The School of Odds
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Velez Sarsfield BA v Union Santa Fe

Kickoff: 2026-04-27 21:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)

Prediction 43.20%2.31fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -3.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.20%43.24%43.22%45.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.122.152.2151.02%47.17%46.51%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Santa Fe (Visit)

Prediction 26.17%3.82fair odd
EV +2.08%
Edge +0.533%
Kelly +0.716%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.26%26.16%26.13%27.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.523.503.9032.26%28.37%28.57%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.63%3.27fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.53%30.60%30.64%31.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.023.003.1535.71%33.17%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 43.20%; Union Santa Fe (Visit): 26.17%; Draw: 30.63%. For Union Santa Fe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.82. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.71%EV -10.58%E -5.11%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV +2.08%E +0.533%K +0.716%G +0.015%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -3.53%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 12:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.71%EV -10.58%E -5.11%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV +2.08%E +0.533%K +0.716%G +0.015%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -3.53%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 12:20
BetRivers🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.68%EV -11.01%E -5.34%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV +0.769%E +0.200%K +0.270%G +0.002%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -3.53%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 12:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.68%EV -13.60%E -6.80%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -1.85%E -0.493%K -0.672%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.96%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 12:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.68%EV -13.60%E -6.80%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -1.85%E -0.493%K -0.672%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.96%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 12:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.31%EV -4.96%E -2.25%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -3.16%E -0.853%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -5.67%E -1.84%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 20:04
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.31%EV -4.96%E -2.25%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -3.16%E -0.853%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -5.67%E -1.84%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 20:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.81%EV -15.33%E -7.82%K -15.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -3.16%E -0.853%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-23 12:20
Pinnacle🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.13%EV -4.53%E -2.05%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.83%EV -3.42%E -0.927%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.05%EV -5.98%E -1.95%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 07:20
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -4.96%E -2.25%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -4.47%E -1.22%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 23:59
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -4.96%E -2.25%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -4.47%E -1.22%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 23:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 11:20
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 06:25
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.15%EV -6.26%E -2.88%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.15%EV -6.30%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 18:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.05%EV -6.30%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 19:14
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -7.08%E -2.00%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-21 11:25
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 11:19
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 19:01
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 11:20
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-21 11:19
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 23:59
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -9.65%E -3.27%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 12:45
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-21 06:15
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -11.01%E -3.24%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 18:59
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.96%E -2.25%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -11.01%E -3.24%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 18:05
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.96%E -2.25%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -11.01%E -3.24%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 18:03
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.01%E -3.24%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-22 23:10
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.01%E -3.24%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 14:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.50%EV -13.60%E -6.80%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.97%EV -12.32%E -3.68%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.53%EV -12.72%E -4.46%K -6.87%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-23 19:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 43.26%EV -12.30%E -6.06%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.45%EV -13.10%E -3.95%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.28%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-22 08:00
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.63%E -4.13%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-22 21:58
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -11.44%E -5.58%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -13.63%E -4.13%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-21 21:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -11.44%E -5.58%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -14.94%E -4.60%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-22 07:20
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.20%EV -9.28%E -4.42%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -18.86%E -6.08%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -14.25%E -5.09%K -7.91%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-21 18:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 42.86%EV -14.46%E -7.30%K -14.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.37%EV -18.86%E -6.08%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.77%EV -12.72%E -4.46%K -6.87%G +0.000%17.9%2026-04-22 07:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 42.55%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.91%5.9%2026-04-23 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 42.55%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.91%5.9%2026-04-23 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 42.55%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.91%5.9%2026-04-23 21:50
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 42.98%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.58%7.7%2026-04-23 22:15
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 41.88%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%2.86I 34.97%NM 31.78%10.0%2026-04-24 03:40