The School of Odds
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Platense v Boca Juniors

2026-08-16 00:15 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Platense (Local)

Prediction 28.77%3.48fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.66%28.77%28.46%29.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.143.113.3434.48%31.84%32.15%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boca Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 38.97%2.57fair odd
EV -5.29%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -3.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.33%38.97%39.13%39.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.312.332.4346.08%43.26%42.92%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.26%3.10fair odd
EV -4.84%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -2.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.44%32.26%32.41%32.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.802.802.9537.74%35.65%35.71%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Platense (Local): 28.77%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 38.97%; Draw: 32.26%. For Platense (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.48. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.34, with an expected value of -3.91%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet3.34I 29.94%NM 28.45%EV -3.91%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.11%EV -5.29%E -2.18%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.44%EV -5.49%E -1.87%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 19:00
Bovada3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.06%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -6.46%E -2.69%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -6.46%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-02 23:09
Codere (IT)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -5.06%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.09%EV -8.02%E -3.40%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.95%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 18:59
Marathon Bet3.28I 30.49%NM 28.43%EV -5.64%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.18%EV -7.24%E -3.04%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.38%EV -7.10%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 18:59
SportsBet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -9.38%E -2.98%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -6.46%E -2.69%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 18:59
Betclic (FR)3.12I 32.05%NM 27.66%EV -10.24%E -3.28%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 39.77%EV -15.43%E -7.11%K -13.19%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.57%EV -14.52%E -5.48%K -8.80%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-02 18:59
FanDuel3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -10.82%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -6.46%E -2.69%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-02 18:59
Winamax (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -10.82%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.85%EV -14.26%E -6.48%K -11.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.88%EV -11.29%E -4.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-02 19:00
Unibet (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.19%EV -10.82%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.84%EV -12.31%E -5.47%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.97%EV -14.52%E -5.48%K -8.80%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-02 19:00
Paddy Power3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -13.69%E -4.56%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -10.36%E -4.50%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-02 19:00
Winamax (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 28.78%EV -13.69%E -4.56%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.24%EV -14.26%E -6.48%K -11.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.98%EV -12.91%E -4.78%K -7.59%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-02 19:00
Sky Bet2.90I 34.48%NM 29.74%EV -16.57%E -5.71%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.33%EV -12.31%E -5.47%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.94%EV -12.91%E -4.78%K -7.59%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-02 19:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55