The School of Odds
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Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin

Kickoff: 2026-08-28 22:00 UTC

Final: Union Santa Fe 4–1 Sarmiento de Junin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Santa Fe (Local)

Prediction 48.48%2.06fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -4.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.51%48.57%48.57%51.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.891.911.9857.80%52.79%52.36%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarmiento de Junin (Visit)

Prediction 21.93%4.56fair odd
EV +5.46%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.078%

assuming max odds 4.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.97%21.95%21.83%23.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.214.204.8126.32%23.74%23.81%20.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.59%3.38fair odd
EV -0.867%
Edge -0.259%
Kelly -0.369%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.47%29.47%29.60%30.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.923.163.153.3534.25%31.69%31.75%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Santa Fe (Local): 48.48%; Sarmiento de Junin (Visit): 21.93%; Draw: 29.59%. For Sarmiento de Junin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.56. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.81, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.46%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.52%EV -5.94%E -3.06%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 19.97%EV +5.46%E +1.14%K +1.43%G +0.078%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.50%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-28 21:55
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.80%EV -4.00%E -2.02%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 21.10%EV +0.419%E +0.092%K +0.117%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.10%EV -5.01%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-28 21:55
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -7.40%E -3.87%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -1.33%E -0.297%K -0.381%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-28 21:40
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.07%EV -10.79%E -5.87%K -12.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -1.33%E -0.297%K -0.381%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -0.867%E -0.259%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 21:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -11.28%E -6.16%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -1.33%E -0.297%K -0.381%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -0.867%E -0.259%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-28 21:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.62%EV -4.97%E -2.54%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.61%EV -3.31%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-28 17:01
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.62%EV -4.97%E -2.54%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.61%EV -3.31%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-28 17:00
BetAnything🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.62%EV -4.97%E -2.54%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.61%EV -3.31%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-28 16:57
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.24%EV -7.40%E -3.87%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -3.53%E -0.802%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 21:15
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.61%EV -7.40%E -3.87%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.44%EV -5.06%E -1.17%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -8.27%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 21:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.15%EV -5.94%E -3.06%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -5.72%E -1.33%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -8.27%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 21:55
SportsBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.64%EV -6.91%E -3.60%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -5.72%E -1.33%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 21:35
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -12.73%E -7.07%K -15.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -5.72%E -1.33%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -0.867%E -0.259%K -0.369%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 21:40
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.75%EV -4.00%E -2.02%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.24%EV -6.82%E -1.60%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-28 21:50
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.75%EV -4.00%E -2.02%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.24%EV -6.82%E -1.60%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-28 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.35%EV -5.46%E -2.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.18%EV -6.82%E -1.60%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-28 21:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -5.46%E -2.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.91%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 21:45
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -5.46%E -2.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.91%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 21:55
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.46%E -2.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -7.91%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 21:55
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.82%EV -9.34%E -4.99%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.91%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.27%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-28 21:35
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -9.34%E -4.99%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -7.91%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -11.22%E -3.74%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-28 21:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -9.34%E -4.99%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -7.91%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -11.22%E -3.74%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-28 21:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -15.16%E -8.66%K -20.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -7.91%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-28 21:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -15.16%E -8.66%K -20.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -7.91%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-28 21:55
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.74%EV -5.46%E -2.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -10.10%E -2.46%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 21:40
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.51%EV -5.46%E -2.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -10.10%E -2.46%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.89%EV -8.27%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-28 21:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.51%EV -12.25%E -6.77%K -15.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.42%EV -10.10%E -2.46%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.07%EV -13.59%E -4.65%K -7.08%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-28 21:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.50%EV -16.13%E -9.32%K -22.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.31%EV -10.10%E -2.46%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.18%EV -8.27%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-28 21:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -5.46%E -2.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -12.30%E -3.07%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -3.83%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 21:40
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -5.46%E -2.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -12.30%E -3.07%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-28 21:05
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.55%EV -7.88%E -4.15%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -12.30%E -3.07%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -3.83%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-28 21:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.24%EV -10.31%E -5.57%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -12.30%E -3.07%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.45%EV -10.34%E -3.41%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 21:40
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -10.31%E -5.57%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -12.30%E -3.07%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.22%E -3.74%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-28 21:16
Unibet (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 48.92%EV -13.22%E -7.38%K -16.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.89%EV -12.30%E -3.07%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.19%EV -11.22%E -3.74%K -5.61%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-28 21:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.24%EV -8.85%E -4.71%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -13.39%E -3.39%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.79%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-28 21:40
Bet Right🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.27%EV -7.88%E -4.15%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -14.49%E -3.72%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -3.83%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-28 21:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.15%EV -9.82%E -5.28%K -11.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.96%EV -14.49%E -3.72%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -8.27%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-28 21:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.03%EV -8.85%E -4.71%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -16.68%E -4.39%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-28 20:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53%1.1%2026-08-28 21:46
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53%1.1%2026-08-28 21:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53%1.1%2026-08-28 21:46
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.54%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-08-28 21:50
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.70%2.0%2026-08-28 21:46