The School of Odds
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Newells Old Boys v Deportivo Riestra

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 22:00 UTC

Final: Newells Old Boys 2–0 Deportivo Riestra

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newells Old Boys (Local)

Prediction 33.37%3.00fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -0.756%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.91%33.39%33.34%34.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.772.782.9338.46%36.11%35.97%34.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportivo Riestra (Visit)

Prediction 32.28%3.10fair odd
EV +2.65%
Edge +0.833%
Kelly +1.21%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 3.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.18%32.39%32.35%34.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.872.853.1838.46%34.81%35.09%31.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.35%2.91fair odd
EV -1.08%
Edge -0.375%
Kelly -0.574%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.31%34.22%34.31%35.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.692.702.8840.00%37.17%37.04%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newells Old Boys (Local): 33.37%; Deportivo Riestra (Visit): 32.28%; Draw: 34.35%. For Deportivo Riestra (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.65%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.53%EV -7.22%E -2.60%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.18%EV +2.65%E +0.833%K +1.21%G +0.032%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.29%EV -6.57%E -2.42%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 21:49
Pinnacle🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 33.03%EV -2.22%E -0.756%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.15%EV -2.84%E -0.943%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.81%EV -4.51%E -1.62%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 21:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 33.07%EV -2.55%E -0.873%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.19%EV -3.16%E -1.05%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.74%EV -4.51%E -1.62%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 21:43
BetOnline.ag🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 33.07%EV -2.55%E -0.873%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.19%EV -3.16%E -1.05%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.74%EV -4.51%E -1.62%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 21:44
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.62%EV -3.16%E -1.05%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.50%EV -5.54%E -2.02%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 21:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -3.16%E -1.05%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -8.98%E -3.39%K -5.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 21:30
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -3.16%E -1.05%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -8.98%E -3.39%K -5.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 21:24
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.78%EV -4.78%E -1.62%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.73%EV -7.26%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 21:45
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.78%EV -4.78%E -1.62%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.73%EV -7.26%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 21:44
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.99%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -4.78%E -1.62%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.90%EV -9.67%E -3.68%K -5.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 21:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.15%EV -8.89%E -3.26%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.71%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.15%EV -6.23%E -2.28%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 21:54
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -4.89%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -6.39%E -2.20%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -5.54%E -2.02%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 21:44
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -4.89%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.43%EV -6.39%E -2.20%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.57%EV -6.57%E -2.42%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 21:44
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -4.89%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.43%EV -6.39%E -2.20%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.57%EV -6.57%E -2.42%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 21:45
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.39%E -2.20%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.54%E -2.02%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 21:55
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.39%E -2.20%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -3.83%E -1.37%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 21:54
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -7.04%E -2.44%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -10.01%E -3.82%K -6.18%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 21:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -3.22%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -8.00%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -5.54%E -2.02%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 21:34
BetAnything🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -4.89%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -8.00%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -5.54%E -2.02%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 21:54
theScore Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -4.89%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -8.00%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -7.26%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 21:29
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -8.00%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.14%EV -7.26%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 21:34
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -8.00%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -7.26%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 21:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.85%EV -12.23%E -4.65%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.24%EV -8.00%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.91%EV -12.41%E -4.87%K -8.01%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 21:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.85%EV -12.23%E -4.65%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.24%EV -8.00%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.91%EV -12.41%E -4.87%K -8.01%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 21:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -4.22%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.61%EV -9.62%E -3.44%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.61%EV -3.83%E -1.37%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 21:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -9.62%E -3.44%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.26%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 21:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -9.62%E -3.44%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.15%EV -8.98%E -3.39%K -5.44%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-15 21:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.24%EV -9.62%E -3.44%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.32%EV -9.67%E -3.68%K -5.93%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 21:49
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -9.62%E -3.44%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.41%EV -10.01%E -3.82%K -6.18%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 21:34
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.30%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.11%EV -9.62%E -3.44%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.58%EV -10.70%E -4.11%K -6.69%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-15 21:44
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.72%EV -11.56%E -4.36%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -9.62%E -3.44%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.37%EV -10.70%E -4.11%K -6.69%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 21:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.69%EV -13.23%E -5.09%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.28%EV -9.62%E -3.44%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.03%EV -14.13%E -5.65%K -9.42%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-15 21:24
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -11.23%E -4.08%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -1.08%E -0.375%K -0.574%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 21:34
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.54%EV -4.89%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -11.23%E -4.08%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.54%E -2.02%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 21:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.74%EV -11.56%E -4.36%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -11.23%E -4.08%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.74%EV -8.98%E -3.39%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-15 21:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.27%EV -11.56%E -4.36%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.42%EV -12.20%E -4.49%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 34.31%EV -11.73%E -4.56%K -7.47%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-15 21:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.37%EV -16.07%E -6.18%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.72%EV -8.98%E -3.39%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 21:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.62%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.10%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.29%0.5%2026-08-15 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.77%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.21%0.7%2026-08-15 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.30%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.19%0.8%2026-08-15 21:55
Smarkets◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.59%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.13%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.28%2.0%2026-08-15 21:55
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.35%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.29%2.0%2026-08-15 21:49

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