Idioma:Español
Talleres v Union Santa Fe
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Talleres (Local)
Predicción 43.84%2.28momio equitativo
EV -2.24%
Ventaja -1.00%
Kelly -1.82%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.23
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.80%43.76%43.82%44.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.972.122.142.2350.76%47.06%46.73%44.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Union Santa Fe (Visitante)
Predicción 24.73%4.04momio equitativo
EV -0.845%
Ventaja -0.211%
Kelly -0.281%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.01
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.87%24.83%24.78%26.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.693.704.0130.30%27.13%27.03%24.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 31.43%3.18momio equitativo
EV -3.19%
Ventaja -1.03%
Kelly -1.53%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.08
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.20%31.41%31.40%32.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.752.932.953.0836.36%34.08%33.90%32.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Talleres (Local): 43.84%; Union Santa Fe (Visitante): 24.73%; Empate: 31.43%. Para Union Santa Fe (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.04. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 4.01, con un valor esperado de -0.845%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.17%EV -2.24%E -1.00%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -12.22%E -3.44%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.17%EV -2.24%E -1.00%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -12.22%E -3.44%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.74%EV -2.67%E -1.20%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -8.51%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.62%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.69%EV -3.11%E -1.41%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.44%EV -2.33%E -0.590%K -0.790%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.87%EV -4.76%E -1.57%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-12 22:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.69%EV -3.11%E -1.41%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.44%EV -2.33%E -0.590%K -0.790%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.87%EV -4.76%E -1.57%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-12 22:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.69%EV -3.11%E -1.41%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.44%EV -2.33%E -0.590%K -0.790%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.87%EV -4.76%E -1.57%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-12 22:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -13.46%E -3.84%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.42%EV -4.43%E -2.03%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 24.15%EV -0.845%E -0.211%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.44%EV -3.19%E -1.03%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.20%EV -4.87%E -2.24%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.04%EV -1.34%E -0.336%K -0.448%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.76%EV -5.07%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -3.57%E -0.914%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -7.27%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.85%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.87%EV -2.33%E -0.590%K -0.790%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.29%EV -8.22%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -6.04%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -6.04%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 22:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -7.27%E -1.94%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -6.04%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-12 22:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -8.51%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -7.27%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.96%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -7.27%E -1.94%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.41%EV -10.42%E -3.65%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-12 22:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.60%EV -6.18%E -2.89%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -6.04%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.84%EV -7.90%E -2.70%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-12 22:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 41.85%EV -6.18%E -2.89%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -17.17%E -5.12%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.42%EV -10.42%E -3.65%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-12 22:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 41.85%EV -6.18%E -2.89%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -17.17%E -5.12%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.42%EV -10.42%E -3.65%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.30%EV -7.06%E -3.33%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV -4.80%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.94%E -3.78%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -4.80%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.54%EV -7.27%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-12 22:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -7.94%E -3.78%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -7.27%E -1.94%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -7.94%E -3.78%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -7.27%E -1.94%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.94%E -3.78%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -13.46%E -3.84%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-12 22:36 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.94%E -3.78%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -13.46%E -3.84%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-12 22:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -7.94%E -3.78%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-12 22:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -7.94%E -3.78%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -8.51%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.36%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -7.94%E -3.78%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -8.51%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.36%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -7.94%E -3.78%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -15.93%E -4.68%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-12 22:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -7.94%E -3.78%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -13.56%E -4.93%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.90%EV -7.94%E -3.78%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -18.40%E -5.58%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.43%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.01%EV -10.13%E -4.94%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.41%EV -12.22%E -3.44%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.58%EV -7.27%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.79%EV -10.13%E -4.94%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.28%EV -9.79%E -3.41%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.62%EV -12.32%E -6.16%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.14%EV -12.22%E -3.44%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.25%EV -7.27%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.91%EV -12.32%E -6.16%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 31.70%EV -12.93%E -4.67%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.40%EV -13.20%E -6.66%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.76%EV -12.22%E -3.44%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.84%EV -10.42%E -3.65%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 44.58%EV -13.63%E -6.92%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 31.03%EV -11.05%E -3.90%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.85% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.97% | 0.9% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.85% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.97% | 0.9% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.07% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85% | 1.3% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.07% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85% | 1.3% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.16% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40% | 2.1% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |