A Escola das Odds

River Plate v Gimnasia La Plata

Início: 2026-05-14 00:45 UTC

Final: River Plate 2–0 Gimnasia La Plata

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

33 casas de apostas (11 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

River Plate (Local)

Previsão 59.97%1.67odd justa
EV -2.85%
Vantagem -1.76%
Kelly -4.60%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.62

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
57.66%59.99%59.95%63.86%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.411.531.531.6270.92%65.27%65.36%61.73%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Gimnasia La Plata (Visitante)

Previsão 14.70%6.80odd justa
EV +2.90%
Vantagem +0.415%
Kelly +0.484%
Crescimento +0.014%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
13.30%14.72%14.68%16.33%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
5.406.416.507.0018.52%15.60%15.38%14.29%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 25.33%3.95odd justa
EV +3.85%
Vantagem +0.940%
Kelly +1.24%
Crescimento +0.048%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.78%25.29%25.37%26.87%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.253.683.654.1030.77%27.15%27.40%24.39%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (33 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargemAtualização
Unibet1.48I 67.57%NM 63.60%EV -11.25%E -7.60%K -23.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +2.90%E +0.415%K +0.484%G +0.014%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV +3.85%E +0.940%K +1.24%G +0.048%6.2%2026-05-14 00:30
Unibet (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.60%EV -11.25%E -7.60%K -23.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +2.90%E +0.415%K +0.484%G +0.014%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV +3.85%E +0.940%K +1.24%G +0.048%6.2%2026-05-14 00:30
Virgin Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 63.72%EV -14.24%E -9.96%K -33.12%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.50%EV -0.771%E -0.114%K -0.134%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV +1.32%E +0.330%K +0.440%G +0.006%9.7%2026-05-14 00:30
LiveScore Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 63.72%EV -14.24%E -9.96%K -33.12%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.50%EV -0.771%E -0.114%K -0.134%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV +1.32%E +0.330%K +0.440%G +0.006%9.7%2026-05-14 00:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 63.86%EV -15.44%E -10.95%K -37.67%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.34%EV -0.771%E -0.114%K -0.134%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.80%EV +0.053%E +0.013%K +0.018%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-14 00:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.39%EV -7.05%E -4.55%K -12.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -11.80%E -1.97%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -1.21%E -0.311%K -0.418%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-14 00:30
BetMGM1.54I 64.94%NM 60.55%EV -7.65%E -4.97%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -8.12%E -1.30%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -3.75%E -0.986%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-14 00:30
Winamax (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.00%EV -8.85%E -5.82%K -17.01%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.00%EV -16.21%E -2.84%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -3.75%E -0.986%K -1.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-14 00:30
Pinnacle1.60I 62.50%NM 60.25%EV -4.05%E -2.53%K -6.75%G +0.000%6.83I 14.64%NM 14.11%EV +0.405%E +0.059%K +0.069%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.64%EV -4.76%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-14 00:30
LowVig.ag1.59I 62.89%NM 59.97%EV -4.65%E -2.92%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.67%EV -4.45%E -0.684%K -0.808%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.36%EV -4.76%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-14 00:30
BetOnline.ag1.59I 62.89%NM 59.97%EV -4.65%E -2.92%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.67%EV -4.45%E -0.684%K -0.808%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.36%EV -4.76%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-14 00:30
BetAnything1.59I 62.89%NM 59.97%EV -4.65%E -2.92%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.67%EV -4.45%E -0.684%K -0.808%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.36%EV -4.76%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-14 00:29
DraftKings1.59I 62.89%NM 59.93%EV -4.65%E -2.92%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.66%EV -4.45%E -0.684%K -0.808%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-14 00:30
Unibet (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.54%EV -7.05%E -4.55%K -12.81%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.45%E -0.684%K -0.808%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 00:30
Marathon Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -6.45%E -4.13%K -11.51%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -8.12%E -1.30%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.33%EV -6.79%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-14 00:30
Betsson1.58I 63.29%NM 59.25%EV -5.25%E -3.32%K -9.05%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.10%EV -8.86%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -7.55%E -2.07%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-14 00:29
NordicBet1.58I 63.29%NM 59.25%EV -5.25%E -3.32%K -9.05%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.10%EV -8.86%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -7.55%E -2.07%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-14 00:29
Everygame1.53I 65.36%NM 60.76%EV -8.25%E -5.39%K -15.56%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.77%EV -0.771%E -0.114%K -0.134%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.47%EV -7.55%E -2.07%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 00:29
FanDuel1.53I 65.36%NM 60.84%EV -8.25%E -5.39%K -15.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV +2.90%E +0.415%K +0.484%G +0.014%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-14 00:30
BoyleSports1.55I 64.52%NM 59.92%EV -7.05%E -4.55%K -12.81%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -4.45%E -0.684%K -0.808%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-14 00:30
Bet Right1.53I 65.36%NM 60.23%EV -8.25%E -5.39%K -15.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -4.45%E -0.684%K -0.808%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-14 00:30
betfred_uk1.53I 65.36%NM 60.23%EV -8.25%E -5.39%K -15.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -4.45%E -0.684%K -0.808%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-14 00:30
Winamax (FR)1.49I 67.11%NM 59.18%EV -10.65%E -7.14%K -21.73%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.33%EV -20.62%E -3.82%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.49%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-14 00:30
1xBet1.62I 61.73%NM 59.37%EV -2.85%E -1.76%K -4.60%G +0.000%6.99I 14.31%NM 13.76%EV +2.76%E +0.394%K +0.460%G +0.013%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.87%EV -9.32%E -2.60%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-14 00:29
Betclic (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 59.76%EV -10.05%E -6.70%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.19%EV -13.27%E -2.25%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.04%EV -9.32%E -2.60%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-14 00:25
PlayUp1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -5.25%E -3.32%K -9.05%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -11.80%E -1.97%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -10.08%E -2.84%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-14 00:30
Unibet (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 60.13%EV -12.44%E -8.52%K -27.05%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.14%EV -14.74%E -2.54%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.73%EV -10.08%E -2.84%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-14 00:29
Bovada1.60I 62.50%NM 58.71%EV -4.05%E -2.53%K -6.75%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -4.45%E -0.684%K -0.808%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -11.35%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 00:30
SportsBet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -7.05%E -4.55%K -12.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV +2.90%E +0.415%K +0.484%G +0.014%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -11.35%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-14 00:30
Betr (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 59.61%EV -8.85%E -5.82%K -17.01%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.50%EV -8.12%E -1.30%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -11.35%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-14 00:30
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 59.81%EV -10.05%E -6.70%K -20.09%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.80%EV -4.45%E -0.684%K -0.808%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -13.88%E -4.08%K -5.78%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-14 00:30
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 59.01%EV -10.05%E -6.70%K -20.09%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.16%EV -8.12%E -1.30%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.82%EV -16.41%E -4.97%K -7.14%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-14 00:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 57.66%EV -10.05%E -6.70%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.73%EV -19.15%E -3.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.61%EV -17.68%E -5.44%K -7.86%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-14 00:30
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.62I 61.73%NM 61.39%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.17%0.5%2026-05-14 00:30
Matchbook1.59I 62.89%NM 62.02%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.95%1.4%2026-05-14 00:30
Smarkets1.60I 62.50%NM 61.49%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.61%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.89%1.6%2026-05-14 00:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 61.84%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.29%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.87%1.7%2026-05-14 00:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.59I 62.89%NM 61.84%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.29%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.87%1.7%2026-05-14 00:30