The School of Odds
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San Lorenzo v Estudiantes

Kickoff: 2026-04-03 22:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Lorenzo (Local)

Prediction 27.93%3.58fair odd
EV -0.571%
Edge -0.160%
Kelly -0.223%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.79%27.92%27.94%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.313.303.5632.26%30.22%30.30%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estudiantes (Visit)

Prediction 38.07%2.63fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.04%38.05%38.03%38.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.272.422.442.5544.05%41.37%40.98%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.00%2.94fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -0.599%
Kelly -0.915%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.27%34.03%34.03%35.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.722.732.8940.00%36.79%36.63%34.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Lorenzo (Local): 27.93%; Estudiantes (Visit): 38.07%; Draw: 34.00%. For San Lorenzo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.56, with an expected value of -0.571%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯3.56I 28.09%NM 26.79%EV -0.571%E -0.160%K -0.223%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.15%EV -4.83%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.06%EV -7.51%E -2.76%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-03 22:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.56I 28.09%NM 26.79%EV -0.571%E -0.160%K -0.223%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.15%EV -4.83%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.06%EV -7.51%E -2.76%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-03 22:20
1xBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.04%EV -0.851%E -0.240%K -0.334%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.55%EV -5.21%E -2.09%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.41%EV -5.13%E -1.84%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-03 22:15
Pinnacle🎯3.49I 28.65%NM 27.75%EV -2.53%E -0.724%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.74%EV -4.83%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.51%EV -1.73%E -0.599%K -0.915%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-03 22:25
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -4.83%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -6.49%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-03 22:05
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -4.79%E -1.71%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-03 22:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -4.79%E -1.71%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-03 22:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.49%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 22:25
BetAnything🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.49%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 22:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -8.19%E -3.03%K -4.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-03 22:10
theScore Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -8.19%E -3.03%K -4.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-03 22:10
Marathon Bet🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 27.59%EV -5.60%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.38%EV -7.50%E -3.09%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.03%EV -6.83%E -2.49%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 22:25
DraftKings🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.89%EV -4.83%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.83%EV -4.79%E -1.71%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-03 22:20
Everygame🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.86%EV -8.64%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -4.79%E -1.71%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 22:20
BetRivers🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -7.83%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -2.93%E -1.15%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -6.49%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-03 22:10
Betsson🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -7.83%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.30%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.27%EV -4.11%E -1.46%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 22:15
NordicBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -7.83%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.30%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.27%EV -4.11%E -1.46%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 22:15
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -7.83%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.83%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.49%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-03 22:25
BetMGM🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -7.83%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -8.19%E -3.03%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-03 22:24
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -7.83%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -8.19%E -3.03%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-03 22:25
Betway🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -7.83%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.64%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.49%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-03 22:15
PlayUp🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -7.83%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.64%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.49%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-03 22:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -7.83%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -10.54%E -4.49%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -8.19%E -3.03%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-03 22:25
LiveScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -7.83%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -10.54%E -4.49%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -8.19%E -3.03%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-03 22:25
Winamax (DE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -10.54%E -4.49%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -8.19%E -3.03%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-03 22:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.76%EV -11.30%E -4.85%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.45%EV -8.19%E -3.03%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-03 22:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.46%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.47%EV -11.68%E -5.04%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -10.91%E -4.16%K -6.74%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-03 22:08
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -8.64%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -6.49%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-03 22:04
Bet Right🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -8.64%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -6.49%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-03 22:20
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -8.64%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.36%EV -10.91%E -4.16%K -6.74%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-03 22:25
Unibet (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.41%EV -12.45%E -5.41%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV -11.59%E -4.46%K -7.24%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-03 22:09
Betr (AU)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.74%EV -12.02%E -3.82%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.72%EV -8.64%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -8.19%E -3.03%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-03 22:20
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -13.42%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.27%EV -9.40%E -3.95%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -11.59%E -4.46%K -7.24%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-03 22:25
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.25%EV -13.42%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.07%EV -12.45%E -5.41%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.68%EV -11.59%E -4.46%K -7.24%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-03 22:10
NetBet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.00%EV -13.42%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 38.23%EV -13.59%E -5.99%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 33.77%EV -12.61%E -4.91%K -8.03%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-03 22:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.87%EV -13.42%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.57%EV -12.45%E -5.41%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.56%EV -14.99%E -6.00%K -9.99%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-03 22:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.55I 28.17%NM 28.02%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.68%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.30%0.5%2026-04-03 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.55I 28.17%NM 28.02%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.68%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.30%0.5%2026-04-03 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.55I 28.17%NM 27.94%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.86%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.20%0.8%2026-04-03 22:15
Matchbook◎3.55I 28.17%NM 27.94%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.86%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.20%0.8%2026-04-03 22:20
Smarkets◎3.55I 28.17%NM 27.79%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.26%1.4%2026-04-03 22:25
Kalshi◎3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.21%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.34%2.0%2026-04-03 22:15