The School of Odds
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Sarmiento de Junin v CA Tigre BA

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 22:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarmiento de Junin (Local)

Prediction 28.66%3.49fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.492%
Kelly -0.694%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.77%28.78%28.60%29.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.193.203.4335.09%31.31%31.25%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CA Tigre BA (Visit)

Prediction 37.53%2.66fair odd
EV -4.29%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.48%37.53%37.55%38.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.482.5543.48%40.83%40.32%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.81%2.96fair odd
EV -0.273%
Edge -0.093%
Kelly -0.140%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.93%33.69%33.85%34.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.772.792.9540.00%36.10%35.84%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sarmiento de Junin (Local): 28.66%; CA Tigre BA (Visit): 37.53%; Draw: 33.81%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.95, with an expected value of -0.273%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 27.77%EV -1.69%E -0.492%K -0.694%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.10%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.14%EV -5.68%E -2.04%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-22 15:19
BetOnline.ag🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 27.77%EV -1.69%E -0.492%K -0.694%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.10%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.14%EV -5.68%E -2.04%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-22 15:24
Pinnacle🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 28.28%EV -3.41%E -1.01%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.67%EV -5.05%E -1.99%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.04%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-23 02:54
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -8.05%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -3.65%E -1.28%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 22:15
Betsson🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.83%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.75%EV -6.02%E -2.17%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 12:49
NordicBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.83%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.75%EV -6.02%E -2.17%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 12:49
Fanatics🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -7.03%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 13:14
1xBet🎯3.29I 30.40%NM 28.47%EV -5.70%E -1.73%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.06%EV -7.03%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 08:04
Marathon Bet🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 28.45%EV -5.99%E -1.83%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.62%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -7.03%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 08:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.85%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -7.03%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 22:15
Bovada🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.85%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 17:19
BetAnything🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.85%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 17:20
DraftKings🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -6.85%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.03%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 08:00
SportsBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -6.85%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -9.92%E -4.14%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 16:29
Everygame🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -6.85%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.05%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 02:43
Unibet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.63%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.23%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.14%EV -0.273%E -0.093%K -0.140%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-22 16:24
Unibet (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.63%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.23%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.14%EV -0.273%E -0.093%K -0.140%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-22 16:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.70%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -2.98%E -1.04%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 17:14
theScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 08:19
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -8.05%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 17:15
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-21 01:15
PlayUp🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.05%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.03%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-22 12:49
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -9.92%E -4.14%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 16:28
BetRivers🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.96%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.05%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -0.273%E -0.093%K -0.140%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 16:24
Betclic (FR)🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 28.62%EV -10.57%E -3.39%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.68%EV -11.05%E -4.66%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.70%EV -10.41%E -3.93%K -6.31%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-23 22:18
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -11.15%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-22 12:49
Bet Right🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -11.15%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -8.05%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-22 16:29
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.15%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -9.92%E -4.14%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-22 16:29
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -11.15%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -10.67%E -4.49%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-22 22:15
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.15%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.81%EV -11.80%E -5.02%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.53%EV -10.41%E -3.93%K -6.31%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-23 22:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.87%EV -11.15%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.57%EV -13.68%E -5.95%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.56%EV -15.49%E -6.19%K -10.32%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-22 16:29
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -12.58%E -4.12%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.23%EV -10.67%E -4.49%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -3.65%E -1.28%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-22 16:24
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -12.58%E -4.12%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.23%EV -10.67%E -4.49%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -3.65%E -1.28%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-22 16:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.52%EV -12.58%E -4.12%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -11.80%E -5.02%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-22 16:24
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -14.01%E -4.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -9.92%E -4.14%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.47%EV -10.41%E -3.93%K -6.31%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-21 02:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 29.79%EV -18.31%E -6.43%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.91%EV -13.68%E -5.95%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.30%EV -13.80%E -5.41%K -8.90%G +0.000%17.8%2026-04-21 02:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎3.40I 29.41%NM 28.70%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.11%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.19%2.5%2026-04-23 23:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.12%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%5.2%2026-04-23 23:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.12%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%5.2%2026-04-23 23:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.12%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%5.2%2026-04-23 23:34
Smarkets◎3.35I 29.85%NM 28.09%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.05%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%6.3%2026-04-24 03:45