The School of Odds
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Lanus v Boca Juniors

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lanus (Local)

Prediction 31.46%3.18fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.485%
Kelly -0.712%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.23%31.59%31.51%34.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.902.923.1337.74%34.43%34.19%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boca Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 35.24%2.84fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.470%
Kelly -0.732%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.91%35.15%35.21%36.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.632.652.8041.67%37.99%37.74%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.29%3.00fair odd
EV +0.541%
Edge +0.179%
Kelly +0.268%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.67%33.26%33.28%34.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.792.813.0241.67%35.81%35.59%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lanus (Local): 31.46%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 35.24%; Draw: 33.29%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.00. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.02, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.541%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.81%EV -4.98%E -1.65%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.81%EV +0.541%E +0.179%K +0.268%G +0.001%4.1%2026-03-04 23:54
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.91%EV -11.90%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.91%EV -1.32%E -0.470%K -0.732%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -1.79%E -0.607%K -0.918%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 23:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.91%EV -11.90%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.91%EV -1.32%E -0.470%K -0.732%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -1.79%E -0.607%K -0.918%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 23:55
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.10%EV -13.47%E -4.90%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.10%EV -3.08%E -1.12%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.79%EV -1.79%E -0.607%K -0.918%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-04 23:55
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -6.60%E -2.49%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -3.45%E -1.19%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-04 23:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -13.47%E -4.90%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -3.08%E -1.12%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -3.45%E -1.19%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-04 23:55
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.25%EV -10.33%E -3.62%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -10.13%E -3.97%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -3.45%E -1.19%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-04 23:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -8.37%E -3.22%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.67%EV -4.45%E -1.55%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-04 23:54
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -6.60%E -2.49%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.22%EV -5.12%E -1.80%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-04 23:44
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -7.18%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.60%E -2.49%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.88%EV -5.12%E -1.80%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 23:49
BetAnything🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -8.37%E -3.22%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.12%E -1.80%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-04 23:54
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -7.18%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.37%E -3.22%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.66%EV -5.12%E -1.80%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-04 23:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.13%EV -16.62%E -6.27%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.13%EV -6.60%E -2.49%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.74%EV -5.12%E -1.80%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-04 23:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.13%EV -16.62%E -6.27%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.13%EV -6.60%E -2.49%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.74%EV -5.12%E -1.80%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-04 23:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -11.90%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.10%EV -11.89%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -5.12%E -1.80%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-04 23:55
Pinnacle🎯3.13I 31.95%NM 30.90%EV -1.52%E -0.485%K -0.712%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.79%EV -2.02%E -0.727%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.30%EV -6.12%E -2.17%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-04 23:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.93%EV -3.09%E -1.00%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.16%EV -4.49%E -1.66%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.91%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-04 23:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.93%EV -3.09%E -1.00%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.16%EV -4.49%E -1.66%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.91%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-04 23:20
Everygame🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -6.60%E -2.49%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-04 23:20
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -7.66%E -2.92%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-04 23:45
NordicBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.00%EV -5.55%E -2.07%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.74%EV -7.45%E -2.68%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-04 23:20
Betsson🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.00%EV -5.55%E -2.07%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.74%EV -7.45%E -2.68%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-04 23:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 31.40%EV -6.55%E -2.21%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.93%EV -5.90%E -2.21%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 33.67%EV -7.78%E -2.81%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-04 23:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 31.69%EV -11.27%E -4.00%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.04%EV -12.59%E -5.08%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.27%EV -7.78%E -2.81%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-04 23:44
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.19%EV -8.37%E -3.22%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -8.45%E -3.07%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-04 23:20
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.64%EV -11.90%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.15%EV -13.65%E -5.57%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.21%EV -8.45%E -3.07%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-04 23:45
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -3.08%E -1.12%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -10.11%E -3.75%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 23:34
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -4.84%E -1.79%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -10.11%E -3.75%K -5.95%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-04 23:35
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.91%EV -6.60%E -2.49%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -10.11%E -3.75%K -5.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-04 23:40
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -9.38%E -3.26%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -7.66%E -2.92%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -12.78%E -4.88%K -7.89%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-04 23:35
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.10%EV -9.38%E -3.26%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -8.37%E -3.22%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -13.44%E -5.17%K -8.40%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-04 23:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.23%EV -9.38%E -3.26%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.28%EV -15.41%E -6.42%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.49%EV -13.44%E -5.17%K -8.40%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-04 23:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 31.91%EV -14.42%E -5.30%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.71%EV -11.89%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.38%EV -13.44%E -5.17%K -8.40%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-04 23:43
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 30.77%EV -15.05%E -5.57%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.62%EV -15.41%E -6.42%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.62%EV -20.10%E -8.37%K -14.36%G +0.000%20.4%2026-03-04 23:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.32%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.05%0.5%2026-03-04 23:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.32%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.05%0.5%2026-03-04 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.32%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.05%0.5%2026-03-04 23:55
Matchbook◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.55%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.48%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97%0.7%2026-03-04 23:55