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Brisbane Roar v Wellington Phoenix FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Brisbane Roar (Local)
Prediction 44.54%2.25fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.917%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.83%44.58%44.53%48.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.052.102.2054.05%48.67%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit)
Prediction 28.43%3.52fair odd
EV +5.18%
Edge +1.40%
Kelly +1.92%
Growth +0.099%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.33%28.35%28.45%30.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.363.303.7033.33%29.80%30.30%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.04%3.70fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.362%
Kelly -0.499%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.79%27.06%27.02%27.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.493.503.6530.30%28.69%28.57%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Roar (Local): 44.54%; Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit): 28.43%; Draw: 27.04%. For Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.18%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.28%EV -10.03%E -4.97%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.81%EV +5.18%E +1.40%K +1.92%G +0.099% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.90%EV -4.02%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 19:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.77%EV -14.04%E -7.28%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV +5.18%E +1.40%K +1.92%G +0.099% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -1.32%E -0.362%K -0.499%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.77%EV -14.04%E -7.28%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV +5.18%E +1.40%K +1.92%G +0.099% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -1.32%E -0.362%K -0.499%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -14.04%E -7.28%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV +3.76%E +1.03%K +1.42%G +0.053% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -2.67%E -0.742%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 03:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -14.49%E -7.55%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV +3.76%E +1.03%K +1.42%G +0.053% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -2.67%E -0.742%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -14.49%E -7.55%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV +3.76%E +1.03%K +1.42%G +0.053% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -2.67%E -0.742%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -14.49%E -7.55%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV +3.76%E +1.03%K +1.42%G +0.053% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -2.67%E -0.742%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -14.49%E -7.55%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV +3.76%E +1.03%K +1.42%G +0.053% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -2.67%E -0.742%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -14.49%E -7.55%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV +3.76%E +1.03%K +1.42%G +0.053% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -2.67%E -0.742%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -17.61%E -9.52%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV +0.918%E +0.259%K +0.360%G +0.003% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -17.61%E -9.52%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV +0.918%E +0.259%K +0.360%G +0.003% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.94%EV -4.25%E -1.97%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.92%EV -1.64%E -0.474%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.14%EV -3.75%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.94%EV -4.25%E -1.97%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.00%EV -1.92%E -0.558%K -0.786%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.06%EV -3.48%E -0.976%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.94%EV -4.25%E -1.97%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.00%EV -1.92%E -0.558%K -0.786%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.06%EV -3.48%E -0.976%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -8.70%E -4.24%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.35%E -0.984%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.91%EV -6.47%E -3.08%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -4.77%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -6.47%E -3.08%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -4.77%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 03:42 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -6.47%E -3.08%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -4.77%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -6.47%E -3.08%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.77%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.25%E -1.97%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.60%EV -6.03%E -2.86%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.47%E -3.08%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 03:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.13%EV -5.58%E -2.63%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -8.70%E -4.24%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.17%EV -6.03%E -2.86%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.42%EV -6.76%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -5.58%E -2.63%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 03:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -5.58%E -2.63%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 03:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -6.47%E -3.08%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -6.47%E -3.08%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -10.93%E -5.46%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.57%EV -6.47%E -3.08%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.07%EV -8.46%E -2.63%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -4.02%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -2.02%E -0.917%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -4.25%E -1.97%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.47%E -3.08%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.47%E -3.08%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.32%EV -10.93%E -5.46%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -10.45%E -3.32%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-21 03:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -4.25%E -1.97%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -11.87%E -3.83%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -4.25%E -1.97%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -11.87%E -3.83%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -4.25%E -1.97%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -11.87%E -3.83%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -4.25%E -1.97%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -11.87%E -3.83%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 03:35 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 44.79%EV -12.26%E -6.22%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -11.87%E -3.83%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.74%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.42%EV -11.82%E -5.97%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.32%EV -14.72%E -4.91%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.26%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.39% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74% | 1.1% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.22% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01% | 1.4% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.62% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.75% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63% | 1.5% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.62% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.75% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63% | 1.5% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.15% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.01% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84% | 3.5% | 2026-03-21 03:45 |