Language:English
River Plate v Boca Juniors
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
River Plate (Local)
Prediction 42.12%2.37fair odd
EV +1.50%
Edge +0.623%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.016%
assuming max odds 2.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.87%42.18%42.14%42.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.202.4148.78%45.43%45.45%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Boca Juniors (Visit)
Prediction 26.02%3.84fair odd
EV +2.54%
Edge +0.644%
Kelly +0.863%
Growth +0.022%
assuming max odds 3.94
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.54%26.02%25.95%28.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.523.503.9431.25%28.39%28.57%25.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.86%3.14fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.399%
Kelly -0.589%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.35%31.80%31.91%32.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.922.903.1038.02%34.30%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: River Plate (Local): 42.12%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 26.02%; Draw: 31.86%. For Boca Juniors (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.94, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.54%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.79%EV -4.82%E -2.13%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.54%EV +2.54%E +0.644%K +0.863%G +0.022% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.67%EV -5.70%E -1.92%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-19 19:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.88%EV -6.50%E -2.93%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.85%EV -0.326%E -0.085%K -0.115%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.27%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 19:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.88%EV -6.50%E -2.93%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.85%EV -0.326%E -0.085%K -0.115%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.27%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 19:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -2.41%E -0.642%K -0.876%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -9.20%E -3.23%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-19 19:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -3.71%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.61%E -2.62%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-19 19:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.35%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -3.71%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.47%EV -8.57%E -2.98%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-19 19:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.34%EV -4.23%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.27%EV -7.93%E -2.74%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-19 19:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.03%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -5.01%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.06%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-19 19:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -5.01%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -8.25%E -2.86%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-19 19:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -5.01%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -8.25%E -2.86%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-19 19:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.31%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.42%E -1.47%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-19 19:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -6.31%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -8.25%E -2.86%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-19 19:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -9.45%E -4.39%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.31%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.61%E -2.62%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-19 19:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.45%E -4.39%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -6.31%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -10.80%E -3.86%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-19 19:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.61%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -7.61%E -2.62%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-19 19:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.61%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -7.61%E -2.62%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-19 19:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.27%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -7.61%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -9.20%E -3.23%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-19 19:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.44%EV -6.08%E -2.73%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.04%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -1.24%E -0.399%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.44%EV -6.08%E -2.73%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.04%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -1.24%E -0.399%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -1.24%E -0.399%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-19 19:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -4.42%E -1.47%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-19 19:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -4.42%E -1.47%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-19 19:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-19 19:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -7.61%E -2.62%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-19 19:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -7.61%E -2.62%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-19 19:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -9.45%E -4.39%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -12.39%E -4.50%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-19 19:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.68%EV -9.87%E -4.61%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -11.52%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -4.42%E -1.47%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-19 19:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.68%EV -9.87%E -4.61%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -11.52%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -4.42%E -1.47%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-19 19:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.87%EV +1.50%E +0.623%K +1.06%G +0.016% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.52%EV -12.30%E -3.65%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.61%EV -3.15%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-19 19:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -12.82%E -3.83%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-19 19:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.53%EV -10.71%E -5.05%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -12.82%E -3.83%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-19 19:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 41.96%EV -10.29%E -4.83%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -12.82%E -3.83%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.36%EV -9.20%E -3.23%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-19 19:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.42%EV -13.66%E -6.66%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.96%EV -12.82%E -3.83%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.62%EV -12.39%E -4.50%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-04-19 19:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -14.12%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -7.61%E -2.62%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-19 19:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.01%EV -9.45%E -4.39%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -14.12%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.62%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-19 19:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.90%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -14.12%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.43%EV -10.80%E -3.86%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-04-19 19:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.91%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.43%EV -15.42%E -4.74%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.66%EV -16.21%E -6.16%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-04-19 19:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.79%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.42%EV -16.72%E -5.23%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.79%EV -9.20%E -3.23%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-04-19 19:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63% | 0.5% | 2026-04-19 19:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63% | 0.5% | 2026-04-19 19:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63% | 0.5% | 2026-04-19 19:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63% | 0.5% | 2026-04-19 19:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.02% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.21% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.77% | 1.7% | 2026-04-19 19:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.68% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.20% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.12% | 3.0% | 2026-04-19 17:01 |