La escuela de los momios

Macarthur FC v Western Sydney Wanderers

Inicio: 2026-02-28 08:35 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Macarthur FC (Local)

Predicción 38.44%2.60momio equitativo
EV -1.98%
Ventaja -0.778%
Kelly -1.28%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.44%38.46%38.48%40.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.272.432.452.5544.05%41.19%40.90%39.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Western Sydney Wanderers (Visitante)

Predicción 35.81%2.79momio equitativo
EV -2.96%
Ventaja -1.09%
Kelly -1.73%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.71

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.20%35.83%35.84%36.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.422.602.602.7141.32%38.42%38.46%36.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.75%3.88momio equitativo
EV -0.848%
Ventaja -0.220%
Kelly -0.297%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.91%25.70%25.68%26.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.353.593.603.8529.85%27.86%27.78%25.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.48%EV -1.98%E -0.778%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.34%EV -5.82%E -2.21%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.18%EV -6.00%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-28 07:54
BetOnline.ag2.53I 39.53%NM 38.16%EV -2.75%E -1.09%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.43%EV -5.11%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.41%EV -2.14%E -0.562%K -0.763%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-28 08:14
LowVig.ag2.53I 39.53%NM 38.16%EV -2.75%E -1.09%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.43%EV -5.11%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.41%EV -2.14%E -0.562%K -0.763%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-28 08:14
Coolbet2.51I 39.84%NM 38.21%EV -3.52%E -1.40%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.88%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.91%EV -0.848%E -0.220%K -0.297%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-28 08:23
LeoVegas (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -3.91%E -1.56%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.29%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 07:54
LeoVegas2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -3.91%E -1.56%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.29%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 07:54
Pinnacle2.48I 40.32%NM 39.07%EV -4.67%E -1.88%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.76%EV -2.96%E -1.09%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.17%EV -0.848%E -0.220%K -0.297%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-28 08:29
Unibet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.70%EV -4.67%E -1.88%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -8.57%E -2.42%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 07:54
Unibet (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 37.44%EV -4.67%E -1.88%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -8.57%E -2.42%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 07:54
Grosvenor2.48I 40.32%NM 37.44%EV -4.67%E -1.88%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -8.57%E -2.42%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 07:54
TABtouch2.48I 40.32%NM 37.44%EV -4.67%E -1.88%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -8.57%E -2.42%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 07:54
Unibet (NL)2.48I 40.32%NM 37.44%EV -4.67%E -1.88%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -8.57%E -2.42%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 07:54
Casumo2.48I 40.32%NM 37.44%EV -4.67%E -1.88%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -8.57%E -2.42%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 07:54
Svenska Spel2.48I 40.32%NM 37.44%EV -4.67%E -1.88%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -8.57%E -2.42%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 07:54
betPARX2.48I 40.32%NM 37.44%EV -4.67%E -1.88%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -8.57%E -2.42%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 07:54
Codere (IT)2.47I 40.49%NM 38.19%EV -5.06%E -2.05%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.60%EV -5.11%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -7.29%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 03:49
GTbets2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -5.44%E -2.21%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.60%EV -5.11%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.06%EV -6.77%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 08:29
DraftKings2.45I 40.82%NM 38.66%EV -5.83%E -2.38%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.74%EV -5.11%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.71%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 08:14
Ladbrokes (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -5.83%E -2.38%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -3.32%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -7.29%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 07:19
Coral2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -5.83%E -2.38%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -3.32%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -7.29%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 07:19
PointsBet (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -5.83%E -2.38%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -5.11%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.29%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 02:29
Fanatics2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -5.83%E -2.38%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -5.11%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.29%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 02:39
Unibet (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.83%E -2.38%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -7.29%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 03:49
Bet Right2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -5.83%E -2.38%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -9.86%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 00:19
BetUS2.44I 40.98%NM 38.49%EV -6.21%E -2.55%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.38%EV -4.71%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-28 08:29
Marathon Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 38.38%EV -6.60%E -2.71%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.01%EV -7.26%E -2.80%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.62%EV -6.26%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 08:14
NordicBet2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV -6.98%E -2.88%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.19%EV -7.61%E -2.95%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -4.71%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 08:29
Betsson2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV -6.98%E -2.88%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.19%EV -7.61%E -2.95%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -4.71%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 08:30
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -7.75%E -3.23%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -3.32%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -4.71%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 03:24
TAB2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -7.75%E -3.23%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -3.32%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -7.29%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-28 08:29
BetMGM2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.75%E -3.23%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.11%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.29%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 07:19
Everygame2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -7.75%E -3.23%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -6.00%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 08:14
Neds2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -7.75%E -3.23%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -5.11%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -9.86%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 07:19
Ladbrokes (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -7.75%E -3.23%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -5.11%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -9.86%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 07:19
LiveScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -7.75%E -3.23%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.33%EV -11.20%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -11.15%E -3.23%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-28 07:54
Virgin Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -7.75%E -3.23%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.33%EV -11.20%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -11.15%E -3.23%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-28 07:54
Bovada2.39I 41.84%NM 39.30%EV -8.13%E -3.40%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.31%EV -4.75%E -1.79%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -4.71%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-28 08:27
888sport2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -8.52%E -3.58%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.09%EV -6.18%E -2.36%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -9.86%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 08:29
William Hill2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -8.52%E -3.58%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.09%EV -6.18%E -2.36%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -9.86%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 08:29
888sport (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -8.52%E -3.58%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.09%EV -6.18%E -2.36%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -9.86%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 08:29
Mr Green (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -8.52%E -3.58%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.09%EV -6.18%E -2.36%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -9.86%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 08:29
Betr (AU)2.37I 42.19%NM 38.73%EV -8.90%E -3.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -6.18%E -2.36%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.86%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 00:15
Winamax (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.57%EV -9.67%E -4.12%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.25%EV -10.48%E -4.19%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -7.29%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-28 03:49
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -11.59%E -5.04%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -3.32%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -7.29%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-28 08:14
PMU (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -11.59%E -5.04%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -9.86%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-28 08:14
Parions Sport (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -11.59%E -5.04%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -10.48%E -4.19%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -12.44%E -3.66%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-28 08:14
Winamax (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.38%EV -11.59%E -5.04%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.03%EV -12.27%E -5.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.59%EV -11.15%E -3.23%K -4.55%G +0.000%13.3%2026-02-28 03:49
NetBet (FR)2.27I 44.05%NM 38.23%EV -12.75%E -5.62%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 35.86%EV -13.34%E -5.51%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.91%EV -13.72%E -4.10%K -5.84%G +0.000%15.2%2026-02-28 08:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.80%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.73%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%0.7%2026-02-28 08:29
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.46%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.46%0.7%2026-02-28 08:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.46%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.46%0.7%2026-02-28 08:24
Smarkets2.52I 39.68%NM 38.85%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.73%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.43%2.2%2026-02-28 08:29