95%2.28fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.693%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.74%44.02%43.90%45.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.072.082.2450.76%48.32%48.08%44.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.59%3.76fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.436%
Kelly -0.598%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.36%26.56%26.59%27.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.453.453.7030.77%28.97%28.99%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Austria Wien (Local): 29.46%; Sturm Graz (Visit): 43.95%; Draw: 26.59%. For Sturm Graz (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.24, with an expected value of -1.55%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -2.78%E -0.844%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.08%EV -5.95%E -2.78%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -8.26%E -2.39%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-10 17:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -2.78%E -0.844%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.08%EV -5.95%E -2.78%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -8.26%E -2.39%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-10 17:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -2.78%E -0.844%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -9.90%E -4.83%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -4.27%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-10 16:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.51%EV -3.37%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.22%EV -1.55%E -0.693%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.27%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-10 17:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -4.26%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -9.90%E -4.83%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -1.61%E -0.436%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-10 17:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.26%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -8.58%E -4.13%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.26%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -8.58%E -4.13%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.26%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -8.58%E -4.13%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.26%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -8.58%E -4.13%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.26%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -8.58%E -4.13%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.26%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -8.58%E -4.13%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.26%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -8.58%E -4.13%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.26%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -8.58%E -4.13%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -4.26%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -9.90%E -4.83%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -4.27%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-10 16:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.11%EV -5.44%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 43.88%EV -6.39%E -3.00%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.01%EV -8.00%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.49%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 17:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -8.58%E -4.13%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -4.27%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-10 17:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.14%EV -3.31%E -1.50%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.73%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 17:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -9.90%E -4.83%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-10 17:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -5.51%E -2.56%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-10 17:24 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-10 17:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -12.10%E -6.05%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-10 16:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.53%EV -11.22%E -5.56%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -12.10%E -6.05%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-10 16:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -12.10%E -6.05%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-10 16:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -12.10%E -6.05%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-10 16:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -12.10%E -6.05%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-10 16:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -10.15%E -3.33%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -5.51%E -2.56%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-10 17:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -10.15%E -3.33%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -5.51%E -2.56%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-10 17:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.78%EV -10.15%E -3.33%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.88%EV -9.02%E -4.36%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.33%EV -8.26%E -2.39%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-10 17:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.98%EV -10.15%E -3.33%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.64%EV -12.98%E -6.56%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.38%EV -10.92%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.98%EV -10.15%E -3.33%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.64%EV -12.98%E -6.56%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.38%EV -10.92%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.91%EV -10.15%E -3.33%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 44.76%EV -13.42%E -6.81%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.32%EV -10.92%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.23%EV -9.90%E -4.83%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.74%EV -6.83%E -3.22%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -10.92%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-10 17:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-10 17:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -12.10%E -6.05%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-10 16:43 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.32%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.42%EV -12.98%E -6.56%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.26%EV -10.92%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 29.41%EV -12.21%E -4.10%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.27%EV -12.98%E -6.56%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 26.32%EV -11.45%E -3.44%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-10-10 17:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.14%EV -13.09%E -4.44%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.46%EV -12.10%E -6.05%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.11%EV -14.57%E -5.02%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 43.02%EV -10.78%E -5.31%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.87%EV -13.58%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-10-10 17:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.92%EV -14.57%E -5.02%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.38%EV -12.10%E -6.05%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.70%EV -13.58%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-10-10 17:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.76% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-10-10 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.56% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.61% | 1.6% | 2026-10-10 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.56% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.61% | 1.6% | 2026-10-10 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.56% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.61% | 1.6% | 2026-10-10 17:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.18% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.04% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.78% | 2.3% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |