Language:English
Platense v Boca Juniors
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Platense (Local)
Prediction 18.30%5.46fair odd
EV +6.70%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.093%
assuming max odds 5.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.45%18.32%18.29%20.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.025.005.8322.22%19.91%20.00%17.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Boca Juniors (Visit)
Prediction 52.56%1.90fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -4.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.08%52.53%52.61%53.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.771.771.8360.24%56.64%56.34%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.14%3.43fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -0.984%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.35%29.15%29.10%30.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.163.173.3233.33%31.65%31.60%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Platense (Local): 18.30%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 52.56%; Draw: 29.14%. For Platense (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.46. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.83, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.70%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.83I 17.15%NM 16.45%EV +6.70%E +1.15%K +1.39%G +0.093% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.87%EV -6.44%E -3.62%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.69%EV -5.89%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-16 00:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.58%EV +0.660%E +0.120%K +0.147%G +0.001% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.12%EV -4.34%E -2.38%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.30%EV -3.85%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-15 23:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.58%EV +0.660%E +0.120%K +0.147%G +0.001% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.12%EV -4.34%E -2.38%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.30%EV -3.85%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-15 23:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.88%EV -1.17%E -0.217%K -0.266%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.04%EV -4.34%E -2.38%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 29.08%EV -3.27%E -0.984%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-16 00:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.60%EV -1.17%E -0.217%K -0.266%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.22%EV -4.34%E -2.38%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.17%EV -8.22%E -2.61%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 00:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.60%EV -1.17%E -0.217%K -0.266%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.22%EV -4.34%E -2.38%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.17%EV -8.22%E -2.61%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 00:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.11%EV -1.17%E -0.217%K -0.266%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.09%EV -8.54%E -4.91%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%EV -9.68%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-15 23:53 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.62%EV -3.00%E -0.566%K -0.698%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.75%EV -6.97%E -3.94%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -8.22%E -2.61%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 23:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -3.92%E -0.746%K -0.921%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -5.39%E -2.99%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -6.76%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 23:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -3.92%E -0.746%K -0.921%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.76%EV -6.44%E -3.62%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -6.76%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-16 00:03 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.17%EV -4.83%E -0.929%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -5.91%E -3.30%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%EV -5.31%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 00:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.29%EV -6.66%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -6.44%E -3.62%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.33%EV -7.35%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-15 23:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -8.49%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -5.39%E -2.99%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -5.31%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 00:03 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -8.49%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -5.39%E -2.99%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -5.31%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 00:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -8.49%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -5.39%E -2.99%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -5.31%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-15 23:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -8.49%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -5.39%E -2.99%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -5.31%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-15 23:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -8.49%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.90%EV -6.97%E -3.94%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -3.85%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 00:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -8.49%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.02%EV -5.39%E -2.99%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -6.76%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-15 23:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -8.49%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.02%EV -5.39%E -2.99%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -6.76%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-15 23:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -8.49%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.43%EV -6.97%E -3.94%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -6.76%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-15 23:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -8.49%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.01%EV -9.07%E -5.24%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.99%EV -12.59%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-15 23:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -8.49%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.01%EV -9.07%E -5.24%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.99%EV -12.59%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-16 00:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -8.49%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 53.55%EV -12.75%E -7.68%K -19.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -9.68%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-15 23:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.05%EV -9.41%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 52.86%EV -11.17%E -6.61%K -16.19%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 29.10%EV -10.55%E -3.44%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-16 00:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV -10.32%E -2.11%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.00%EV -6.97%E -3.94%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.22%EV -8.22%E -2.61%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-15 23:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -10.32%E -2.11%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -8.02%E -4.58%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.72%EV -6.76%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-16 00:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.02%EV -11.24%E -2.32%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.24%EV -5.39%E -2.99%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.68%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-16 00:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -12.15%E -2.53%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.26%EV -6.97%E -3.94%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -5.31%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-15 23:57 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.90%EV -12.15%E -2.53%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.75%EV -9.59%E -5.58%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.35%EV -6.76%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-16 00:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.61%EV -12.15%E -2.53%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.62%EV -9.07%E -5.24%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -12.59%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-15 23:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.36%EV -12.15%E -2.53%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.76%EV -12.22%E -7.32%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.89%EV -11.13%E -3.65%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-16 00:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -13.07%E -2.75%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.03%EV -5.39%E -2.99%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -9.68%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-15 23:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.98%EV -13.07%E -2.75%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.41%EV -9.59%E -5.58%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -8.22%E -2.61%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-16 00:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.02%EV -13.98%E -2.97%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.59%EV -10.65%E -6.26%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.38%EV -8.22%E -2.61%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-16 00:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -15.81%E -3.44%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.35%EV -9.59%E -5.58%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -12.59%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-15 23:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -15.81%E -3.44%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.35%EV -9.59%E -5.58%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -12.59%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-15 23:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.09%EV -15.81%E -3.44%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.65%EV -10.65%E -6.26%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%EV -12.59%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-15 23:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -17.64%E -3.92%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%EV -3.81%E -2.08%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -9.68%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-16 00:08 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.47% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.25% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.29% | 0.4% | 2026-08-16 00:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.47% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.25% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.29% | 0.4% | 2026-08-16 00:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.47% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.25% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.29% | 0.4% | 2026-08-16 00:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.34% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.15% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51% | 1.2% | 2026-08-16 00:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.47% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.37% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.17% | 3.0% | 2026-08-16 00:00 |
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