Language:English
Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sydney FC (Local)
Prediction 38.15%2.62fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.03%38.15%38.15%39.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.272.422.452.5344.05%41.25%40.90%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Melbourne Victory (Visit)
Prediction 36.18%2.76fair odd
EV -0.515%
Edge -0.187%
Kelly -0.294%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.67%36.12%36.19%37.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.592.602.7541.67%38.65%38.46%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.68%3.89fair odd
EV -0.882%
Edge -0.229%
Kelly -0.308%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.86
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.50%25.73%25.66%27.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.613.603.8632.26%27.72%27.78%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney FC (Local): 38.15%; Melbourne Victory (Visit): 36.18%; Draw: 25.68%. For Melbourne Victory (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -0.515%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.18%EV -3.49%E -1.38%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.59%EV -4.49%E -1.70%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.22%EV -1.65%E -0.431%K -0.584%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.18%EV -3.49%E -1.38%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.59%EV -4.49%E -1.70%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.22%EV -1.65%E -0.431%K -0.584%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.41%EV -3.87%E -1.54%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.52%EV -4.13%E -1.56%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 25.07%EV -0.882%E -0.229%K -0.308%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-07 08:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02%EV -4.64%E -1.85%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.28%EV -5.22%E -1.99%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -4.99%E -1.35%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -4.64%E -1.85%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.42%EV -6.30%E -2.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.84%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 08:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.64%E -1.85%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 07:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.64%E -1.85%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.64%E -1.85%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.64%E -1.85%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.64%E -1.85%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -4.99%E -1.35%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 37.74%EV -5.02%E -2.02%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.15%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.27%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.63%EV -7.03%E -2.73%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -3.71%E -0.989%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 07:46 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.03%EV -6.54%E -2.67%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.77%EV -0.515%E -0.187%K -0.294%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.20%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 05:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.42%EV -6.54%E -2.67%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.48%EV -6.66%E -2.58%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -3.71%E -0.989%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 07:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.54%E -2.67%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -4.13%E -1.56%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.54%E -2.67%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -4.13%E -1.56%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -6.54%E -2.67%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -6.54%E -2.67%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 05:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.99%EV -6.54%E -2.67%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.50%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-07 07:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.54%E -2.67%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.22%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -3.71%E -0.989%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 08:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -6.54%E -2.67%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.54%E -2.67%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-07 04:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.54%E -2.67%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-07 04:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.54%E -2.67%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-07 04:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.54%E -2.67%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-07 04:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.22%EV -6.93%E -2.84%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 36.43%EV -7.39%E -2.89%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.34%EV -5.50%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.36%EV -7.31%E -3.01%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.78%EV -0.515%E -0.187%K -0.294%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -4.99%E -1.35%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-07 07:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV -7.69%E -3.18%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.19%EV -6.66%E -2.58%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -4.99%E -1.35%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 07:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV -7.69%E -3.18%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.19%EV -6.66%E -2.58%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -4.99%E -1.35%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.27%EV -8.45%E -3.52%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -2.32%E -0.861%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-07 08:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.27%EV -8.45%E -3.52%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -2.32%E -0.861%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-07 08:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -8.45%E -3.52%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -3.71%E -0.989%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -8.45%E -3.52%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.99%E -1.35%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-07 07:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -8.45%E -3.52%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-07 06:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -8.45%E -3.52%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -10.13%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -9.21%E -3.87%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -2.32%E -0.861%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -9.21%E -3.87%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -2.32%E -0.861%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -9.21%E -3.87%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -4.13%E -1.56%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 08:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.07%EV -9.21%E -3.87%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -4.13%E -1.56%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 08:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.07%EV -9.21%E -3.87%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -4.13%E -1.56%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 08:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.07%EV -9.21%E -3.87%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -4.13%E -1.56%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 08:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.07%EV -9.21%E -3.87%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -4.13%E -1.56%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 08:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.07%EV -9.21%E -3.87%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -4.13%E -1.56%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 08:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 38.76%EV -9.60%E -4.05%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -3.71%E -0.989%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 08:05 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.15%EV -10.36%E -4.41%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.86%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.99%EV -11.41%E -3.31%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-03-07 06:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -12.27%E -5.33%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.25%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.68%EV -10.13%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-07 08:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -12.27%E -5.33%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.25%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.68%EV -10.13%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-07 08:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.10%EV -12.27%E -5.33%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.51%EV -13.18%E -5.49%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.40%EV -11.41%E -3.31%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-03-07 06:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.03%EV -12.27%E -5.33%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 35.49%EV -13.18%E -5.49%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.48%EV -20.40%E -6.58%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 17.4% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 38.38%EV -13.41%E -5.91%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 36.00%EV -12.45%E -5.15%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.62%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-03-07 07:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.54% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.29% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17% | 0.6% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.44% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.46% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11% | 0.8% | 2026-03-07 08:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.44% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.46% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11% | 0.8% | 2026-03-07 08:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.44% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.46% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11% | 0.8% | 2026-03-07 08:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.52% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.52% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.96% | 1.4% | 2026-03-07 08:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.26% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49% | 2.1% | 2026-03-07 08:00 |