Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Western Sydney Wanderers v Sydney FC

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 09:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Western Sydney Wanderers (Local)

Prediction 36.38%2.75fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.661%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.21%36.45%36.35%37.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.552.552.7041.67%39.18%39.22%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney FC (Visit)

Prediction 37.94%2.64fair odd
EV -1.36%
Edge -0.522%
Kelly -0.848%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.86%37.88%37.90%38.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.472.6043.48%40.80%40.49%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.68%3.89fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.426%
Kelly -0.576%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.50%25.67%25.75%27.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.593.603.8332.26%27.83%27.78%26.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Western Sydney Wanderers (Local): 36.38%; Sydney FC (Visit): 37.94%; Draw: 25.68%. For Sydney FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.60, with an expected value of -1.36%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.83%EV -1.78%E -0.661%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.85%EV -5.53%E -2.22%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.32%EV -1.89%E -0.494%K -0.669%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-11 09:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45%EV -3.60%E -1.36%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.33%EV -4.39%E -1.74%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.22%EV -1.63%E -0.426%K -0.576%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 09:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45%EV -3.60%E -1.36%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.33%EV -4.39%E -1.74%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.22%EV -1.63%E -0.426%K -0.576%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 09:20
Everygame🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -3.60%E -1.36%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -8.94%E -3.73%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 09:19
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.28%EV -4.69%E -1.79%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02%EV -5.15%E -2.06%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -4.97%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 09:15
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.45%EV -4.69%E -1.79%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.38%EV -8.19%E -3.38%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -8.82%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 09:00
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.45%EV -4.69%E -1.79%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.38%EV -8.19%E -3.38%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -8.82%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 09:10
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -5.42%E -2.09%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.92%EV -5.15%E -2.06%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -4.97%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 09:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -5.42%E -2.09%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.11%EV -5.91%E -2.38%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -4.97%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-11 09:10
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.42%E -2.09%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -5.15%E -2.06%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 08:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.42%E -2.09%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -5.15%E -2.06%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 08:45
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.42%E -2.09%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -5.15%E -2.06%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 09:00
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.05%EV -5.42%E -2.09%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -7.05%E -2.88%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -6.25%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 09:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.42%E -2.09%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.05%E -2.88%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 09:14
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.42%E -2.09%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.05%E -2.88%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 09:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.42%E -2.09%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.05%E -2.88%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 09:14
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.42%E -2.09%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.05%E -2.88%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 09:14
BetUS🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -5.42%E -2.09%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -8.94%E -3.73%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 09:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.31%EV -6.51%E -2.53%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.78%EV -6.29%E -2.55%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 09:19
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.58%EV -7.24%E -2.84%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.86%EV -1.36%E -0.522%K -0.848%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.56%EV -3.69%E -0.983%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 09:10
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -7.24%E -2.84%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -5.15%E -2.06%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -4.97%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 09:10
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.24%E -2.84%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -5.15%E -2.06%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 09:05
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -7.24%E -2.84%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.44%EV -5.91%E -2.38%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -8.82%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 08:44
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -7.24%E -2.84%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.44%EV -5.91%E -2.38%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -8.82%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 08:44
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -7.24%E -2.84%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.44%EV -5.91%E -2.38%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -8.82%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 08:45
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -7.24%E -2.84%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.44%EV -5.91%E -2.38%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -8.82%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 08:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -7.24%E -2.84%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.44%EV -5.91%E -2.38%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -8.82%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 08:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.24%E -2.84%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -7.05%E -2.88%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 09:10
GTbets🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.58%EV -8.70%E -3.46%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.99%EV -3.25%E -1.28%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.43%EV -4.71%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 00:09
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.06%E -3.62%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.15%E -2.06%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 09:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.06%E -3.62%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.15%E -2.06%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 00:35
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.06%E -3.62%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.15%E -2.06%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 00:39
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -9.06%E -3.62%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -7.05%E -2.88%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 09:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%EV -9.06%E -3.62%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.76%EV -10.08%E -4.25%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -3.69%E -0.983%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 04:45
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.06%E -3.62%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -8.94%E -3.73%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-11 09:10
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.06%E -3.62%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -8.94%E -3.73%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-11 09:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -9.06%E -3.62%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -12.74%E -5.54%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-11 09:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.33%EV -9.79%E -3.95%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -8.94%E -3.73%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -11.39%E -3.30%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-11 08:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.33%EV -9.79%E -3.95%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -8.94%E -3.73%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -11.39%E -3.30%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-11 08:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.85%EV -10.88%E -4.44%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.42%EV -10.84%E -4.61%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.73%EV -6.25%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-11 09:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.64%EV -12.70%E -5.29%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.23%EV -12.74%E -5.54%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-11 09:09
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.53%EV -12.70%E -5.29%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.30%EV -10.84%E -4.61%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.17%EV -13.96%E -4.17%K -5.94%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-11 08:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.49%EV -12.70%E -5.29%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.03%EV -12.74%E -5.54%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.48%EV -20.38%E -6.57%K -9.70%G +0.000%17.4%2026-04-11 04:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%0.6%2026-04-11 09:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%0.6%2026-04-11 09:20
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%0.6%2026-04-11 09:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.17%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41%0.9%2026-04-11 09:20
Smarkets2.66I 37.59%NM 36.63%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.06%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.31%2.6%2026-04-11 09:20