The School of Odds
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Platense v Barracas Central

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Platense (Local)

Prediction 50.81%1.97fair odd
EV -0.929%
Edge -0.476%
Kelly -0.978%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.77%50.68%50.87%53.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.831.851.9563.29%54.58%54.05%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barracas Central (Visit)

Prediction 17.88%5.59fair odd
EV +3.14%
Edge +0.544%
Kelly +0.658%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 5.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.64%17.98%17.89%21.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.105.055.005.7724.39%19.82%20.00%17.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.32%3.19fair odd
EV +3.04%
Edge +0.924%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 3.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.13%31.34%31.25%32.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.932.953.2938.46%34.09%33.90%30.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Platense (Local): 50.81%; Barracas Central (Visit): 17.88%; Draw: 31.32%. For Barracas Central (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.59. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.87%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.06I 19.76%NM 18.96%EV -9.55%E -1.89%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.17%EV +3.04%E +0.924%K +1.33%G +0.040%4.2%2026-02-21 19:55
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.04%EV -4.99%E -2.67%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.79%EV -2.91%E -0.939%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-21 19:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.05%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -4.48%E -1.47%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-21 19:55
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.38%EV -4.49%E -2.39%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.77I 17.33%NM 16.74%EV +3.14%E +0.544%K +0.658%G +0.021%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.88%EV -5.10%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-21 19:50
Unibet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.76%EV -1.44%E -0.741%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -14.20%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.53%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-21 19:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.89%EV -1.94%E -1.01%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -14.20%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.45%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 19:40
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.87%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.76%EV -5.26%E -0.993%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 19:40
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.87%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.76%EV -5.26%E -0.993%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 19:40
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -7.03%E -3.84%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.15%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-21 19:40
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.04%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 19:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.04%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 19:45
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.04%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 19:45
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.61%EV -7.03%E -3.84%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 19:55
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.85%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -15.09%E -3.18%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 19:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.63%EV -8.55%E -4.75%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -14.20%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-21 19:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.89%EV -4.99%E -2.67%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.84%EV +0.996%E +0.176%K +0.214%G +0.002%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.26%EV -7.61%E -2.58%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 19:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.89%EV -4.99%E -2.67%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.84%EV +0.996%E +0.176%K +0.214%G +0.002%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.26%EV -7.61%E -2.58%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 19:30
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.89%EV -4.99%E -2.67%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.84%EV +0.996%E +0.176%K +0.214%G +0.002%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.26%EV -7.61%E -2.58%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 19:30
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -1.94%E -1.01%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -14.20%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.82%EV -7.61%E -2.58%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 19:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%EV -2.96%E -1.55%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -15.09%E -3.18%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -7.61%E -2.58%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 19:40
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.77%EV -8.55%E -4.75%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.64%EV +0.102%E +0.018%K +0.022%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -7.61%E -2.58%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 19:45
Everygame🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.07%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -7.61%E -2.58%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 19:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.93%EV -7.03%E -3.84%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -3.47%E -0.643%K -0.789%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.81%EV -8.24%E -2.81%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 19:40
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.52%EV -7.03%E -3.84%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.61%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.88%EV -9.17%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-21 19:40
Bet Right🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.79%EV -8.04%E -4.44%K -9.93%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.51%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -9.17%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 19:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.34%EV -11.60%E -6.67%K -15.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.46%EV -19.56%E -4.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.20%EV -9.17%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%14.2%2026-02-21 19:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 53.46%EV -19.73%E -12.49%K -34.01%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 17.42%EV -13.30%E -2.74%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.13%EV -9.17%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%18.4%2026-02-21 19:55
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%EV -7.03%E -3.84%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -1.69%E -0.306%K -0.375%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -9.80%E -3.40%K -5.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-21 19:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.98%EV -5.50%E -2.96%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.38%EV -15.99%E -3.40%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.63%EV -9.80%E -3.40%K -5.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-21 19:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.98%EV -5.50%E -2.96%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.38%EV -15.99%E -3.40%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.63%EV -9.80%E -3.40%K -5.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-21 19:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.21%EV -8.55%E -4.75%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -10.74%E -3.77%K -5.81%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-21 19:55
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.93%EV -8.55%E -4.75%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.97%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.10%EV -12.31%E -4.40%K -6.84%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-21 19:45
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.93%EV -8.55%E -4.75%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.97%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.10%EV -12.31%E -4.40%K -6.84%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-21 19:45
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.77%EV -0.929%E -0.476%K -0.978%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -26.71%E -6.51%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.46%EV -13.87%E -5.04%K -7.93%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-21 14:54
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.07%EV -12.11%E -7.00%K -16.58%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.43%EV -15.99%E -3.40%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.50%EV -13.87%E -5.04%K -7.93%G +0.000%15.4%2026-02-21 19:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.38%EV -12.11%E -7.00%K -16.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.98%EV -19.56%E -4.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.64%EV -15.44%E -5.72%K -9.08%G +0.000%17.1%2026-02-21 19:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 50.40%EV -15.66%E -9.44%K -23.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.43%EV -14.20%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.18%EV -18.57%E -7.14%K -11.61%G +0.000%19.5%2026-02-21 19:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.91I 52.36%NM 52.21%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.62%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.17%0.3%2026-02-21 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.96%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-02-21 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.96%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-02-21 19:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.96%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-02-21 19:50
Smarkets◎1.90I 52.63%NM 51.83%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.41%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.76%1.6%2026-02-21 19:55