Language:English
Auckland FC v Melbourne City
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Auckland FC (Local)
Prediction 42.89%2.33fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.971%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.12%43.02%42.82%47.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.112.152.2852.91%47.45%46.51%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Melbourne City (Visit)
Prediction 28.76%3.48fair odd
EV +9.30%
Edge +2.45%
Kelly +3.32%
Growth +0.309%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.90%28.69%28.67%29.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.383.303.8033.90%29.56%30.30%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.35%3.53fair odd
EV -0.781%
Edge -0.223%
Kelly -0.312%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.07%28.28%28.51%29.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.303.303.5032.79%30.27%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Auckland FC (Local): 42.89%; Melbourne City (Visit): 28.76%; Draw: 28.35%. For Melbourne City (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.48. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.30%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.67%EV -14.22%E -7.11%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.09%EV +9.30%E +2.45%K +3.32%G +0.309% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.24%EV -0.781%E -0.223%K -0.312%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.83%EV -15.94%E -8.13%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +7.86%E +2.10%K +2.86%G +0.225% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -2.20%E -0.637%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.83%EV -15.94%E -8.13%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +7.86%E +2.10%K +2.86%G +0.225% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -2.20%E -0.637%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.64%EV -15.94%E -8.13%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV +7.86%E +2.10%K +2.86%G +0.225% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.73%EV -16.80%E -8.66%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV +6.42%E +1.74%K +2.38%G +0.153% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.73%EV -16.80%E -8.66%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV +6.42%E +1.74%K +2.38%G +0.153% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.73%EV -16.80%E -8.66%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV +6.42%E +1.74%K +2.38%G +0.153% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.73%EV -16.80%E -8.66%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV +6.42%E +1.74%K +2.38%G +0.153% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.73%EV -16.80%E -8.66%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV +6.42%E +1.74%K +2.38%G +0.153% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.73%EV -16.80%E -8.66%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV +6.42%E +1.74%K +2.38%G +0.153% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.73%EV -16.80%E -8.66%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV +6.42%E +1.74%K +2.38%G +0.153% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.67%EV -18.94%E -10.02%K -21.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV +3.55%E +0.985%K +1.36%G +0.048% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.67%EV -18.94%E -10.02%K -21.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV +3.55%E +0.985%K +1.36%G +0.048% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.28%EV -9.93%E -4.73%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -0.767%E -0.222%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -0.781%E -0.223%K -0.312%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 03:58 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.46%EV -2.21%E -0.971%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.73%EV -3.07%E -0.910%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.81%EV -4.75%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -2.21%E -0.971%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.79%EV -3.36%E -0.999%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.79%EV -4.75%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -2.21%E -0.971%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.79%EV -3.36%E -0.999%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.79%EV -4.75%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.45%EV -6.93%E -3.19%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.40%EV -4.51%E -1.36%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.03%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.15%EV -7.36%E -3.41%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.08%EV -4.51%E -1.36%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.77%EV -8.15%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -5.65%E -2.57%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -5.65%E -2.57%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.65%E -2.57%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.65%E -2.57%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 42.78%EV -6.07%E -2.77%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-28 03:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -6.50%E -2.98%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.65%E -2.57%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.29%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -12.12%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -12.12%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -12.12%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -12.12%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.12%EV -3.50%E -1.56%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.16%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.37%EV -6.93%E -3.19%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -5.65%E -2.57%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -5.65%E -2.57%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -5.65%E -2.57%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.65%E -2.57%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.79%E -3.62%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -5.03%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -6.50%E -2.98%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -6.50%E -2.98%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -5.65%E -2.57%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -9.93%E -4.73%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -10.70%E -3.40%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -12.08%E -5.89%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -10.83%E -3.49%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -9.29%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-02-28 03:58 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 43.58%EV -14.65%E -7.36%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.98%EV -10.83%E -3.49%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.44%EV -13.54%E -4.44%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-02-28 03:58 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -9.93%E -4.73%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -12.27%E -4.02%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -5.03%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.00%EV -12.08%E -5.89%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.88%EV -15.15%E -5.14%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.12%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.59% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.81% | 0.6% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.20% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80% | 0.6% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.24% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.99% | 1.4% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.24% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.99% | 1.4% | 2026-02-28 03:59 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.10% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.83% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.07% | 2.7% | 2026-02-28 04:00 |