Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin

Início: 2026-08-28 22:00 UTC

Final: Union Santa Fe 4–1 Sarmiento de Junin

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

38 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Union Santa Fe (Local)

Previsão 48.48%2.06odd justa
EV -4.00%
Vantagem -2.02%
Kelly -4.09%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.98

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
47.51%48.57%48.57%51.20%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.731.891.911.9857.80%52.79%52.36%50.51%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sarmiento de Junin (Visitante)

Previsão 21.93%4.56odd justa
EV +5.46%
Vantagem +1.14%
Kelly +1.43%
Crescimento +0.078%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.81

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.97%21.95%21.83%23.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.804.214.204.8126.32%23.74%23.81%20.79%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.59%3.38odd justa
EV -0.867%
Vantagem -0.259%
Kelly -0.369%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.35

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.47%29.47%29.60%30.50%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.923.163.153.3534.25%31.69%31.75%29.85%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Union Santa Fe (Local): 48.48%; Sarmiento de Junin (Visitante): 21.93%; Empate: 29.59%. Para Sarmiento de Junin (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.56. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.81, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +5.46%.

Odds das casas de apostas (38 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.52%EV -5.94%E -3.06%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 19.97%EV +5.46%E +1.14%K +1.43%G +0.078%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.50%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-28 21:55
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.80%EV -4.00%E -2.02%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 21.10%EV +0.419%E +0.092%K +0.117%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.10%EV -5.01%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-28 21:55
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -7.40%E -3.87%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -1.33%E -0.297%K -0.381%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-28 21:40
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.07%EV -10.79%E -5.87%K -12.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -1.33%E -0.297%K -0.381%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -0.867%E -0.259%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 21:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -11.28%E -6.16%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -1.33%E -0.297%K -0.381%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -0.867%E -0.259%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-28 21:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.62%EV -4.97%E -2.54%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.61%EV -3.31%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-28 17:01
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.62%EV -4.97%E -2.54%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.61%EV -3.31%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-28 17:00
BetAnything🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.62%EV -4.97%E -2.54%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.61%EV -3.31%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-28 16:57
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.24%EV -7.40%E -3.87%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -3.53%E -0.802%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 21:15
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.61%EV -7.40%E -3.87%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.44%EV -5.06%E -1.17%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -8.27%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 21:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.15%EV -5.94%E -3.06%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -5.72%E -1.33%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -8.27%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 21:55
SportsBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.64%EV -6.91%E -3.60%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -5.72%E -1.33%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 21:35
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -12.73%E -7.07%K -15.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -5.72%E -1.33%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -0.867%E -0.259%K -0.369%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 21:40
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.75%EV -4.00%E -2.02%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.24%EV -6.82%E -1.60%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-28 21:50
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.75%EV -4.00%E -2.02%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.24%EV -6.82%E -1.60%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-28 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.35%EV -5.46%E -2.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.18%EV -6.82%E -1.60%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-28 21:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -5.46%E -2.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.91%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 21:45
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -5.46%E -2.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.91%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 21:55
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.46%E -2.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -7.91%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 21:55
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.82%EV -9.34%E -4.99%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.91%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.27%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-28 21:35
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -9.34%E -4.99%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -7.91%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -11.22%E -3.74%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-28 21:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -9.34%E -4.99%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -7.91%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -11.22%E -3.74%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-28 21:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -15.16%E -8.66%K -20.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -7.91%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-28 21:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -15.16%E -8.66%K -20.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -7.91%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-28 21:55
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.74%EV -5.46%E -2.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -10.10%E -2.46%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 21:40
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.51%EV -5.46%E -2.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -10.10%E -2.46%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.89%EV -8.27%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-28 21:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.51%EV -12.25%E -6.77%K -15.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.42%EV -10.10%E -2.46%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.07%EV -13.59%E -4.65%K -7.08%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-28 21:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.50%EV -16.13%E -9.32%K -22.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.31%EV -10.10%E -2.46%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.18%EV -8.27%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-28 21:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -5.46%E -2.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -12.30%E -3.07%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -3.83%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 21:40
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -5.46%E -2.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -12.30%E -3.07%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-28 21:05
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.55%EV -7.88%E -4.15%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -12.30%E -3.07%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -3.83%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-28 21:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.24%EV -10.31%E -5.57%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -12.30%E -3.07%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.45%EV -10.34%E -3.41%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 21:40
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -10.31%E -5.57%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -12.30%E -3.07%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.22%E -3.74%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-28 21:16
Unibet (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 48.92%EV -13.22%E -7.38%K -16.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.89%EV -12.30%E -3.07%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.19%EV -11.22%E -3.74%K -5.61%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-28 21:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.24%EV -8.85%E -4.71%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -13.39%E -3.39%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.79%EV -6.79%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-28 21:40
Bet Right🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.27%EV -7.88%E -4.15%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -14.49%E -3.72%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -3.83%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-28 21:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.15%EV -9.82%E -5.28%K -11.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.96%EV -14.49%E -3.72%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -8.27%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-28 21:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.03%EV -8.85%E -4.71%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -16.68%E -4.39%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -5.31%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-28 20:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53%1.1%2026-08-28 21:46
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53%1.1%2026-08-28 21:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53%1.1%2026-08-28 21:46
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.54%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-08-28 21:50
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.70%2.0%2026-08-28 21:46