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Velez Sarsfield BA v Defensa y Justicia

2026-08-17 22:15 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)

Prediction 54.14%1.85fair odd
EV -4.71%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -6.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.87%54.14%54.14%54.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.711.721.7659.88%58.37%58.14%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Defensa y Justicia (Visit)

Prediction 17.80%5.62fair odd
EV -5.82%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.80%17.80%17.80%19.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.075.205.2922.22%19.71%19.23%18.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.05%3.56fair odd
EV -5.17%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.81%28.05%28.05%28.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.273.333.3833.33%30.57%30.08%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 54.14%; Defensa y Justicia (Visit): 17.80%; Draw: 28.05%. For Velez Sarsfield BA (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.85. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.76, with an expected value of -4.71%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.76I 56.82%NM 53.95%EV -4.71%E -2.68%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.29I 18.90%NM 17.95%EV -5.82%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.09%EV -5.17%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 23:40
Bovada1.74I 57.47%NM 53.94%EV -5.79%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.05%EV -7.42%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -6.02%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-03 02:53
SportsBet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.17%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -6.53%E -1.24%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.98%EV -6.02%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-02 19:29
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 54.14%EV -7.42%E -4.34%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.80%EV -7.42%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.42%E -2.25%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 19:28
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 54.12%EV -9.58%E -5.74%K -14.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -10.98%E -2.20%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.82%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-02 19:30
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 51.87%EV -9.58%E -5.74%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.25%EV -19.88%E -4.42%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.88%EV -15.84%E -5.28%K -7.92%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-02 19:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55