Language:English
Sydney FC v Newcastle Jets FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sydney FC (Local)
Prediction 40.44%2.47fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.39
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.13%40.42%40.54%41.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.292.302.3946.51%43.76%43.48%41.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Newcastle Jets FC (Visit)
Prediction 33.49%2.99fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -0.870%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.37%33.50%33.43%34.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.752.752.9139.22%36.39%36.36%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.07%3.84fair odd
EV +1.66%
Edge +0.425%
Kelly +0.571%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.39%26.08%26.02%27.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.643.653.9032.26%27.50%27.40%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney FC (Local): 40.44%; Newcastle Jets FC (Visit): 33.49%; Draw: 26.07%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.66%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.16%EV -5.78%E -2.48%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.25%EV -6.22%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.59%EV +1.66%E +0.425%K +0.571%G +0.009% | 4.3% | 2026-05-08 22:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.56%E -3.54%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV +0.353%E +0.092%K +0.124%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-08 22:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.56%E -3.54%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV +0.353%E +0.092%K +0.124%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-08 22:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.91%EV -7.80%E -3.42%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -9.56%E -3.54%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -0.950%E -0.250%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 22:03 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.91%EV -7.80%E -3.42%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -9.56%E -3.54%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -0.950%E -0.250%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 22:03 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.91%EV -7.80%E -3.42%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -9.56%E -3.54%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -0.950%E -0.250%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 22:03 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.91%EV -7.80%E -3.42%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -9.56%E -3.54%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -0.950%E -0.250%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 22:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.91%EV -7.80%E -3.42%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -9.56%E -3.54%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -0.950%E -0.250%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 22:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.91%EV -7.80%E -3.42%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -9.56%E -3.54%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -0.950%E -0.250%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 22:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.91%EV -7.80%E -3.42%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -9.56%E -3.54%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -0.950%E -0.250%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 22:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.91%EV -7.80%E -3.42%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -9.56%E -3.54%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -0.950%E -0.250%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 22:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.55%EV -4.97%E -2.11%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -6.22%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -2.25%E -0.601%K -0.819%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -6.22%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -2.25%E -0.601%K -0.819%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -2.25%E -0.601%K -0.819%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-09 01:23 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -9.01%E -4.00%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -2.25%E -0.601%K -0.819%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-03 21:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.79%EV -4.16%E -1.75%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.22%EV -2.53%E -0.870%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.99%EV -3.04%E -0.816%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-08 22:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.79%EV -4.16%E -1.75%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.22%EV -2.53%E -0.870%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.99%EV -3.04%E -0.816%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-08 22:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.48%EV -3.35%E -1.40%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.36%EV -2.87%E -0.988%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.15%EV -3.56%E -0.961%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-08 22:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -6.22%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -3.56%E -0.961%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-08 12:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -6.22%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -3.56%E -0.961%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-04 08:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -6.22%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -3.56%E -0.961%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-08 12:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -6.22%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -3.56%E -0.961%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-08 12:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.57%EV -5.37%E -2.30%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.43%EV -4.88%E -1.72%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.86%E -1.33%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 21:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.27%EV -4.97%E -2.11%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.80%EV -6.22%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -4.86%E -1.33%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 22:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -11.03%E -5.01%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -11.24%E -4.24%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -4.86%E -1.33%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-08 14:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.83%EV -11.03%E -5.01%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.55%EV -12.91%E -4.97%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.61%EV -4.86%E -1.33%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-08 22:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.83%EV -11.03%E -5.01%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.55%EV -12.91%E -4.97%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.61%EV -4.86%E -1.33%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-08 22:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.58%EV -6.18%E -2.66%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.27%EV -5.21%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.16%E -1.71%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 01:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.58%EV -6.18%E -2.66%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.27%EV -5.21%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.16%E -1.71%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.22%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.16%E -1.71%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-06 09:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.16%E -1.71%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 08:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.16%E -1.71%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-08 14:04 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -9.01%E -4.00%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -6.16%E -1.71%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-07 21:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.68%EV -9.01%E -4.00%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -9.56%E -3.54%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -6.16%E -1.71%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.98%EV -13.05%E -6.07%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.55%EV -14.59%E -5.72%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.47%EV -6.16%E -1.71%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-08 22:03 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.53%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -6.22%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.18%EV -7.21%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-08 15:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV -4.97%E -2.11%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.55%EV -6.22%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -7.47%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -11.03%E -5.01%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.47%EV -9.56%E -3.54%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -7.47%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-08 21:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -2.87%E -0.988%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -8.77%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.96%EV -13.05%E -6.07%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.87%EV -12.91%E -4.97%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -8.77%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-08 14:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.08%EV -6.18%E -2.66%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.97%EV -5.55%E -1.97%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -10.07%E -2.92%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.08%EV -6.18%E -2.66%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.97%EV -5.55%E -1.97%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -10.07%E -2.92%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.38%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-08 14:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.38%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-08 14:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.38%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-08 14:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.38%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-08 14:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 40.13%EV -12.25%E -5.64%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.49%EV -12.91%E -4.97%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.39%EV -13.98%E -4.24%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-05-08 15:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.13%EV -11.03%E -5.01%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.11%EV -12.91%E -4.97%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.77%EV -19.20%E -6.19%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.40% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.12% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48% | 0.6% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.40% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.12% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48% | 0.6% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.40% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.12% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48% | 0.6% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.40% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.12% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48% | 0.6% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.62% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.19% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.19% | 1.8% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.19% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.35% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46% | 2.0% | 2026-05-09 00:04 |