The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Talleres v Boca Juniors

Kickoff: 2026-04-02 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Talleres (Local)

Prediction 38.11%2.62fair odd
EV +0.233%
Edge +0.088%
Kelly +0.143%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.73%37.92%38.13%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.452.6343.48%40.82%40.82%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boca Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 28.66%3.49fair odd
EV -0.552%
Edge -0.159%
Kelly -0.223%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.89%28.91%28.61%31.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.163.233.4735.09%31.62%30.96%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.23%3.01fair odd
EV +3.01%
Edge +0.971%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.043%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.00%33.17%33.26%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.802.803.1038.46%35.75%35.71%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Talleres (Local): 38.11%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 28.66%; Draw: 33.23%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.01%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.06%EV -6.25%E -2.54%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.94%EV -8.00%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.00%EV +3.01%E +0.971%K +1.43%G +0.043%4.1%2026-04-02 23:15
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.93%EV +0.233%E +0.088%K +0.143%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.49%EV -14.02%E -4.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.58%EV -3.64%E -1.25%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-02 23:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.93%EV +0.233%E +0.088%K +0.143%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.49%EV -14.02%E -4.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.58%EV -3.64%E -1.25%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-02 23:05
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.73%EV +0.233%E +0.088%K +0.143%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -15.45%E -5.24%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.41%EV -3.64%E -1.25%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-02 23:04
Pinnacle🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 38.40%EV -3.96%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.89%EV -0.552%E -0.159%K -0.223%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.72%EV -4.63%E -1.61%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-02 23:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.81%EV -3.96%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -5.42%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.32%EV -4.96%E -1.74%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-02 22:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.81%EV -3.96%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -5.42%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.32%EV -4.96%E -1.74%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-02 22:55
BetAnything🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.81%EV -3.96%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -5.42%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.32%EV -4.96%E -1.74%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-02 22:50
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -6.63%E -2.71%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -5.30%E -1.86%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 23:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -6.63%E -2.71%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -5.30%E -1.86%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 23:04
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -8.53%E -3.56%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -11.16%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -5.30%E -1.86%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-02 23:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -10.44%E -4.44%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.35%EV -11.16%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -5.30%E -1.86%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-02 23:04
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.30%EV -6.63%E -2.71%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -5.42%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.27%EV -6.29%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-02 23:25
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.30%EV -6.63%E -2.71%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -5.42%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.27%EV -6.29%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-02 23:25
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -4.72%E -1.89%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.42%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -6.96%E -2.48%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-02 22:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.63%E -2.71%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.42%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.96%E -2.48%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-02 22:49
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.63%E -2.71%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.42%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.96%E -2.48%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-02 23:14
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -6.63%E -2.71%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -6.96%E -2.48%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-02 22:49
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -6.63%E -2.71%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -8.29%E -2.59%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.96%E -2.48%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-02 23:04
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -8.53%E -3.56%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -6.96%E -2.48%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-02 22:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -2.82%E -1.10%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.52%EV -16.89%E -5.82%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -6.96%E -2.48%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-02 23:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -2.82%E -1.10%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.52%EV -16.89%E -5.82%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -6.96%E -2.48%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-02 23:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -8.53%E -3.56%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -12.59%E -4.13%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -6.96%E -2.48%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-02 23:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.10%EV -4.72%E -1.89%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -18.32%E -6.43%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -6.96%E -2.48%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-02 23:24
Everygame🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -6.63%E -2.71%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -3.99%E -1.19%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -8.62%E -3.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-02 22:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.63%E -2.71%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.95%EV -4.28%E -1.28%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -8.62%E -3.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-02 23:25
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.63%E -2.71%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.42%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.62%E -3.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 23:15
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.53%E -3.56%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -5.42%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.62%E -3.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-02 23:25
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -9.30%E -3.91%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -8.62%E -3.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-02 22:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -12.34%E -5.37%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.16%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -8.62%E -3.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-02 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.23%EV -12.34%E -5.37%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -15.45%E -5.24%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.97%EV -8.62%E -3.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-02 23:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.12%EV -8.53%E -3.56%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.89%EV -14.59%E -4.90%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -10.28%E -3.81%K -6.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-02 23:05
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.42%EV -9.30%E -3.91%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -11.16%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.86%EV -12.61%E -4.79%K -7.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-02 23:00
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -9.30%E -3.91%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.04%EV -8.29%E -2.59%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.25%EV -12.94%E -4.94%K -7.99%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-02 23:14
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.40%EV -11.58%E -4.99%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.22%EV -14.88%E -5.01%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.38%EV -13.60%E -5.23%K -8.50%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-02 23:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.27%EV -12.34%E -5.37%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.76%EV -17.46%E -6.06%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.97%EV -13.60%E -5.23%K -8.50%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-02 23:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.84%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.01%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.15%0.6%2026-04-02 23:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.03%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.93%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.05%0.9%2026-04-02 23:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.03%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.93%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.05%0.9%2026-04-02 23:25
Matchbook◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.03%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.93%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.05%0.9%2026-04-02 23:25
Smarkets◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.32%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.69%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.99%1.7%2026-04-02 23:25
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.27%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%2.1%2026-04-02 23:05