The School of Odds
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Newells Old Boys v Lanus

2026-10-03 20:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newells Old Boys (Local)

Prediction 32.18%3.11fair odd
EV -5.72%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -2.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.71%32.18%32.15%32.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.792.802.9337.74%35.85%35.71%34.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lanus (Visit)

Prediction 35.82%2.79fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.17%35.82%35.53%36.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.332.502.502.7042.92%40.03%40.00%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.01%3.12fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -1.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.14%32.01%32.33%32.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.832.853.0037.74%35.32%35.09%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Newells Old Boys (Local): 32.18%; Lanus (Visit): 35.82%; Draw: 32.01%. For Lanus (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.79. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.70, with an expected value of -3.30%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.41%EV -5.72%E -1.95%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.17%EV -3.30%E -1.22%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.41%EV -6.22%E -2.12%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 19:30
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -6.69%E -2.31%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -8.67%E -3.40%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -3.98%E -1.33%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 15:30
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -6.69%E -2.31%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -8.67%E -3.40%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -3.98%E -1.33%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 14:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -6.69%E -2.31%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -8.78%E -3.08%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 14:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -7.33%E -2.54%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.09%E -1.92%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -7.82%E -2.72%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:25
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -9.90%E -3.54%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.46%E -4.18%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -7.82%E -2.72%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 15:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.61%EV -13.12%E -4.86%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.94%EV -12.25%E -5.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.45%EV -10.38%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-13 14:50
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.19%EV -13.12%E -4.86%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.21%EV -14.04%E -5.85%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.60%EV -11.98%E -4.36%K -6.85%G +0.000%15.1%2026-09-13 15:01
Betclic (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 31.71%EV -14.09%E -5.28%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 36.34%EV -16.55%E -7.10%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.95%EV -15.18%E -5.73%K -9.20%G +0.000%18.1%2026-09-13 14:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.60%EV -14.73%E -5.56%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.99%EV -14.04%E -5.85%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.41%EV -11.98%E -4.36%K -6.85%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-13 14:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 31.97%EV -14.73%E -5.56%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.05%EV -15.83%E -6.74%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.97%EV -15.18%E -5.73%K -9.20%G +0.000%18.0%2026-09-13 14:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.