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Velez Sarsfield BA v Defensa y Justicia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)
Prediction 47.00%2.13fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -3.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.93%47.04%46.97%48.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.961.982.0654.05%50.90%50.51%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Defensa y Justicia (Visit)
Prediction 23.98%4.17fair odd
EV +2.89%
Edge +0.674%
Kelly +0.879%
Growth +0.025%
assuming max odds 4.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.36%24.00%23.95%25.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.853.804.2927.78%26.01%26.32%23.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.01%3.45fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.35%28.96%29.07%29.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.193.203.3233.33%31.33%31.25%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 47.00%; Defensa y Justicia (Visit): 23.98%; Draw: 29.01%. For Defensa y Justicia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.29, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.95%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 4.29I 23.31%NM 22.36%EV +2.89%E +0.674%K +0.879%G +0.025% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.69%EV -6.28%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-17 22:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.36%EV -4.12%E -2.02%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.45%EV -1.19%E -0.288%K -0.380%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 29.19%EV -3.96%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.36%EV -4.12%E -2.02%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.45%EV -1.19%E -0.288%K -0.380%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 29.19%EV -3.96%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.36%EV -4.12%E -2.02%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.45%EV -1.19%E -0.288%K -0.380%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 29.19%EV -3.96%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.91%EV -3.18%E -1.54%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.98%EV -3.35%E -0.830%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 29.11%EV -3.67%E -1.11%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-17 22:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -4.06%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -4.25%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 22:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -12.11%E -6.47%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -4.06%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-17 21:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.01%EV -5.53%E -2.75%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -5.26%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.70%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.67%EV -5.06%E -2.50%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.87%EV -5.26%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-17 22:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.67%EV -5.06%E -2.50%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.87%EV -5.26%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.84%EV -7.88%E -4.02%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -5.26%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.25%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-17 22:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.97%EV -8.35%E -4.28%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -5.26%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -4.25%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-17 22:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.08%EV -6.94%E -3.50%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 23.78%EV -5.98%E -1.53%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-17 22:07 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -6.46%E -1.66%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-17 22:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -6.46%E -1.66%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-17 22:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -7.66%E -1.99%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -5.70%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-17 22:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -7.66%E -1.99%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -5.70%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.27%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.86%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -8.61%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -8.35%E -4.28%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -8.86%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -5.70%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-17 22:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.37%EV -9.29%E -4.81%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.06%EV -8.86%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-17 22:02 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -8.35%E -4.28%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -8.86%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-17 22:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -8.35%E -4.28%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -8.86%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-17 22:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.08%EV -12.58%E -6.76%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -8.86%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.39%EV -8.61%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -3.65%E -1.78%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -10.06%E -2.68%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -5.70%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-17 22:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.12%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -10.06%E -2.68%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -8.61%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -8.35%E -4.28%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -10.06%E -2.68%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.99%EV -10.70%E -5.63%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 23.93%EV -10.54%E -2.83%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 29.08%EV -10.93%E -3.56%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -11.26%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.43%EV -6.94%E -3.50%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -11.26%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.94%EV -8.82%E -4.54%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -11.26%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.45%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.42%EV -12.11%E -6.47%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -11.26%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-17 22:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.42%EV -12.11%E -6.47%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -11.26%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-17 22:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 46.98%EV -12.11%E -6.47%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.74%EV -11.26%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.28%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.32%EV -13.05%E -7.05%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.98%EV -12.46%E -3.41%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.70%EV -11.51%E -3.77%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.28%EV -8.35%E -4.28%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -13.66%E -3.79%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -8.61%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-17 22:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.67%EV -9.76%E -5.08%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -13.66%E -3.79%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -8.61%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-17 22:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.14%EV -10.23%E -5.35%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -13.66%E -3.79%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-17 22:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.22% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-08-17 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.22% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-08-17 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.22% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-08-17 22:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.58% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.73% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69% | 1.0% | 2026-08-17 22:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.26% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.34% | 1.7% | 2026-08-17 22:05 |
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