The School of Odds
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Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 20:00 UTC

Final: Rosario Central 1–0 Argentinos Juniors

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rosario Central (Local)

Prediction 48.03%2.08fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -3.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.61%47.98%48.16%49.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.931.942.0154.64%51.75%51.55%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Argentinos Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 22.71%4.40fair odd
EV +1.07%
Edge +0.240%
Kelly +0.310%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.39%22.73%22.62%24.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.074.004.4527.40%24.60%25.00%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.26%3.42fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -0.772%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.70%29.30%29.22%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.153.153.3333.90%31.79%31.75%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rosario Central (Local): 48.03%; Argentinos Juniors (Visit): 22.71%; Draw: 29.26%. For Argentinos Juniors (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.40. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.28%EV -5.86%E -2.99%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.71%EV +1.07%E +0.240%K +0.310%G +0.003%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.01%EV -2.57%E -0.772%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 19:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.28%EV -5.86%E -2.99%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.71%EV +1.07%E +0.240%K +0.310%G +0.003%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.01%EV -2.57%E -0.772%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 19:39
BetAnything🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.28%EV -5.86%E -2.99%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.71%EV +1.07%E +0.240%K +0.310%G +0.003%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.01%EV -2.57%E -0.772%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 19:34
Pinnacle🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.08%EV -5.38%E -2.73%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.88%EV +0.388%E +0.088%K +0.113%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.04%EV -2.57%E -0.772%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-20 19:49
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.26%EV -6.34%E -3.25%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -0.067%E -0.015%K -0.020%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.36%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 19:34
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.26%EV -6.34%E -3.25%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -0.067%E -0.015%K -0.020%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.36%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 19:34
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.95%EV -5.86%E -2.99%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.06%EV -1.20%E -0.276%K -0.359%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.99%EV -3.16%E -0.954%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-20 19:54
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.99%EV -8.26%E -4.33%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV -2.34%E -0.544%K -0.708%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.38%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 19:37
PlayUp🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.68%EV -7.30%E -3.78%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -3.47%E -0.817%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -12.23%E -4.08%K -6.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 19:34
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.44%EV -6.34%E -3.25%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -4.61%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -4.91%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 19:34
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -6.34%E -3.25%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -4.61%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.38%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 19:34
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -8.26%E -4.33%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -4.61%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.91%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 19:49
SportsBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -6.82%E -3.52%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -4.61%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -7.84%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 19:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -8.26%E -4.33%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -4.61%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.38%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 19:54
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.74%EV -6.34%E -3.25%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -6.88%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -7.84%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 19:42
Codere (IT)🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.93%EV -3.46%E -1.72%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.38%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -3.94%E -1.97%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.38%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 18:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -3.94%E -1.97%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.38%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 18:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -3.94%E -1.97%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.84%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 19:34
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -3.94%E -1.97%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.84%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 19:34
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.87%EV -4.90%E -2.47%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.93%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 18:59
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -8.26%E -4.33%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.38%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-20 19:43
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -8.74%E -4.60%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -6.38%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 19:04
Bet Right🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -8.74%E -4.60%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -6.38%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 19:04
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.43%EV -8.74%E -4.60%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -12.23%E -4.08%K -6.11%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 19:34
BetRivers🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -6.34%E -3.25%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26%EV -10.29%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 19:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.10%EV -9.70%E -5.16%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -11.42%E -2.93%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -7.84%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-20 19:04
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.82%EV -11.14%E -6.02%K -13.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -11.42%E -2.93%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.49%EV -12.23%E -4.08%K -6.11%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-20 19:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.95%EV -12.10%E -6.61%K -14.58%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.79%EV -12.56%E -3.26%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.25%EV -12.23%E -4.08%K -6.11%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-20 19:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.61%EV -7.78%E -4.05%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -13.69%E -3.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.83%EV -12.23%E -4.08%K -6.11%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 19:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.61%EV -7.78%E -4.05%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -13.69%E -3.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.83%EV -12.23%E -4.08%K -6.11%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 19:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.88%EV -6.82%E -3.52%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.25%EV -14.83%E -3.95%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -7.84%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 18:28
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.76%EV -9.70%E -5.16%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -14.83%E -3.95%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -13.69%E -4.64%K -7.02%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-20 19:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 47.53%EV -11.62%E -6.32%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.32%EV -14.83%E -3.95%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.15%EV -12.23%E -4.08%K -6.11%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-20 19:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.88%EV -10.18%E -5.45%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.70%EV -15.97%E -4.31%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.42%EV -12.81%E -4.30%K -6.47%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-20 19:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.61%EV -7.78%E -4.05%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -17.10%E -4.69%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 18:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.70%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-09-20 19:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.70%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-09-20 19:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.70%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-09-20 19:54
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.54%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.76%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.70%1.0%2026-09-20 19:34
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.74%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.39%1.6%2026-09-20 19:54