The School of Odds
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Platense v Gimnasia Mendoza

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 18:00 UTC

Final: Platense 1–1 Gimnasia Mendoza

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Platense (Local)

Prediction 37.75%2.65fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.561%
Kelly -0.909%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.87%37.85%37.79%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.392.452.6154.05%41.83%40.82%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit)

Prediction 27.80%3.60fair odd
EV +13.99%
Edge +3.41%
Kelly +4.51%
Growth +0.631%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.90%27.79%27.75%30.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.363.384.1034.72%29.72%29.59%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.45%2.90fair odd
EV -0.109%
Edge -0.038%
Kelly -0.057%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.95%34.36%34.46%35.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.722.712.9040.00%36.77%36.90%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Platense (Local): 37.75%; Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit): 27.80%; Draw: 34.45%. For Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.60. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.99%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -20.72%E -9.87%K -18.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV +13.99%E +3.41%K +4.51%G +0.631%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.38%EV -0.109%E -0.038%K -0.057%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 08:04
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -15.05%E -6.69%K -12.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV +4.26%E +1.13%K +1.55%G +0.066%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -5.28%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 17:26
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -13.17%E -5.72%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV +1.48%E +0.404%K +0.557%G +0.008%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -1.83%E -0.643%K -0.990%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 17:30
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -13.17%E -5.72%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV +1.48%E +0.404%K +0.557%G +0.008%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -1.83%E -0.643%K -0.990%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 17:30
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -13.92%E -6.11%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV +1.48%E +0.404%K +0.557%G +0.008%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -1.83%E -0.643%K -0.990%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 17:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -16.94%E -7.70%K -14.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -2.69%E -0.770%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -5.28%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 17:29
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -16.94%E -7.70%K -14.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -2.69%E -0.770%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -5.28%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 17:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.15%EV -17.70%E -8.12%K -15.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -2.69%E -0.770%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -7.00%E -2.59%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-12 17:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 45.17%EV -30.16%E -16.30%K -35.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.88%EV -2.69%E -0.770%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.95%EV -7.00%E -2.59%K -4.12%G +0.000%19.7%2026-03-27 06:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.44%EV -7.88%E -3.23%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.95%EV -3.25%E -0.934%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.61%EV -6.65%E -2.46%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 17:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.20%EV -7.50%E -3.06%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -4.08%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -7.00%E -2.59%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 17:30
Pinnacle🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 37.07%EV -1.46%E -0.561%K -0.909%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.13%EV -4.36%E -1.27%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.80%EV -4.24%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-12 17:30
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -5.62%E -2.25%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -5.28%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-12 17:30
Betsson🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -6.37%E -2.57%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.52%EV -6.31%E -2.32%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 17:29
NordicBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -6.37%E -2.57%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.52%EV -6.31%E -2.32%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 17:29
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -7.50%E -3.06%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.28%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 17:30
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -7.50%E -3.06%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -7.00%E -2.59%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 17:29
LowVig.ag🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -2.60%E -1.01%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.18%EV -6.03%E -1.78%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.89%EV -5.96%E -2.18%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 17:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -2.60%E -1.01%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.18%EV -6.03%E -1.78%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.89%EV -5.96%E -2.18%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 17:30
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.42%EV -5.62%E -2.25%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.86%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.65%EV -7.00%E -2.59%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 17:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -5.62%E -2.25%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -7.00%E -2.59%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 17:30
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -5.62%E -2.25%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -7.00%E -2.59%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 17:29
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -5.62%E -2.25%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -9.75%E -3.72%K -6.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 17:29
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -11.28%E -4.80%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -5.28%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-12 17:29
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -5.62%E -2.25%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -9.65%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -9.75%E -3.72%K -6.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 17:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -11.28%E -4.80%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -9.65%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.00%E -2.59%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 17:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -11.28%E -4.80%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -9.65%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.00%E -2.59%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 17:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.62%EV -12.41%E -5.35%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -9.65%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.81%EV -8.72%E -3.29%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-12 17:29
NetBet (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.16%EV -16.19%E -7.29%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.75%EV -9.65%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.09%EV -12.16%E -4.77%K -7.85%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-12 17:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.24%EV -13.17%E -5.72%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.92%EV -12.43%E -3.94%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.83%EV -10.44%E -4.02%K -6.53%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-12 17:29
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -1.84%E -0.708%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -13.82%E -4.46%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -3.55%E -1.27%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 17:29
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -3.73%E -1.46%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -16.60%E -5.53%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -3.55%E -1.27%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 17:30
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -5.62%E -2.25%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -16.60%E -5.53%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.00%E -2.59%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 17:30
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -7.50%E -3.06%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -19.38%E -6.68%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -7.00%E -2.59%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-12 17:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.87%EV -5.62%E -2.25%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.27%EV -19.93%E -6.92%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.87%EV -13.89%E -5.55%K -9.26%G +0.000%14.7%2026-04-12 17:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.42%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.27%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.30%0.5%2026-04-12 17:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.46%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.47%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.07%1.1%2026-04-12 17:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.46%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.47%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.07%1.1%2026-04-12 17:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.05%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.76%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.19%1.5%2026-04-12 17:30
Smarkets◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.31%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.53%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.16%2.3%2026-04-12 17:30