The School of Odds
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Newells Old Boys v Deportivo Riestra

2026-08-15 22:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newells Old Boys (Local)

Prediction 45.32%2.21fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -3.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.13%45.32%45.13%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.002.012.1353.19%49.90%49.63%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportivo Riestra (Visit)

Prediction 22.76%4.39fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -0.499%
Kelly -0.650%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.61%22.76%23.11%24.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.943.984.3028.57%25.39%25.16%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.93%3.13fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -2.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.12%31.93%31.76%32.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.832.873.0037.74%35.27%34.90%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Newells Old Boys (Local): 45.32%; Deportivo Riestra (Visit): 22.76%; Draw: 31.93%. For Deportivo Riestra (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.39. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.30, with an expected value of -2.15%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.13I 46.95%NM 44.58%EV -3.48%E -1.63%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.33%EV -7.38%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.08%EV -5.50%E -1.86%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 19:54
Bovada2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -4.84%E -2.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -7.41%E -2.56%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 23:09
Marathon Bet2.09I 47.85%NM 44.63%EV -5.29%E -2.53%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.05%EV -7.09%E -2.44%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 19:44
SportsBet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.18%EV -5.74%E -2.76%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -4.22%E -1.41%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 18:59
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -7.10%E -3.46%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -4.22%E -1.41%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 18:59
Codere (IT)2.03I 49.26%NM 45.78%EV -8.01%E -3.94%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.61%EV -2.15%E -0.499%K -0.650%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -9.01%E -3.16%K -4.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 18:59
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 45.03%EV -9.37%E -4.68%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -13.52%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.27%EV -8.05%E -2.80%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-02 19:00
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 44.13%EV -11.63%E -5.97%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.58%EV -20.35%E -5.81%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.29%EV -12.20%E -4.44%K -6.97%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-02 18:58
Winamax (DE)1.92I 52.08%NM 45.65%EV -12.99%E -6.77%K -14.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.47%EV -11.25%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.87%EV -12.20%E -4.44%K -6.97%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-02 19:00
Unibet (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 45.24%EV -12.99%E -6.77%K -14.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.99%EV -10.11%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.78%EV -15.39%E -5.81%K -9.33%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-02 19:00
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 45.38%EV -13.90%E -7.32%K -15.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.69%EV -13.52%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.93%EV -13.80%E -5.11%K -8.12%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-02 19:00
Betclic (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 45.87%EV -14.81%E -7.88%K -16.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.83%EV -10.11%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.30%EV -14.76%E -5.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-02 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55