Language:English
Newells Old Boys v Lanus
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Newells Old Boys (Local)
Prediction 36.28%2.76fair odd
EV +1.22%
Edge +0.438%
Kelly +0.683%
Growth +0.008%
assuming max odds 2.79
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.75%36.28%36.32%38.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.572.602.7942.55%38.94%38.46%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lanus (Visit)
Prediction 31.58%3.17fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -0.470%
Kelly -0.692%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.45%31.68%31.54%33.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.892.903.1238.46%34.62%34.48%32.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 32.14%3.11fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.01
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.92%32.04%32.14%32.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.882.903.0137.04%34.74%34.48%33.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newells Old Boys (Local): 36.28%; Lanus (Visit): 31.58%; Draw: 32.14%. For Newells Old Boys (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.76. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.79, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.22%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.39%EV +1.22%E +0.438%K +0.683%G +0.008% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.09%EV -8.42%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.52%EV -5.19%E -1.76%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -0.229%E -0.083%K -0.131%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -11.57%E -4.13%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.80%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -0.229%E -0.083%K -0.131%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -11.57%E -4.13%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.80%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.14%EV -2.04%E -0.757%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -13.15%E -4.78%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -8.40%E -2.95%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.27%EV -3.13%E -1.17%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.55%EV -3.05%E -0.992%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 32.18%EV -3.26%E -1.08%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.47%EV -3.86%E -1.46%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.98%EV -1.47%E -0.470%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.54%EV -4.55%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.47%EV -3.86%E -1.46%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.98%EV -1.47%E -0.470%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.54%EV -4.55%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.64%EV -3.86%E -1.46%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -6.84%E -2.32%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.34%EV -6.16%E -2.11%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.64%EV -3.86%E -1.46%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -6.84%E -2.32%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.34%EV -6.16%E -2.11%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.91%EV -4.58%E -1.74%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.66%EV -16.31%E -6.15%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -11.62%E -4.22%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.91%EV -4.58%E -1.74%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.66%EV -16.31%E -6.15%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -11.62%E -4.22%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -5.67%E -2.18%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -5.19%E -1.76%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-03 19:33 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -5.67%E -2.18%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -5.19%E -1.76%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.67%E -2.18%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -6.84%E -2.32%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -5.19%E -1.76%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-03 19:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -5.67%E -2.18%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -6.80%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-03 19:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -5.67%E -2.18%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -6.80%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.67%E -2.18%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -8.42%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -6.80%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -5.67%E -2.18%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -9.99%E -3.51%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -6.80%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.75%EV -5.67%E -2.18%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.75%EV -17.89%E -6.88%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.50%EV -13.23%E -4.90%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-10-03 19:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.22%EV -6.76%E -2.63%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.45%EV -6.52%E -2.20%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.32%EV -7.44%E -2.58%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-03 19:43 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.49%E -2.94%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -6.84%E -2.32%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -5.19%E -1.76%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 19:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.45%EV -7.49%E -2.94%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -6.84%E -2.32%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -6.80%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -7.49%E -2.94%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.60%EV -8.40%E -2.95%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-03 19:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.03%EV -7.49%E -2.94%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -11.57%E -4.13%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -5.19%E -1.76%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-03 19:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -9.30%E -3.72%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -8.42%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -3.58%E -1.19%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-03 19:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -9.30%E -3.72%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -8.42%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -3.58%E -1.19%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-03 19:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.30%E -3.72%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.73%EV -9.05%E -3.14%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.73%EV -7.44%E -2.58%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.30%E -3.72%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -11.57%E -4.13%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -6.80%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.30%E -3.72%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -9.05%E -3.14%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -10.01%E -3.58%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-03 19:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.30%E -3.72%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -9.05%E -3.14%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -10.01%E -3.58%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-03 19:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -11.11%E -4.54%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -8.42%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -8.40%E -2.95%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.11%E -4.54%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.03%EV -9.05%E -3.14%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.50%EV -11.62%E -4.22%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-03 19:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -11.11%E -4.54%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.39%EV -13.15%E -4.78%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.25%EV -8.40%E -2.95%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 36.39%EV -12.20%E -5.04%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.23%EV -10.94%E -3.88%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 32.38%EV -12.58%E -4.63%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-10-03 19:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -12.93%E -5.39%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -6.80%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-03 19:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.55%EV -12.93%E -5.39%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 31.55%EV -12.20%E -4.39%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.90%EV -11.62%E -4.22%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-10-03 19:33 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.12%EV -14.74%E -6.27%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.16%EV -11.57%E -4.13%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.72%EV -11.62%E -4.22%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-10-03 19:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.30% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.61% | 0.5% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.30% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.61% | 0.5% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.30% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.61% | 0.5% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45% | 1.0% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.39% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.33% | 2.1% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |