L’École des cotes

River Plate v Boca Juniors

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-19 20:00 UTC

Score final : River Plate 0–1 Boca Juniors

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

38 opérateurs (16 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

River Plate (Local)

Prévision 42.12%2.37cote équitable
EV +1.50%
Avantage +0.623%
Kelly +1.06%
Croissance +0.016%

avec la cote maximale 2.41

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.87%42.18%42.14%42.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.052.202.202.4148.78%45.43%45.45%41.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Boca Juniors (Visiteur)

Prévision 26.02%3.84cote équitable
EV +2.54%
Avantage +0.644%
Kelly +0.863%
Croissance +0.022%

avec la cote maximale 3.94

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.54%26.02%25.95%28.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.523.503.9431.25%28.39%28.57%25.38%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 31.86%3.14cote équitable
EV -1.24%
Avantage -0.399%
Kelly -0.589%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.35%31.80%31.91%32.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.632.922.903.1038.02%34.30%34.48%32.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (38 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle2.26I 44.25%NM 42.79%EV -4.82%E -2.13%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.54%EV +2.54%E +0.644%K +0.863%G +0.022%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.67%EV -5.70%E -1.92%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-19 19:50
BetOnline.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 42.88%EV -6.50%E -2.93%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.85%EV -0.326%E -0.085%K -0.115%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.27%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-19 19:50
LowVig.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 42.88%EV -6.50%E -2.93%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.85%EV -0.326%E -0.085%K -0.115%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.27%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-19 19:50
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -2.41%E -0.642%K -0.876%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -9.20%E -3.23%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 19:50
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -3.71%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.61%E -2.62%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 19:40
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.35%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -3.71%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.47%EV -8.57%E -2.98%K -4.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 19:39
Marathon Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.34%EV -4.23%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.27%EV -7.93%E -2.74%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 19:55
DraftKings2.25I 44.44%NM 42.03%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -5.01%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.06%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-19 19:40
Betsson2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -5.01%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -8.25%E -2.86%K -4.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 19:50
NordicBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -5.01%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -8.25%E -2.86%K -4.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 19:50
theScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.31%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.42%E -1.47%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-19 19:35
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -6.31%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -8.25%E -2.86%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 19:50
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -9.45%E -4.39%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.31%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.61%E -2.62%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 19:34
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.45%E -4.39%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -6.31%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -10.80%E -3.86%K -6.00%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-19 19:40
Bovada2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.61%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -7.61%E -2.62%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:50
BetAnything2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.61%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -7.61%E -2.62%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:55
PlayUp2.25I 44.44%NM 41.27%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -7.61%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -9.20%E -3.23%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-19 19:45
Unibet (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 42.44%EV -6.08%E -2.73%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.04%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -1.24%E -0.399%K -0.589%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-19 19:30
Unibet2.23I 44.84%NM 42.44%EV -6.08%E -2.73%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.04%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -1.24%E -0.399%K -0.589%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-19 19:30
BetRivers2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -1.24%E -0.399%K -0.589%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 19:35
Fanatics2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -4.42%E -1.47%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 19:15
betfred_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -4.42%E -1.47%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 19:40
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 19:35
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -7.61%E -2.62%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 19:25
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -7.61%E -2.62%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 19:24
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -9.45%E -4.39%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -8.91%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -12.39%E -4.50%K -7.08%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-19 19:40
Virgin Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 42.68%EV -9.87%E -4.61%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -11.52%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -4.42%E -1.47%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 19:35
LiveScore Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 42.68%EV -9.87%E -4.61%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -11.52%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -4.42%E -1.47%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 19:35
1xBet2.41I 41.49%NM 39.87%EV +1.50%E +0.623%K +1.06%G +0.016%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.52%EV -12.30%E -3.65%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.61%EV -3.15%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-19 19:50
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -12.82%E -3.83%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-19 19:45
LeoVegas (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 42.53%EV -10.71%E -5.05%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -12.82%E -3.83%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-19 19:50
Betclic (FR)2.13I 46.95%NM 41.96%EV -10.29%E -4.83%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -12.82%E -3.83%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.36%EV -9.20%E -3.23%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-19 19:35
NetBet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.42%EV -13.66%E -6.66%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.96%EV -12.82%E -3.83%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.62%EV -12.39%E -4.50%K -7.08%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-19 19:45
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -14.12%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -7.61%E -2.62%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 19:45
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.01%EV -9.45%E -4.39%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -14.12%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.62%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-19 19:35
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.90%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -14.12%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.43%EV -10.80%E -3.86%K -6.00%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-19 19:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.91%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.43%EV -15.42%E -4.74%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.66%EV -16.21%E -6.16%K -9.95%G +0.000%16.4%2026-04-19 19:40
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.79%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.42%EV -16.72%E -5.23%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.79%EV -9.20%E -3.23%K -4.97%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-19 19:35
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63%0.5%2026-04-19 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63%0.5%2026-04-19 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63%0.5%2026-04-19 19:50
Matchbook2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63%0.5%2026-04-19 19:50
Smarkets2.34I 42.74%NM 42.02%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.21%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.77%1.7%2026-04-19 19:55
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 41.68%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.20%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.12%3.0%2026-04-19 17:01