Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Platense v Talleres

Início: 2026-08-03 22:00 UTC

Final: Platense 0–4 Talleres

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

38 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Platense (Local)

Previsão 36.17%2.76odd justa
EV +1.64%
Vantagem +0.583%
Kelly +0.906%
Crescimento +0.015%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.81

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
34.48%36.19%36.27%38.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.352.572.582.8142.55%38.86%38.83%35.59%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Talleres (Visitante)

Previsão 30.18%3.31odd justa
EV +2.92%
Vantagem +0.855%
Kelly +1.21%
Crescimento +0.035%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.41

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.15%30.24%30.06%31.73%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.903.063.053.4134.48%32.65%32.79%29.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 33.65%2.97odd justa
EV -2.42%
Vantagem -0.834%
Kelly -1.27%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.90

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
32.15%33.57%33.67%35.62%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.602.772.772.9038.46%36.16%36.04%34.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Platense (Local): 36.17%; Talleres (Visitante): 30.18%; Empate: 33.65%. Para Talleres (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.31. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.41, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.92%.

Odds das casas de apostas (38 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.94%EV -8.49%E -3.36%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.15%EV +2.92%E +0.855%K +1.21%G +0.035%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.92%EV -4.77%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-03 21:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.95%EV -2.70%E -1.00%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.76%EV -1.91%E -0.588%K -0.850%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.29%EV -5.11%E -1.81%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-03 21:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.95%EV -2.70%E -1.00%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.76%EV -1.91%E -0.588%K -0.850%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.29%EV -5.11%E -1.81%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-03 21:50
BetAnything🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 34.48%EV +1.64%E +0.583%K +0.906%G +0.015%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.90%EV -2.21%E -0.683%K -0.988%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.62%EV -8.48%E -3.12%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-03 21:55
Pinnacle🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.83%EV -2.34%E -0.867%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.86%EV -2.21%E -0.683%K -0.988%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.31%EV -5.11%E -1.81%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-03 21:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -5.96%E -2.29%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -3.42%E -1.07%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -7.47%E -2.72%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-03 16:05
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -7.77%E -3.05%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -3.42%E -1.07%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.78%E -2.07%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-03 16:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -7.77%E -3.05%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -3.42%E -1.07%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -7.47%E -2.72%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-03 16:04
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.65%EV -4.15%E -1.57%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -4.93%E -1.57%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.36%EV -7.47%E -2.72%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-03 21:55
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -5.96%E -2.29%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -4.93%E -1.57%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -9.15%E -3.39%K -5.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-03 21:55
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -5.96%E -2.29%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -6.44%E -2.08%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%EV -2.42%E -0.834%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-03 19:04
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.96%E -2.29%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -6.44%E -2.08%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.78%E -2.07%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-03 21:53
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -4.15%E -1.57%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.44%E -2.08%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -9.15%E -3.39%K -5.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-03 21:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.05%EV -15.00%E -6.38%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.84%EV -6.44%E -2.08%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -9.15%E -3.39%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-03 21:35
NordicBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.60%EV -3.06%E -1.14%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -7.95%E -2.61%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.12%EV -3.09%E -1.07%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 21:50
Betsson🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.60%EV -3.06%E -1.14%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -7.95%E -2.61%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.12%EV -3.09%E -1.07%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 21:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -4.15%E -1.57%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -7.95%E -2.61%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -5.78%E -2.07%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-03 21:55
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -4.15%E -1.57%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -7.95%E -2.61%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -5.78%E -2.07%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-03 21:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.12%EV -11.38%E -4.65%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.82%EV -7.95%E -2.61%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.07%EV -7.47%E -2.72%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-03 16:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.14%EV -13.19%E -5.50%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -7.95%E -2.61%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.64%EV -10.83%E -4.09%K -6.56%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-03 21:33
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -4.15%E -1.57%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -9.46%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -4.10%E -1.44%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-03 21:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.89%EV -5.23%E -2.00%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -9.46%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.76%EV -3.43%E -1.19%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-03 21:55
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -5.23%E -2.00%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -9.46%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.47%E -2.72%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-03 21:54
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -9.57%E -3.83%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -9.46%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -5.78%E -2.07%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-01 22:24
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -9.57%E -3.83%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -9.46%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -5.78%E -2.07%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-03 18:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.47%EV -7.77%E -3.05%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.15%EV -9.46%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.39%EV -11.50%E -4.37%K -7.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-03 21:45
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -9.57%E -3.83%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -9.46%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -11.84%E -4.52%K -7.31%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-03 20:05
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -9.57%E -3.83%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -9.46%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -12.51%E -4.81%K -7.82%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-03 21:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -13.19%E -5.50%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -9.46%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -9.15%E -3.39%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-03 16:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -7.77%E -3.05%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.29%EV -10.06%E -3.38%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -2.42%E -0.834%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-03 21:49
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.96%E -2.29%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -10.97%E -3.72%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.66%EV -4.10%E -1.44%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-03 21:54
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.03%EV -7.77%E -3.05%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -10.97%E -3.72%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -5.78%E -2.07%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-03 10:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.60%EV -7.77%E -3.05%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -10.97%E -3.72%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.62%EV -9.15%E -3.39%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-03 21:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.28%EV -9.57%E -3.83%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -10.97%E -3.72%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -7.47%E -2.72%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-03 10:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 36.24%EV -12.47%E -5.15%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.03%EV -11.87%E -4.07%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.73%EV -12.51%E -4.81%K -7.82%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-03 16:20
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -5.96%E -2.29%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.48%E -4.30%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -5.78%E -2.07%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-03 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.63%EV -7.77%E -3.05%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.33%EV -12.48%E -4.30%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.04%EV -7.47%E -2.72%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-03 21:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -7.77%E -3.05%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -12.48%E -4.30%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.45%EV -9.15%E -3.39%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-03 21:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.61%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.77%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.62%0.3%2026-08-03 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.61%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.77%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.62%0.3%2026-08-03 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.61%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.77%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.62%0.3%2026-08-03 21:55
Smarkets2.78I 35.97%NM 35.45%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.33%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.22%1.5%2026-08-03 21:50
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 35.97%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.07%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.96%3.0%2026-08-03 21:15