The School of Odds
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Platense v Velez Sarsfield BA

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Platense (Local)

Prediction 32.61%3.07fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -0.726%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.25%32.61%32.74%35.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.812.803.0039.22%35.58%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit)

Prediction 32.58%3.07fair odd
EV -0.314%
Edge -0.103%
Kelly -0.152%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.58%32.65%32.45%34.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.832.833.0640.00%35.39%35.40%32.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.82%2.87fair odd
EV +0.269%
Edge +0.093%
Kelly +0.143%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.11%34.74%34.82%36.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.672.702.8843.48%37.47%37.04%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Platense (Local): 32.61%; Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit): 32.58%; Draw: 34.82%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.87. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.269%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.02%EV -10.66%E -3.89%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.67%EV -1.29%E -0.426%K -0.636%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.32%EV +0.269%E +0.093%K +0.143%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-14 21:55
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -10.33%E -3.76%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -5.53%E -1.91%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -0.776%E -0.272%K -0.419%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 21:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -10.33%E -3.76%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -5.53%E -1.91%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -0.776%E -0.272%K -0.419%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 21:55
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -10.33%E -3.76%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -5.53%E -1.91%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -2.52%E -0.899%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 21:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.59%EV -6.42%E -2.24%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.01%EV -10.41%E -3.79%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.40%EV -2.52%E -0.899%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-14 16:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -5.44%E -1.88%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -8.78%E -3.14%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -4.26%E -1.55%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 14:15
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.54%EV -7.07%E -2.48%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.41%E -3.79%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.26%E -1.55%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 16:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -13.59%E -5.13%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.52%EV -8.78%E -3.14%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.11%EV -4.26%E -1.55%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 21:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.52%EV -8.70%E -3.11%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -13.67%E -5.16%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.11%EV -4.26%E -1.55%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 14:15
Pinnacle🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 32.61%EV -3.16%E -1.06%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.65%EV -0.314%E -0.103%K -0.152%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.74%EV -5.65%E -2.08%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-14 21:55
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -5.44%E -1.88%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.16%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.13%EV -6.00%E -2.22%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 21:40
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -7.07%E -2.48%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -5.53%E -1.91%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -6.00%E -2.22%K -3.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 21:55
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -5.44%E -1.88%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -8.78%E -3.14%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.00%E -2.22%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 14:15
BetAnything🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -5.44%E -1.88%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -8.78%E -3.14%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.00%E -2.22%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 21:55
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -8.70%E -3.11%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -6.18%E -2.15%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -6.00%E -2.22%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 21:55
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -8.70%E -3.11%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -8.78%E -3.14%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.00%E -2.22%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 21:40
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -10.33%E -3.76%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -8.78%E -3.14%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -6.00%E -2.22%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 21:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.35%EV -13.59%E -5.13%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.94%EV -7.16%E -2.51%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.71%EV -6.00%E -2.22%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 21:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.54%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.93%EV -10.41%E -3.79%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.54%EV -6.00%E -2.22%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-14 21:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.32%EV -14.24%E -5.42%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.24%EV -8.78%E -3.14%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -6.00%E -2.22%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-14 21:45
BetOnline.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.75%EV -2.18%E -0.726%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.84%EV -5.53%E -1.91%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.41%EV -6.35%E -2.36%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 12:05
LowVig.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.75%EV -2.18%E -0.726%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.84%EV -5.53%E -1.91%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.41%EV -6.35%E -2.36%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 12:04
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -5.44%E -1.88%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -2.27%E -0.756%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -7.74%E -2.92%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 21:55
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -8.70%E -3.11%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.37%EV -15.30%E -5.88%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.72%EV -7.74%E -2.92%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-14 21:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.97%EV -15.30%E -5.88%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.33%EV -7.74%E -2.92%K -4.69%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-14 14:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.64%EV -6.74%E -2.36%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.86%EV -4.55%E -1.55%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.50%EV -8.44%E -3.21%K -5.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 21:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 32.07%EV -9.35%E -3.36%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.03%EV -14.65%E -5.59%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.90%EV -8.44%E -3.21%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-14 21:31
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.11%EV -4.79%E -1.64%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.11%EV -4.87%E -1.67%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.78%EV -8.78%E -3.35%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 21:35
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.11%EV -4.79%E -1.64%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.11%EV -4.87%E -1.67%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.78%EV -8.78%E -3.35%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 21:34
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.27%EV -5.44%E -1.88%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.73%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.00%EV -9.48%E -3.65%K -5.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 21:49
Everygame🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.27%EV -5.44%E -1.88%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.73%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.00%EV -9.48%E -3.65%K -5.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 21:34
SportsBet🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.33%EV -6.42%E -2.24%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -5.53%E -1.91%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.68%EV -9.48%E -3.65%K -5.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 21:50
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -7.07%E -2.48%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -5.53%E -1.91%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -9.48%E -3.65%K -5.92%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-14 21:40
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -8.70%E -3.11%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -8.78%E -3.14%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -12.96%E -5.18%K -8.64%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-14 21:50
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.33%E -3.76%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -8.78%E -3.14%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -12.96%E -5.18%K -8.64%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-14 21:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.88%EV -13.59%E -5.13%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.27%EV -12.04%E -4.46%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.85%EV -12.96%E -5.18%K -8.64%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-14 21:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.25%EV -10.33%E -3.76%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.38%EV -18.56%E -7.42%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.38%EV -12.96%E -5.18%K -8.64%G +0.000%16.4%2026-03-14 20:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 32.37%EV -16.85%E -6.61%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 31.75%EV -15.30%E -5.88%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 35.89%EV -19.92%E -8.66%K -15.33%G +0.000%21.2%2026-03-14 21:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.78%1.3%2026-03-14 21:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.78%1.3%2026-03-14 21:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.78%1.3%2026-03-14 21:50
Matchbook◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.77%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.94%1.5%2026-03-14 21:55
Smarkets◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.65%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.60%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.75%2.1%2026-03-14 21:50
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 31.72%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.69%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.59%4.1%2026-03-14 21:50