L’École des cotes

Velez Sarsfield BA v Union Santa Fe

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-27 21:45 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

35 opérateurs (15 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)

Prévision 43.20%2.31cote équitable
EV -4.53%
Avantage -2.05%
Kelly -3.74%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.21

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
41.20%43.24%43.22%45.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.962.122.152.2151.02%47.17%46.51%45.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Union Santa Fe (Visiteur)

Prévision 26.17%3.82cote équitable
EV +2.08%
Avantage +0.533%
Kelly +0.716%
Croissance +0.015%

avec la cote maximale 3.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.26%26.16%26.13%27.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.523.503.9032.26%28.37%28.57%25.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 30.63%3.27cote équitable
EV -3.53%
Avantage -1.12%
Kelly -1.64%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.15

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.53%30.60%30.64%31.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.803.023.003.1535.71%33.17%33.33%31.75%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (35 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet2.07I 48.31%NM 45.71%EV -10.58%E -5.11%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV +2.08%E +0.533%K +0.716%G +0.015%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -3.53%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 12:20
Unibet (SE)2.07I 48.31%NM 45.71%EV -10.58%E -5.11%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV +2.08%E +0.533%K +0.716%G +0.015%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -3.53%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 12:20
BetRivers2.06I 48.54%NM 45.68%EV -11.01%E -5.34%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV +0.769%E +0.200%K +0.270%G +0.002%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -3.53%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 12:19
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.68%EV -13.60%E -6.80%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -1.85%E -0.493%K -0.672%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.96%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 12:19
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.68%EV -13.60%E -6.80%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -1.85%E -0.493%K -0.672%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.96%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 12:19
BetOnline.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.31%EV -4.96%E -2.25%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -3.16%E -0.853%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -5.67%E -1.84%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 20:04
LowVig.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.31%EV -4.96%E -2.25%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -3.16%E -0.853%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -5.67%E -1.84%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 20:04
LeoVegas (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 45.81%EV -15.33%E -7.82%K -15.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -3.16%E -0.853%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-23 12:20
Pinnacle2.21I 45.25%NM 43.13%EV -4.53%E -2.05%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.83%EV -3.42%E -0.927%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.05%EV -5.98%E -1.95%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 07:20
NordicBet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -4.96%E -2.25%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -4.47%E -1.22%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 23:59
Betsson2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -4.96%E -2.25%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -4.47%E -1.22%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 23:59
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 11:20
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 06:25
1xBet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.15%EV -6.26%E -2.88%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.15%EV -6.30%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 18:15
Marathon Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.05%EV -6.30%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 19:14
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -7.08%E -2.00%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-21 11:25
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 11:19
Bovada2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 19:01
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 11:20
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-21 11:19
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 23:59
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -9.65%E -3.27%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 12:45
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-21 06:15
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -11.01%E -3.24%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 18:59
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.96%E -2.25%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -11.01%E -3.24%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 18:05
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.96%E -2.25%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -11.01%E -3.24%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 18:03
betfred_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.01%E -3.24%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-22 23:10
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.01%E -3.24%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 14:40
NetBet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.50%EV -13.60%E -6.80%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.97%EV -12.32%E -3.68%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.53%EV -12.72%E -4.46%K -6.87%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-23 19:04
Betclic (FR)2.03I 49.26%NM 43.26%EV -12.30%E -6.06%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.45%EV -13.10%E -3.95%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.28%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-22 08:00
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.63%E -4.13%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-22 21:58
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -11.44%E -5.58%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -13.63%E -4.13%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-21 21:45
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -11.44%E -5.58%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -14.94%E -4.60%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-22 07:20
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 41.20%EV -9.28%E -4.42%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -18.86%E -6.08%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -14.25%E -5.09%K -7.91%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-21 18:05
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 42.86%EV -14.46%E -7.30%K -14.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.37%EV -18.86%E -6.08%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.77%EV -12.72%E -4.46%K -6.87%G +0.000%17.9%2026-04-22 07:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.22I 45.05%NM 42.55%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.91%5.9%2026-04-23 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.22I 45.05%NM 42.55%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.91%5.9%2026-04-23 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.22I 45.05%NM 42.55%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.91%5.9%2026-04-23 21:50
Smarkets2.16I 46.30%NM 42.98%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.58%7.7%2026-04-23 22:15
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 41.88%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%2.86I 34.97%NM 31.78%10.0%2026-04-24 03:40